Since the emergence of the new crown epidemic, in addition to strict anti-epidemic measures, vaccines and drugs have also been the focus of people's attention. In this regard, the international pharmaceutical giants are even more critical to the second, and have been competing, who can come up with more effective vaccines and drugs first, who can earn more and overwhelm the opponent.
At present, the vaccine has basically matured, and the vaccination rate in many countries has exceeded 80%, and oral drugs have become a new battlefield.
Merck and Pfizer new crown oral drugs came out
On November 4, the new coronavirus oral drug molnupiravir developed by pharmaceutical giant Merck was approved for marketing in the United Kingdom. The UK became the first country in the world to approve an oral COVID-19 drug.
Molnupiravir is the world's first oral drug to treat COVID-19. A month ago, the results of Merck's mid-term trial showed that taking the drug within five days of covid-19 symptoms reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by 50 percent. Only one month after the results of the mid-term trial were announced, the UK drug regulator approved the drug.
Following the approval of Merck's new crown oral drug in the United Kingdom, Pfizer also released the latest research data on its oral drug on November 5.
Pfizer said that compared with placebo, its COVID-19 oral trial drug taken within three days of symptoms reduced the probability of hospitalization or death in mild and moderate adult patients by 89%. This is already much better than Merck's drugs, which can only reduce the probability of hospitalization or death by 50%.
After the announcement of Pfizer oral drug, Pfizer's stock price in the United States soared, closing up 10.88% to $48.62, and the market value increased by $26.8 billion to $272.6 billion. While other vaccine stocks, Biontch plunged more than 20 percent, while Modena and Novavac Pharmaceuticals fell more than 10 percent.
Drugs are more valuable than vaccines to end the COVID-19 pandemic. Oral medications are faster and more convenient than vaccinations, and you can buy them yourself at a pharmacy. Just like we are now faced with a cold, we only need to buy some cold medicine, not get the flu vaccine. Covid-19 will eventually become like a cold.
The dark war of pharmaceutical giants: the epidemic has changed the pattern of the pharmaceutical industry
After the emergence of the new crown epidemic, companies that develop vaccines have made a lot of money. In particular, the market capitalizations of both Modena and Biontech have risen more than 10 times. The original small company Modena has thrown off large pharmaceutical companies such as Squibb and Sanofi, and has almost become one of the world's top ten pharmaceutical companies, while Pfizer relies on vaccines to approach the world's largest pharmaceutical company.
Modena is the biggest beneficiary of COVID-19. Founded in 2010, the company develops technologies and drugs based on messenger ribonucleic acid (MRNA). Unlike Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca, which have other pharmaceutical products besides vaccines, Modena currently only has one product, the NEW CROWN vaccine, so the business prospects are closely related to the sales of the NEW CROWN vaccine.
The recently released list of the 400 richest people in the United States, Modena chairman Affyn, co-founder Lange, and early investor Springer all made the list for the first time, of which Affyan's wealth is close to $5 billion, Lange is $4.9 billion, and Springer is $5.9 billion.
Modena's profit on vaccines could be as high as $14 billion, while the company's total revenue in 2019 was just $60 million. Over the past year, with the spread of the new crown epidemic, Modena's market value has risen from more than $2 billion, and the highest market value was close to $200 billion.
Modena's latest financial statements show revenue of $4.4 billion in the second quarter of this year, well above the $67 million in the same period last year; profit in the first six months of this year was $4 billion, compared with a loss of $240 million in the first half of last year. According to Modena's previous estimates, the COVID-19 vaccine will bring the company at least $20 billion in revenue this year, making it one of the most profitable medical products in the United States to date.
At present, the vaccination of all countries in the world is paid by the state, and there is no charge for individuals, and China is jointly borne by the medical insurance fund and the finance. Kexing and Sinopharm vaccines are given in equal amounts. Sinopharm did not publish profit data, and it can be deduced from the 2021 semi-annual report released by China Biopharmaceutical Company that the net profit of Kexing Zhongwei in the first half of 2021 was 50 billion yuan. That is to say, the net profit of kexing and Sinopharm in the vaccine for the whole year may exceed 100 billion.
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about dramatic changes in the international pharmaceutical industry. Pharmaceutical giants without COVID-19 vaccines and oral drugs were forgotten in this feast, while giants such as Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson further strengthened their lead.
After the new crown oral drugs come out, the new crown vaccine companies will face a huge impact. Modena's market value has cut from a high of $200 billion to less than $100 billion, and Pfizer not only has vaccines, but also more effective drugs, And Modena's revenue and profit will be impacted. Domestic Kexing and Sinopharm are also facing the same problem, and they need to develop drugs as soon as possible to maintain their current market position.
Will the COVID-19 pandemic end abruptly?
The outbreak was a rehearsal, albeit with serious consequences, leading to a global recession and self-isolation between countries. But it has also greatly improved the emergency relief and social mobilization capabilities of countries.
For a sudden unknown virus, human beings quickly took various public health emergency measures, and completed the genome structure, pathological analysis, vaccine and drug research and development in the shortest possible time. In the future, when human society faces a similar public health crisis, it will be more comfortable to face it.
The COVID-19 pandemic could also suddenly disappear like SARS. Japanese scientists have shown that the new coronavirus is dying on its own. After peaking in August, the number of cases in Japan has fallen from 25,000 new cases per day to about 200 new cases per day. A team of researchers from the National Institute of Genetics and Niigata University in Japan found that in the genome of the Delta variant strain, an enzyme called "nsp14" mutated, causing the virus to fail to complete repair in time, resulting in the virus self-extinction.
This reminds us of the SARS outbreak of that year, sars first appeared in November 2002, and then spread rapidly in 29 countries and territories, but by July 2003 there were no more new cases. During the SARS period, no country developed specific drugs and vaccines from beginning to end, and the results suddenly disappeared.
In fact, a new virus that comes into contact with the human body will have a high fatality rate in the early stage, but it will continue to mutate until it is no longer rejected with the human body and can coexist. In other words, even without vaccines and drugs, the COVID-19 epidemic will gradually disappear, because the mutant viruses that can cause death will also die out on their own, and only those mutated viruses that are milder to the human body will survive.
Of course, with the current medical and scientific progress of mankind, we do not need to wait for the epidemic to disappear on its own. The emergence of so many vaccines and drugs in just one or two years has proved the great achievements of human medical development.
For the new crown oral drug, Chinese pharmaceutical companies will also quickly catch up with international pharmaceutical giants such as Pfizer like last year's vaccine research and development. Even Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of Global, has publicly shouted that he is willing to believe that the actual efficacy of Pfizer oral drugs is true, and cheer for Sinopharm and other Chinese pharmaceutical companies. Sooner or later, China will open up, and it is inseparable from the escort of pharmaceutical companies.
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Shanglin Academy: Yang Fei, Doctor of Economics, University Teacher, In-depth Observation of Industrial Economics and Financial Events.