The dream of a big country and a strong country can be put aside for the time being, but only to ensure that small and medium-sized enterprises and low- and middle-income people survive is imminent, and a day cannot be delayed, and there can be no luck at all! As Premier Keqiang said: As long as small and medium-sized enterprises have breath, they must find ways to save their lives.
Text: Zhao Xiao Responsible Editor: Li Jing
Both China's economy and the world economy are facing the ravages of a "global pandemic." This is a once-in-a-century shock, and the consequences of the destruction of life and wealth may be even greater than the sum of the two world wars.
About 15 million people died, 20 million were injured and about $270 billion in property damage in World War I.
About 55-60 million people died, 130 million were injured and about $4 trillion in property damage in World War II.
Under the impact of the new crown virus, the total assets of 195 countries in the world are 320 trillion US dollars, which has fallen by 140 trillion US dollars in 1 month, almost half of the wealth accumulated by human beings in the past millennium; in terms of life threats, if the current daily new infection rate is growing, it is not excluded that the "new crown virus" can infect 4 billion people around the world within dozens of days, resulting in the death of 40 million to 80 million people.
The earth is not big, it is a village. Now, the whole village's house is in the sea of fire, and life is in the sea of blood. In 100 years around the world, is there anything bigger than that?
1
The Chinese must abandon their illusions immediately!
A recession in the global economy in 2020 is a foregone conclusion, and there is debate about whether it will bring about a "Great Depression", that is, a sustained recession.
But now, many people still have to dream, even thinking too much, too complicated, too good!
For example, some people think that China first controlled the epidemic, and then China's economy will first recover and stabilize, then the most beautiful thing in the world is us.
Some people think "deeper and farther", seeing that the US imperialists on the other side of the ocean cannot even stand steadily, and the European Union has also fallen. Simply, we will not stop doing two things, take China's "supply chain advantage" as a weapon to subdue the nations, destroy the dollar hegemony in one fell swoop, and "eliminate US imperialism"; we not only win the "virus war", but also take the opportunity to turn the "trade war" upside down, and take the US imperialism in the global leadership, then the world is not ours?
Friend, wake up, where do you want to go?! The world in front of us is an unprecedented world of turmoil, uneasiness and strife, and the survival of Chinese enterprises, Chinese people and the Chinese nation is the last word, as for development and rise, it is still a little leisurely. The practice of the past few years, as well as the practice of the past 70 years, has continuously proved that there is no need to pay taxes for wild thinking and blowing seas, but it will really find disasters.
You must know that China's current international environment is very dangerous. The global economy has fallen into recession, what about China's foreign trade? Without orders, how can a large number of Enterprises in China that rely on foreign trade to feed themselves live? At present, the global plague is still spreading, as long as the crisis of one country is not lifted, other countries can not be left alone, can China "close the country" for a long time, how much does the cost? The epidemic has not yet passed, China's relations with the United States and Europe, the Middle East and even with overseas Chinese in china have been in an unprecedented state of crisis, the "trust assets" accumulated in the past 40 years of reform and opening up are being rapidly depleted, what kind of consequences will be after the epidemic, is it not worth pondering?
The outside world is not at peace, and the inner world is not at peace. If the decades of reform and opening up are the era of "wealth rising tide", then these years have already entered the era of "wealth ebb tide", the evaporation of a large number of rich people (from trillionaires to hundreds of billionaires to tens of billionaires and billionaires), a large number of middle classes have become proletarians, and the risk of proletarian extreme poverty ... Now, under the impact of the virus, another round of violent tsunami and "great flood" to eliminate wealth has come. To live, not to show off your might, is the last word!
What followed the global "Great Plague"? Could it be the "Great Famine"? What followed the "Great Famine", and will there be local conflicts or even "world wars" in the world? "I'd rather be a peaceful dog than a chaotic world", what kind of crazy person will look forward to the chaos in the world and "lest the world not be chaotic"?
Now, starting with Vietnam, many countries are restricting grain exports, globalization is reversing, and the external environment of "peace and development" is being lost; countries, especially China and the United States, are falling into an era of mutual distrust, taking the ground into a prison, and may even evolve into an era of mutual accusations and confrontation. Although China has a strong advantage in the industrial chain in the manufacturing industry, it also has weaknesses and "fatal disadvantages". We are highly dependent on mutual trust and overall security in our global supply chains, whether it is the food of our destiny, the indispensable petroleum energy, and the traction of high-end manufacturing. China's supply chain is strongly dependent on the world, while the global supply chain to China is only weakly dependent. If you use the supply chain as a weapon, are you not afraid that people will also use the supply chain as a weapon to fight back?
The zero-sum game of "initiator, its no consequences", "beggar-thy-neighbor" and "you die and I live" has caused world wars in history. Who can be sure that we must be the winner?
2
At present, to protect small and medium-sized enterprises and the bottom group, there is no fluke!
Well, back to the harsh reality, although the epidemic in China has eased, it may make a comeback at any time. How to strike a balance between security of life, economic recovery, and social stability? Such a choice is enough of a headache.
What is certain is that the period of stabilizing the epidemic at any cost has passed, and now What China needs to seek is no longer the epidemic above all else, but the goal of balancing the three and maximizing social welfare. So, how to ensure economic recovery under the premise of stabilizing the epidemic? A lot of people are talking about old infrastructure, new infrastructure, and loose monetary policy right now. However, whether it is infrastructure construction or loans, the biggest beneficiaries will always be state-owned enterprises and large enterprises, and every time without exception, it will lead to the country's advance and the people's retreat, and the country's prosperity and the people's poverty. Therefore, this round of decision-making undoubtedly needs to "evolve" and progress!
At present, the most important thing is not to maintain growth, but to let small and medium-sized enterprises and the bottom population survive first.
Everyone has seen the following data disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: at the end of 2018, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises in China exceeded 30 million, and the number of individual industrial and commercial households exceeded 70 million, which only occupied 40.7% of the balance of all enterprise loans in China, but contributed 43% of the country's foreign trade (rising to become the largest import and export entity), more than 50% of tax revenue, more than 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation achievements and more than 80% of labor employment.
The biggest impact of the epidemic is these small and medium-sized enterprises in China that are hard-working and hard-working, and 85% of them are hanging on the line, and most of them can't carry April.
According to a joint survey conducted by Tsinghua Peking University some time ago, 60% of small and medium-sized enterprises are expected to decline by more than 20% in 2020; 85% of enterprise cash flow is expected to remain for up to 3 months, nearly 70% of enterprises can only be maintained for less than two months, and 34% of enterprises can maintain up to 1 month; according to the information of Tianyancha: China currently has 800,000 accommodation enterprises, 10 million catering enterprises, 260,000 travel agencies and related companies, and more than 85% of these enterprises are small and medium-sized enterprises such as individual industrial and commercial households;
Small and medium-sized enterprises, including small and micro enterprises, are responsible for 90% of Employment in China. Small and medium-sized enterprises are dead, a wave of large-scale losses is bound to occur, and if the most terrible "displaced society" in China's history recurs, China's social stability will lose its premise, and the crisis of the cycle of chaos will once again threaten us.
Therefore, at present, what "old infrastructure" and "new infrastructure" can actually be leisurely, and the dream of a big country and a strong country with a neck outstretched can also be temporarily put aside, but it is imperative to ensure the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises and low- and middle-income people. As Premier Keqiang said: As long as small and medium-sized enterprises have breath, they must find ways to save their lives.
3
The key to disaster relief: let small and medium-sized enterprises survive, let small people survive
So how to protect small and medium-sized enterprises and low- and middle-income people? In fact, the reason is rough and simple: send money.
As long as small and medium-sized enterprises in Canada do not close their doors and do not lay off employees, 75% of the wages are paid by the government; 80% in the United Kingdom; the United States is also at all costs; at the same time, countries also pay their citizens according to their different incomes. This is called the right choice without a choice, and this is called stability overriding.
As for rent reductions, interest reductions and tax reductions, all of these available tactics should be fought out as vigorously as the implementation of "4 trillion" in those years, or even more fiercely.
Because today's situation is much more dangerous than in 2008! If small and medium-sized enterprises are not guaranteed, economic and social stability is not guaranteed, then no amount of infrastructure construction can withstand the tide of unemployment and disappointed people's hearts!
Weak small and medium-sized private enterprises and weak underprivileged people must be guaranteed by the government in the context of economic recession, otherwise it is not ruled out that there will be a large-scale collapse, and if it appears, it will be "Lehman Brothers" with Chinese characteristics. At the same time, people's confidence in the future in turbulent times is insufficient, effective demand will be greatly compressed, the government will not issue money, do not give strong and powerful support policies, do not make a special period of social security, China's consumption will inevitably plummet, enterprises will also fall due to insufficient market demand, or stagnate...
At present, in addition to the introduction of various "anti-recession" growth policies, the central government and various localities have also introduced a lot of policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises, but as far as I know, they are given preferential treatment according to whether the enterprise has formal qualifications, etc., which is too rigid and bureaucratic; in fact, many small and micro enterprises, self-employed households, etc. do not necessarily have any qualifications and qualifications, and have been surviving in the wind and rain, so the most important one at present is actually to give preferential treatment in accordance with the principle of employment, as long as it can prove the contribution of enterprises in employment and promise not to close the door and not lay off employees The state will do its utmost to help.
In addition, for the bottom group, the state and local governments should immediately implement special assistance for unemployment and poverty alleviation. For a city like Wuhan, which has made significant contributions to the country, it should also consider implementing major subsidies and preferential policies to help it restore its original atmosphere.
The people are the foundation of the state. The help oriented to people's livelihood and private enterprises will comfort people's hearts and revitalize consumption, which can be described as the foundation of a solid state. Let the enterprises survive, let the small people live, let the Chinese nation and the whole country survive in this global economic recession, first consider this well, do it, and then talk about others!
Source: Chinese and foreign management