author
Zhang Zhidong
Although LG New Energy has returned to the top ten in China, it is still difficult to change the "top-heavy" pattern in today's power battery market.
Responsible editor 丨cha Youyin
Edit 丨 Chic
On December 7, according to foreign media sources, LG New Energy is seeking an IPO (initial public offering) of 12.75 trillion won (about 73.785 billion yuan), which is the largest in South Korea's history, and even more than twice the size of Samsung Life's 4.9 trillion won IPO in 2010.
However, just when the news of LG New Energy's upcoming IPO came, it has been silent in China's power battery market for a long time, and it has also broken the silence for 3 consecutive months and returned to the list of the top ten power battery companies.
Although the beginning and end of the GM "fire" recall are still reverberating, LG New Energy, which is making a comeback with the IPO, is undoubtedly a new attitude: even if it must confront such a strong "indigenous" as the Ningde era, LG New Energy will not willingly give up the Chinese market easily.
In fact, it is not only LG New Energy that wants to "grab food", whether it is just established a 600GWh target, the honeycomb energy that has been raised 6 billion, or the Guoxuan Hi-Tech that is starting to expand production capacity, etc., but also targets the surging demand for power batteries in China.
According to the latest November domestic power battery enterprise loading data, it can be clearly seen that LG New Energy ranked tenth, Zhongxin Aviation and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, as well as Ningde Times and BYD companies that sit firmly on diaoyutai.
And it is not difficult to find that compared with the loading volume in October, the performance of major power battery companies has improved significantly. However, from the perspective of market share, the "top-heavy" market structure has not been changed. Even if LG New Energy is ready to return, it is difficult to break this "solidified" market.
01
King Ning "one against nine"
Overall, the new energy vehicle market in November, the power battery market, is much better than the market environment in October. In particular, the achievements of "Wei Xiaoli" have broken through the delivery volume of 10,000 units, which is enough to show that the new energy vehicle market is hot and strongly correlated, and the power battery market has also gained new increments.
From the data point of view, in November, the monthly loading volume of power batteries in the country exceeded 20GWh for the first time, reaching the scale of 20.8GWh, up 96.2% year-on-year and 35.1% month-on-month. Among them, with an installed capacity of 11.45GWh, CATL achieved 55% of the market share in one fell swoop, once again achieving the achievement of "one against nine".
And even in the total installed volume from January to November, the Ningde era has officially continued to stage the drama of "master loneliness" with a market share of more than 50%.
It is not difficult to foresee that if there is no strong factor intervention, the top five companies in the loading volume of domestic power battery companies in 2021 can also be regarded as having been pre-booked: the first Ningde era, the second BYD, the third Zhongxin Airlines, the fourth guoxuan hi-tech, and the fifth LG new energy.
The reason why such a prediction can be made is mainly related to the general environment of the power battery market. It is no exaggeration to say that the Ningde era will be in a state of "one against nine" for a long time, the fundamentals of BYD and Zhongxin Airlines will not suddenly collapse in the last month, Guoxuan Hi-Tech has the support of the Volkswagen ID. series, and LG New Energy also has Tesla's favor.
However, it should be noted that the ternary battery route mainly operated by LG New Energy is at a disadvantage in the technical route competition in the domestic market. After the release of the data in November, lithium iron phosphate batteries have achieved an all-round catch-up with ternary batteries in terms of output, monthly loading, and total loading.
But on the other hand, the ever-expanding capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries will really be a good thing?
02
Be wary of the lithium iron phosphate capacity trap
In terms of output, in November 2021, the domestic power battery production totaled 28.2GWh, an increase of 121.8% year-on-year and 12.4% month-on-month. When calculated together with the data of 20.8 GWh of vehicle load in November, the loading ratio (the ratio of loading volume to production) only reached 73.76%.
In other words, such a proportion of power batteries has already had signs of "overcapacity". If you specifically go to the ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries themselves, it is easier to see the problem of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In November, the output of ternary batteries was 10.4GWh, the loading capacity was 9.2GWh, and the installation-production ratio reached 88.46%; while the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 17.8GWh, and the loading capacity was 11.6GWh, and the corresponding loading and production ratio was only 65.17%.
The numerical embodiment of 73.76%, 88.46%, and 65.17% of the three different installation and production ratios is enough to show that compared with ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries are more serious overcapacity, and even far exceed the "mean" level of 73.76%.
However, it is not difficult to find that the production capacity that major power battery companies are actively expanding is still dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries. If you think about the reasons carefully, it is nothing more than the word "interest".
Compared with ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries are cheaper and safer, coupled with the concept of electrification, the market demand for entry-level models of new energy vehicles has been further expanded. Under this circumstance, the lithium iron phosphate battery has returned to the center of the stage.
However, although the current market level is still a thriving scene, the trap of overcapacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been revealed.
According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, BYD, AVIC Lithium Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Honeycomb Energy and other power battery companies have announced nearly 30 battery expansion projects, with a total investment of more than 300 billion yuan, and the new production capacity is expected to be 1000GWh, which is about 10 times the total installed vehicle volume this year.
Although there is a certain time cycle from new production capacity to official production, there is no doubt that over time, a large number of power battery production capacity is bound to be further released. At that time, the lithium iron phosphate battery that is being focused on will inevitably have overcapacity, and the situation after that can be imagined: vicious competition, quality decline, backward production capacity clearance...
In the words of industry insiders, behind the high prosperity of the industry is often the product price increase brought about by the short-term mismatch between supply and demand, but this cycle is not sustainable. And it is obvious that with the promotion of high profits, power battery companies have stepped up the operation of expanding production and capacity, which has laid the foundation for "overcapacity".
At present, the market demand is indeed very large, but it must be recognized that the market needs high-quality production capacity, not the accumulation of backward production capacity. In other words, cheap and competitive power batteries have more markets, especially when the industry cycle enters the downturn again, and the backward production capacity is likely to be cleared.
At that time, I am afraid that the ternary battery, which is now being "scorned" by people, will become a technical route with more development potential; and LG new energy may also achieve more competitive advantages in the domestic market of "one super and many strong".
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