The rapid development of information and communication technology has led to a significant change in the form of work, and remote work is gradually becoming an important form of work. The COVID-19 pandemic that broke out in 2020 and continues to circulate to this day and the corresponding series of prevention and control policies have accelerated the popularization and development of remote work forms. Based on the data of the 2020 Practitioner Follow-up Survey, this study analyzes the buffering effect of remote work on the impact of employment and its heterogeneity among groups by constructing the Teleworkability Index of Chinese practitioners, and judges its development trend.
The study found that the level of remote work possibility varies greatly between the labor force with different demographic characteristics of different occupations; in the employment recovery in the later stage of the epidemic, there is a clear differentiation effect among the groups with different work remote possibilities, that is, the practitioners with high work remote possibility have been relatively small in the economic impact during the epidemic and the mental health level has recovered better; at the same time, from 2019 to 2020, the possibility of working remote has continued to increase. With the continuation and recurrence of the global epidemic and the improvement of existing technical means in the short term, the level of remote possibilities for future work is expected to accelerate.
Work remote likelihood index calculation
This study used detailed "job type" information from more than 6,000 practitioners in the "2020 Epidemic, Return to Work and Mental Health" tracking survey to match the work remote feasibility index constructed by Diggel and Neiman (2020) based on U.S. labor data and classified by the U.S. Standard Occupational Classification, so as to obtain a work remote likelihood index corresponding to the work characteristics of each individual practitioner.
The data show that the work remote possibility index of China's labor force shows obvious polarization characteristics, that is, the labor force with a very low and extremely high work distance possibility index is relatively concentrated, while the share of the middle distribution is relatively small, and there are large differences in different characteristic groups.
By occupation, commercial workers are most likely to work remotely, significantly higher than agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery workers and production and transportation workers. In terms of different industries, in industries such as education and information technology, the proportion of high-working remote possibility practitioners is more than 90%, which is the highest among all industries; on the contrary, primary industry, construction and manufacturing practitioners are highly dependent on the production environment and manpower input, which is the industry with the lowest remoteness of work; accommodation and catering industries need face-to-face contact services, and the possibility of working remote is relatively low. By individual and socio-economic characteristics, women have a better advantage than men in working remotely; the remoteness of local urban workers is higher than that of rural migrant workers; the remote work index of highly educated people (college degree and above) is much higher than that of lowly educated people; and the work distance index is positively correlated with income level.
The Remote Work Possibility Index and Labor Market Shocks
Using the data from the phase IV individual panel constructed from three follow-up surveys in late 2019 and 2020, this study quantitatively analyzed the buffering effect of remote work on employment shocks and the heterogeneity characteristics between groups. Studies have shown that people with high remote work possibilities are more likely to return to work as soon as possible; people with low remote work possibilities are more likely to suffer more serious shocks, while the recovery process is relatively slower; the gap between the two was 5 percentage points during the epidemic, and the gap is no longer obvious at the end of 2020 with the full recovery of China's economy.
The prevention and control policy of closed isolation has significantly reduced the possibility of practitioners returning to work and employment. In the case of general damage to employment caused by prevention and control policies, practitioners with high potential for remote work are more flexible to adjust and resume their work status, reduce the impact on employment, and maintain a relatively high work intensity.
In terms of wages, the possibility of remote work for practitioners affects the monthly labor income of practitioners by affecting their progress in returning to work, the intensity of work, and the degree of recovery. As of the end of last year, the workforce with a high distance work index still had a clear advantage in terms of wage income.
Mental health level is also an important indicator of the overall welfare level of practitioners. The study found that the mental health of groups with a high probability of remote work has been at a high level, indicating that it also has welfare advantages at the psychological level.
Future trend judgment: The possibility of remote work will continue to increase
Based on the changes in the types of jobs of 615 respondents from 2019 to the end of 2020, this paper further explores the work shift of China's labor force. The analysis found that in order to adapt to new changes in the labor market and reduce the risk of unemployment, changes in job types tended to favor types of jobs with a high index of remoteness. Specifically, 16% of practitioners experienced a change from low remote work possibility to high remote work possibility in 2020, resulting in an overall increase in the overall level of remote work possibility. With the continuation and recurrence of the global pandemic and the strengthening of existing technological means in the short term, the level of possibility of remote work in the future is likely to accelerate.
In conclusion, this study explores for the first time the relationship between the possibility of remote work in China's labor market and economic shocks, emphasizing that remote work is a "buffer" to cope with labor shocks, and a long-term trend in the transformation of work styles in the post-epidemic period.
In addition, this study illustrates the impact of the "digital divide" on the economic inequality of the working population by analyzing the differences in the effects of remote work possibilities under the impact of the epidemic. Practitioners who are more likely to work remotely, often with higher income levels, are also more likely to recover from adverse shocks, demonstrating differentiation in the process of economic recovery.
This study suggests that in the current normalization of epidemic prevention and control, on the one hand, policymakers should formulate policies to promote digital transformation in various industries, help practitioners improve their digital skills, cross the "digital divide", encourage more forms of labor, and stimulate the vitality of the labor market; on the other hand, special attention should also be paid to workers engaged in basic production work and low-end service industries, due to the low possibility of remote work, they have suffered a more serious employment impact, after the normalization of epidemic prevention and control. Their welfare levels have not yet fully recovered. Therefore, as soon as possible, we will introduce support policies for these practitioners to ensure their basic livelihood and reduce social inequality. This is of great significance for economic recovery and social stability in the post-COVID-19 era.
Zhang Dandan is a young scholar of liberal arts at Peking University, an associate professor of economics at the Peking University Development Institute (long-term appointment), and a Young Scholar of The Ministry of Education. Dandan Zhang's research interests include labor economics, applied econometrics and experimental economics.