Hydrogen energy, high heat, zero pollution, abundant reserves, can be called the light of human energy.
As early as 2000, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles stood on the same running line as pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Hydrogen vehicles represent the future development direction of clean cars and have once become a consensus.
However, 20 years later, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in November 2021, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles reached 372,000 and 361,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times year-on-year; the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 212 and 147 units, down 26.4% and 49.3% year-on-year, respectively.
On December 14, Toyota launched 15 electric models and announced that by 2030, the Lexus brand will achieve 100% electrification in Europe, North America and China.
The chief drivers of hydrogen energy vehicles are also beginning to turn to electrification, which has become a more certain future.
However, human use of energy has shifted from the pursuit of energy density to low-carbon and carbon-free. Among them, there are cost trade-offs, safety considerations, technological limits, and a green future.
China has committed to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality by 2030 and 2060. Full-cycle low energy consumption, carbon-free is inevitable, hydrogen energy is undoubtedly the future.
1
The hydrogen fuel cell problem has yet to be solved
Hydrogen energy has a green advantage first.
According to Bloomberg's forecast, by 2040, the proportion of electricity consumption of new energy vehicles in China's total social electricity consumption will rise sharply from the current 1.3% to 8%. In China, coal power accounts for more than 60%. A major criticism of electric vehicles is also "dirty electricity", and the whole cycle is the transfer of carbon emissions.
At the same time, refueling, like hydrogenation, takes a short time and solves the anxiety of electric vehicles. The "energy density" of hydrogen energy is also well received.
The difference between power batteries and fuel cells is: one is an energy storage device, and the important indicator of measurement is energy density; one is an energy production device, and the basic indicator of measuring the power production capacity of fuel cells is power density.
Fuel cell systems include stacks and hydrogen systems, the principle of operation is: hydrogen and oxygen enter from the inlet of the stack, through a certain electrochemical reaction to generate an electric current, driving the vehicle to drive. Without increasing the weight or volume of the system, further increase in the range of the FC-EV requires a more efficient hydrogen storage system.
Most of the electric vehicles are power batteries, and 60% of the total cost of hydrogen energy vehicles is the fuel cell system.
High prices and dependence on imports, which bring cost issues, limit the popularity of hydrogen energy vehicles.
"A hundred thousand is a step, a million is a step. With each step in vehicle size, the cost of fuel cell systems drops by about 50 percent. ”
From production to transportation to application, the proportion of energy loss that may be caused by the link during the period is too large and does not have economy. In addition, the cost of hydrogen refueling stations can only effectively reduce costs when the scale of hydrogen energy vehicles reaches more than millions.
In the context of carbon neutrality, by carbon-free standards, only "green hydrogen" is hydrogen that meets the standards. The hydrogen production method of green hydrogen, which is more mature at present, is the proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen, and the catalysis cost of proton exchange membrane and platinum electrode is high.
That is to say, scale brings cost reduction, and high cost limits its scale, which makes the popularity of hydrogen energy vehicles an unsolvable problem.
Another issue is security.
Hydrogen energy vehicles are composed of hydrogen storage areas, batteries and inverters in the middle, fuel cells and power in the front. In fuel cell vehicles, the place where hydrogen remains is mainly the battery stack and the hydrogen storage tank.
Under the ideal of theory, the battery stack is just a place where hydrogen and oxygen undergo electrochemical reactions, and does not store energy itself, and once a hydrogen leak is detected, the hydrogen/air can be quickly cut off.
However, hydrogen is a flammable and explosive dangerous goods, in operation, whether it is hydrogen processing, or hydrogenation process, due to improper operation safety problems occur repeatedly, so that consumers form a hydrogen = dangerous cognition, greatly limiting its popularity.
2
Who pays?
The biggest risk for technology companies is the uncertainty of technology itself. Whether it is the wrong technology tree or the zeroing after the technical iteration, under the big wave, the probability of casualties is too high.
Market expectations coupled with technological advances have brought prosperity to the entire industry. Electric vehicles have taken the lead in maturing, and market expectations have amplified their certainty, making hydrogen energy vehicles even more bleak.
In terms of sales, in 2020, global electric vehicle sales exceeded 3 million, an increase of about 40% year-on-year, while hydrogen energy vehicles were less than 10,000.
European and American manufacturers choose the electric route, bet on hydrogen energy of Japanese companies are ridiculed wrong technology tree, the overall situation requires car manufacturers to make a choice, when the traditional car factory has not yet caught up with the electrification trend, hydrogen energy can only be set aside.
At present, the application of hydrogen energy vehicles is mainly in heavy trucks, operating vehicles, etc., especially heavy trucks affected by the switching of emission standards. In the context of carbon peaking, hydrogen fuel cells are undoubtedly the best choice to reduce heavy truck pollutants and carbon emissions.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first eight months of this year, among the sales of new energy heavy trucks, the sales of pure electric heavy trucks were 2792 vehicles, accounting for 87.3%, down 11.42% year-on-year; fuel cell heavy truck sales were 389 vehicles, accounting for 12.16%, an increase of 11.58% year-on-year.
Hydrogen energy heavy trucks are far inferior to pure electric heavy trucks in terms of sales volume and growth rate. The difficulty of hydrogenation is also one of the reasons, relevant data show that there are currently 69 hydrogen refueling stations in China, and there are nearly 100 hydrogen refueling stations under construction. The completion of supporting infrastructure will further promote the popularization of hydrogen energy vehicles.
At present, the sales of hydrogen energy heavy trucks also mainly rely on financial subsidies, and it is estimated that this market will not develop rapidly on a large scale until 2025.
However, if hydrogen energy wants to go further, the popularity of hydrogen energy in passenger vehicles is essential.
Honda hydrogen fuel cell vehicles sold only 240 units worldwide in 2020, and only 1900 cumulative sales. The global sales of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Toyota Mirai are only 1770 units, down nearly 30% from last year.
The trend of electrification and intelligence in the automotive field, driven by Tesla and other enterprises, has truly attracted a group of purchasing power, which is also the premise of the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of electric vehicles.
Hydrogen energy vehicles need such a group of people who eat grapes first.
3
Hydrogen energy vehicles need "Tesla"
Looking back at the development process of electric vehicles in China, according to the "Automobile Industry Development Plan" released by the Chinese government in 2009, the output of new energy vehicles based on pure electric vehicles will reach 500,000 in 2011, accounting for 5% of the total sales of automobiles; but until the end of 2013, only thousands of pure electric vehicles were really sold to consumers.
By the end of 2012, orders for the Model S model reached 15,000 units. Tesla's success means that electric vehicles have the conditions for commercialization.
In 2019, the penetration rate of electric vehicles reached 10%, and the new energy industry, which has been hyped since 2013, has begun to become a trend.
Electric vehicles that failed to succeed by relying on policy subsidies were ultimately popularized under the Tesla effect and by market role, and since 2014, xiaopeng, Weilai, and ideals have been born.
Faced with two major problems hindering the popularity of electric vehicles: cost and energy density, Tesla starts from the high-end market and solves the problem of high cost with brand premium; at the same time, it relies on its innovation in battery system and management technology to solve the problem of endurance.
The full-value chain business model created by Tesla has made Tesla different from traditional cars and established another set of evaluation standard systems.
Being tested by the market is the first step. After the technical iteration, with reference to the experience of traditional automobile manufacturers, we will continue to use the mature supply chain system to reduce costs and achieve popularization from the high-end market to the mass market.
After a new product form is recognized by the market, the infrastructure required will also keep up. As of May 2021, the cumulative number of charging infrastructure in China has reached 1.870 million units.
The hydrogen energy car that represents the future is also waiting for a catfish like Tesla, waiting for the arrival of the inflection point.
At present, the purchase cost of fuel cell commercial vehicles is more than 2.5 times that of fuel vehicles. How to commercialize and apply it is a major problem that plagues global producers.
In addition to the promotion of technology, the exploration of business models has not stopped. Similar to NIO's battery swap model (battery part is leased), Nikola has launched a bundled rental program where customers can choose to lease 700,000 miles of vehicles, including trucks, hydrogen fuel, repairs and maintenance.
In this model, the cost of use is about 6.59 yuan / mile, slightly lower than the 6.73 yuan / mile of traditional diesel vehicles.
The company expects to start production of the beta fuel cell truck model in mid-2021, the gamma version in mid-2022, and the official mass production in 2023.
Jeremy Rifkin, author of The Third Industrial Revolution: "When the three elements of transportation, communication and energy change at the same time, it also means that a new economic system is taking shape. ”
Of course, stable energy is still necessary to have a new form of energy, and only a breakthrough in controlled nuclear fusion in nuclear power can be called a real new energy.
What if?
END