Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
SAIC, whose stock price rose in succession last week, fell for three consecutive trading days this week. In the case of the outflow of funds from the auto sector, a number of investment institutions gave SAIC a buy rating, and the target price was 29.59 yuan, nearly 40% higher than the current market price. Why?
Overall, the situation of capital flowing out of the auto sector has not changed. Data from the Oriental Wealth Network on December 15 showed that in the top ten lists of net outflows of main funds on the 5th and 10th, automobile vehicles and auto parts were impressively listed. However, some media reported that "on December 8, Orient Securities issued a research report to maintain SAIC's buy rating at a target price of 29.59 yuan." At the same time, SAIC Motor Group has received 5 securities company research reports in the past month, buying 3 and increasing its holdings by 2, with an average target price of 28.79 yuan. ”
After the release of the brokerage rating, SAIC Motor group ushered in a multi-day rise last week, but the group's stock price fell continuously at the beginning of this week. On December 15, SAIC Motor closed at 21.13 yuan, 20% below its target price. Why are brokers still bullish on SAIC in the case of capital outflows?
Orient Securities gave four reasons: "First, SAIC's sales in November met expectations, and the sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high; second, SAIC Volkswagen's sales rebounded month-on-month, and the sales volume of the ID. family continued to grow rapidly; third, SAIC-GM's sales improved month-on-month; fourth, SAIC's own brand sales maintained a year-on-year growth trend." ”
Obviously, the reasons for brokers are mainly from the analysis of product performance in market segments. Since the securities companies analyze the sales volume, we also understand the overall performance of SAIC Motor Group this year from a macro perspective.
From the monthly production and sales express report released by SAIC Motor, it can be seen that in the first four months of this year, the group achieved positive year-on-year sales growth, and sales began to decline year-on-year from May, due to the global chip shortage, and the negative growth continued until November. From the overall trend, SAIC's sales increased by double digits for three consecutive months starting in August, which means that the shortage of chips in the second half of the year has improved.
However, SAIC's sales figures for November are noteworthy: First, it fell by -6.6% year-on-year, lower than the industry average (-5.1% overall increase in passenger cars in November). Second, the month-on-month increase fell sharply to 3.3%, a huge gap from the previous three consecutive months of double-digit month-on-month growth, indicating that the chip problem is still the main factor plaguing the sales growth of this traditional car company.
From the perspective of the capital market, saic's stock price and sales trend this year are basically synchronized, the highest point is in January, reaching 26.7 yuan, after which the stock price is in a downward shock trend. In the first half of the year, SAIC's stock price hovered around the moving average of about 20 yuan most of the time, and the sales volume in August-November increased for four consecutive months, and the stock price gradually went up, but the monthly line, whether it was closed yin or yang, was a form of rushing up and falling, which means that although the fundamentals of the company have improved, investors still have insufficient confidence, so the probability of choosing to sell at a high point is very large.
From the perspective of operating conditions, SAIC Motor's financial report in the first three quarters shows that "the company's operating income from January to September was 538.37 billion yuan, an increase of 11.09% year-on-year; the net profit was 20.35 billion yuan, an increase of 22.24% year-on-year." "In the first three quarters, SAIC's revenue and net profit not only ended two consecutive years of year-on-year decline, but also reached double digits.
However, SAIC's net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters was only 6.942 billion yuan, down 80% year-on-year. The explanation given in the financial report is: "SAIC Motor Group Finance Co., Ltd. issued ABS to replace interbank loan funds in order to meet the capital needs of the loan business and reduce financing costs." ”
Overall, SAIC Motor's operating conditions have improved this year, especially the performance of Chinese brands and new energy vehicles. However, as a traditional oem, SAIC's transformation and upgrading is still in its infancy, and the situation plagued by chip shortages is difficult to change in the short term.
This year, SAIC's stock price has always been in the pressure range, which means that investors have more expectations for SAIC's future development. For example, whether the product structure adjustment can achieve greater results, whether the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 will have a performance beyond expectations; for example, whether Jet Hydrogen Technology can be successfully spun off and listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in the future will become an important factor affecting the rapid breakthrough of the group's stock price and reaching the target price of 29.59 yuan.
The above is a family statement, and everyone is welcome to criticize.
(Image source: Internet)