Text/Tao Luo Brother
Following the reduction of mortgage interest rates, today, Shenzhen ushered in another blockbuster news.
Shenzhen new energy vehicles relaxed the purchase restriction policy, canceled the 2-year limit of social security, and the preferential policy lasted until the end of next year!
For the new Shenzhen people, there is no need to suffer from the social security years, nor do they have to fight with the lottery army, and the threshold for car purchase has been reduced a lot at once.
In Shenzhen, where license plates are almost more expensive than cars, pieces of green cards falling from the sky will greatly stimulate the new energy vehicle market next year and drive economic growth.
In order to peek at the leopard, the country's major first- and second-tier cities have gradually relaxed the purchase restriction policy for new energy vehicles, and the sales of new energy vehicles have picked up.
However, in contrast, the new energy vehicle stocks in the capital market have been pulling back one after another.
The market is to the left, the stock price is to the right, and the uneven cold and heating phenomenon in the new energy vehicle market appears, what is the mystery behind it?
01
According to the production and sales data of the China Automobile Association, in November this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 400,000 units, and the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 17.8%.
From January to November this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was nearly 3 million, and the more than 3 million new energy vehicles were mainly digested by the first and second-tier large cities in the country.
In terms of specific cities, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Chongqing and Suzhou ranked in the top 10.
According to statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, Shanghai's new energy passenger car sales reached 186,000 units, Shenzhen 116,000 units, Beijing 102,000 units, Hangzhou and Guangzhou all exceeded 80,000 units.
Shanghai has Tesla's headquarters, which has certain production and sales advantages, while Shenzhen has BYD headquarters, and sales have risen from the third last year to the second.
Beijing fell from second to third, mainly because Beijing implements incremental restrictions on new energy passenger cars every year, and it is difficult to apply for lottery numbers.
It can be seen that the current auction price of License Plates in Shanghai has exceeded 90,000, and Shenzhen is also moving towards 50,000, Hangzhou 30,000, and Guangzhou 20,000.
With the increase in total demand for cars and the high price of blue brand auctions, the proportion of new energy vehicles in these major cities will continue to rise in the future.
From the perspective of specific best-selling brands, BYD ranks first, Tesla ranks second, SAIC-GM-Wuling, GAC, Xiaopeng, Great Wall, Geely, and Weilai rank high.
In terms of new car-making forces, Tesla is included, and the insurance data in November is a total of 92486 units, accounting for about 25.2% of the entire new energy market.
The three musketeers of new energy vehicles ranked first, Xiaopeng first, ideal second, and Weilai third.
Although the epidemic and chip shortage have made the internal and external environment of the automobile market severe, from the data point of view, the sales volume of China's new energy vehicle market is still rising.
In addition to volkswagen's acceptance of new energy vehicles, it is also inseparable from policy guidance and support.
In 2019, the State Council has clearly pointed out: "All localities must not impose restrictions on new energy vehicles and purchase restrictions, and those that have been implemented should be cancelled." ”
In November this year, the General Office of the State Council issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", which mentions:
The development of new energy vehicles is the only way for China to move from an automobile power to an automobile power, and it is a strategic measure to cope with climate change and promote green development.
From the perspective of stimulating domestic demand and promoting economic growth and carbon reduction, it is imperative to develop new energy vehicles.
02
Before the sales of new energy vehicles, the new energy sector was already the most beautiful boy in the capital market.
Vehicle manufacturing or battery energy storage, anyway, is a word, fire.
For example, Musk, who has just been elected Time Magazine's 2021 Person of the Year, was evaluated as:
As the richest man in the world, he doesn't have a house and has been selling off his property lately. He drives a car of his own making that requires no gasoline and hardly a driver. With a flick of his finger, the stock market will skyrocket or plummet.
Tesla shares tumbled after reaching an all-time high of $1243.49 on Nov. 4.
It fell 12 percent on Nov. 9 and fell to a recent low of $950.5 on Dec. 6, with a maximum drop of 23.56 percent.
According to Tesla's price-earnings ratio, it is now more than 300 times, even if it falls by 80%, it must be more than 70 times the valuation.
The combined market capitalization of global car companies may be just half of Tesla's.
Even if it is the leader of the new energy industry, Tesla's valuation is a little unreasonable, becoming a cliff landscape.
Following Tesla's footsteps, there are also China's three major new car-making forces.
On the 13th, the US stock Weilai fell nearly 2%, the Hong Kong stock Xiaopeng and the ideal fell by more than 3%, and the A-share Ningde era also fell today.
It can be seen that the capital market has overdrawn the expectations of new energy vehicles in advance, resulting in the current technical bear market in the sector.
03
The market is to the left and the stock price is to the right.
In the end, it is a mismatch between performance and valuation.
In the context of global carbon neutrality, new energy vehicles have slowly performed better. However, the capital market, which is good at telling stories and blowing bubbles, has inflated the benefits of new energy vehicles thousands of times and tens of thousands of times in advance.
Now, the highly valued new energy vehicle sector is facing a return in value, the decline is actually not a bad thing, the bubble is squeezed out, and there will be better development in the future.
Just as smartphones replaced traditional phones, Apple beat Nokia, and Apple became the world's largest technology company by market capitalization.
In the future, smart new energy vehicles will replace traditional fuel vehicles, and it will not be difficult for performance sales to surpass Apple.
With the support of real performance, it is estimated that more high-market value car companies will be born.