As we all know, the low-end manufacturing industry has "100 million short sleeves for an airplane", all countries in the world will transfer the low-end manufacturing industry that does not make money after a certain stage of development, such as the United States in the 50s to transfer the textile and steel industry to Japan; in the 70s Japan transferred the toy and clothing industry to the Asian four tigers, etc., they all have to find a balance between the manufacturing industry and industrial upgrading.
Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, our manufacturing situation has been very good, mainly because the epidemic has greatly reduced the operating rate of foreign manufacturing, but the market demand is there. When the epidemic is under control, our manufacturing industry will fall back. I think that the future direction of China's manufacturing industry boils down to eight characters: the potential is huge, and it is not easy to do well. So, where is the future direction of our manufacturing industry?
First, let's take a look at the data: what are the characteristics of the current Chinese manufacturing?
Let's first look at a set of data, as follows:
There are 5 Chinese manufacturing with a global share of more than 50% and 22 Chinese manufacturing with a global share of more than 20%. Chinese manufacturers with a global market share of more than 50% are: Chinese medicine 97%, coal 84%, home appliances 67%, textile 61%, fertilizers and pesticides 52%.
The global market share of 30-50% of Chinese manufacturing is: aluminum 49%, electrical equipment 44%, basic chemicals 43%, wine 43%, steel 40%, building materials 40%, construction machinery heavy trucks 39%, metal non-metallic 32%, industrial machinery 30%, tire rubber 30%.
The global market share of 20-30% of Chinese manufacturing are: electronic components 27%, auto parts 27%, electronic equipment 26%, communication equipment 21%, paper products 21%, food 21%, motorcycles 20%.
In the long run, China's economic development will inevitably extend according to coordinates in the future, and the manufacturing industry will continue to grow larger and larger. Combined with the data, we look at Made in China alone and find several characteristics:
1. After the reform and opening up, the demand for urbanization and industrialization is huge, and the global market share of manufacturing industries related to infrastructure real estate is more than 30%, such as steel, building materials, construction machinery and heavy trucks.
2, China's manufacturing industry with a relatively high market share, in fact, have some technical content and threshold, but the technology intensity is not high, it belongs to the low-level technology-intensive, in the middle and lower reaches of the value chain.
3, the good news is that the proportion of between 20% and 30% of the emergence of some medium and highly technical intensive manufacturing, but not enough, such as electronic components, motor vehicle parts and equipment, electrical equipment, electronic equipment and instruments and communication equipment.
4, highly technology-intensive manufacturing in the global market share are relatively low, such as automobile manufacturing 16%, semiconductor 14%, consumer electronics 11%, aerospace 7%, computer hardware 6%, medical equipment 5%, semiconductor equipment 3%.
5. In the past three years (2017-2020), the fastest increase in global market share of Chinese manufacturing is mainly in the field of electronics and communications, such as semiconductors, electronic manufacturing, electronic components, consumer electronics, communication manufacturing and service support.
Second, to sum up: our manufacturing industry is now very large, but not very strong
There is no doubt that there are still shortcomings and problems in our manufacturing industry in many aspects, which is a fact, and it is not solved in a day or two days or a few slogans, or even a sentence of overtaking in a corner.
However, not all shortcomings and problems really have to be perfectly solved or globally leading, everything must be first, this requirement is definitely too high, and it is not realistic.
At present, there are already a number of enterprises in China doing things in a down-to-earth manner. For example, my brother's factory, I go back every few months to see it differently. Recently saw a video, die casting, to the mouth slag pack, to burr (a separate equipment), three processes and three machines, are a mechanical arm in operation, die casting after the pickup directly to the water mouth slag bag, and then go to play the water mouth slag bag products to take out to the machine to burrs, go to the burr and then take the product out and put the tracks.
This degree of automation has not been seen in Germany, nor has it been seen in China, of course, the number of large die casting plants in Germany and China that I have visited is not much, but there are still some visits.
This month I also chatted with a German professor, also talked about manufacturing, he mentioned that the KUKA was acquired, set off a lot of discussion in Germany, and I also told him about the next few years, I know about some German manufacturing companies that have been acquired by Chinese companies, and then talked about some of the research and development of this piece.
I shared with him an idea that was already in the works, but it was still in its infancy for a variety of reasons, and that was global design, Made in China. This idea has gone through many versions, including agency, technology introduction, acquisition, cooperative research and development, etc., and the current idea is fixed in the stage of "global design, made in China".
So, to sum up, our manufacturing industry is big now, but we are not as strong as big. But fortunately, no matter how many pompous and down-to-earth views and people, our manufacturing industry is progressing, and at present, the country also attaches importance to industry, so the road behind our manufacturing industry may be winding, but the future must be bright.
Third, the way out of the manufacturing industry, there will generally be two ways to go
As far as I know, the global manufacturing industry generally has two ways to go, as follows:
The first way is to rely on demographic dividends, welfare dividends and environmental dividends, etc., at an ultra-low cost to do the world factory, we have relied on this model to achieve rapid GDP growth, but this is not sustainable for a big country with a pursuit, we can not always not treat the bottom as a person, with the development of the economy, all kinds of dividends will disappear, the cost continues to rise, the status of the world's factory will inevitably be replaced by other emerging countries.
The second way is to play high added value, this thing on a few of us to build out, others who are not good to make, as long as I do not sell too outrageous you have to buy, the global harvest of profits, such as high-precision machine tools, passenger aircraft engines and CNC tools, etc., in this regard we are almost meaning, can sell to the world's high value-added industrial products are really not much.
That is to say, our situation now is backed by a cliff, the road ahead is difficult, and we are in a dilemma. Retirement is certainly impossible, the labor force is reduced, social security continues to improve, wages continue to increase, environmental protection is more and more important, carbon peak carbon neutrality is proposed, are doomed to us can no longer take the old road of low-end manufacturing, can only take the high-end route.
The problem is that it is also more difficult to enter, manufacturing is different from emerging industries, the history of manufacturing development is too long, if you start from the watt to improve the steam engine, it has been more than 240 years.
Industry development is not running a marathon, but mountaineering, it is the same as climbing Mount Everest, the more up the slower it is, others start climbing more than 100 years earlier than us, when people climb to 7000 meters, we start to chase, refer to their route, it took decades to chase from sea level to 7000 meters, at this time we think that the distance is very close, even if the difference of 1000 meters to climb up is also difficult, it is really difficult to climb and dangerous, one direction did not choose tens of billions of research and development funds and high-quality students and other payments on the water.
Many emerging industries, such as mobile payment or electric vehicles, we can catch up with and surpass developed countries in Europe and the United States in a short period of time, but the more basic manufacturing industry is more difficult to chase, we as a steel country, the output in the world sideways, but every year to import a lot of pressure vessels with steel plates, such as gas turbines, etc., can be imagined.
Finally, where is the way out for our manufacturing industry?
Let me first say the most optimistic side, that is, the legendary success of industrial upgrading, that is only to let us occupy a place in the world's high-end manufacturing industry, note, that is a place, not as many people think, let the developed countries work for us, as strong as the United States, it is impossible to monopolize the entire high-end industry.
You know, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France and Britain, these developed countries, also to occupy a place, the lithography machine is made in the Netherlands, the chip is made in Taiwan and South Korea, we are best to have a high-end share like Germany or Japan in the future. For a country with a large size, only a small number of people can live better, most people can not enjoy this dividend, just like Huawei and other large factories employees make money, the direct impact on you is that the house price is more expensive.
Therefore, we hope to rely on industrial upgrading to solve the current economic and social problems, which is just wishful thinking. And don't always want to unabashedly become the idea of becoming a shredder in a developed country, have always wanted to go their own way, so that the developed countries have no way to go, they are not stupid, they are very clear about this, and will also join hands to hinder our industrial upgrading, which has now begun, and will only become more intense in the future, and finally as long as it can become Japan and Germany, it is the upper limit, and it is also the most optimistic possibility.
The low-end manufacturing industry, due to the rise in labor costs and the reduction of labor, will slowly shrink, because the manufacturing industry is globally priced. In the foreseeable future, engaged in low-end manufacturing can not have rich interests, earn hard money, in the case of young people generally lying flat is the best way out, the weak trend of low-end manufacturing is difficult to reverse, once less than a certain scale, it will lose the advantages of the industrial chain. In the long run, India and Africa, among others, are likely to share our share.
For smart manufacturing with high hopes, I think it is not all opportunities. The reason why we have become the world's factory is because the labor cost is cheap, in the field of technology and talent, or developed countries have obvious advantages, once the intelligent manufacturing technology matures, the dependence on labor is reduced, the low-end manufacturing industry in developed countries will be revitalized.
Therefore, in the future, we face the threat of difficult industrial upgrading, low-cost other developing countries and high-tech developed countries jointly dividing up the world's factory share, and the domestic labor costs rise and the willingness to work will decrease, which will exacerbate this threat.
On the eve of this major change, we cannot change the external environment, let alone change the trend of science and technology and history, and the only thing we can do is to make up our minds to solve the problem of high-quality development, reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, and at the limited level of productive forces, so that every chinese person can live a relatively stable life, which is completely achievable.
Finally, as for catching up with the British Super Beauty, it can only be a natural process, achieving the best, and there is no need to deliberately achieve it, because it will inevitably sacrifice too many things.
Final words: our annual scientific research investment is the second in the world, the actual investment in all aspects of resources has exceeded the United States, in time, the high-tech field to divide the market share, and even eat all should be expected.
Our manufacturing industry will inevitably continue to develop, but it will be completely different from the current pattern, the most optimistic situation in the future is the synchronous development of high-end manufacturing, but first survive the current period of struggle. For an industry, 50 years at a time, may not be able to complete a technology iteration. But for a person, 50 years is a person's entire career.
That is to say, our manufacturing industry has a long way to go, but now at this point in time into the manufacturing industry, there is a high probability that it will become a stepping stone for the future of China's manufacturing industry, there are still many people who have the consciousness to use their lives to pave the way for future generations, talent is the foundation of an industry, fortunately, our manufacturing industry will never lack young people with enthusiasm.