Heavy! The establishment of a working group by multiple ministries and commissions is related to destocking, price increase or price decline?

Lao Yang chatted about the room

2024-05-16 23:38Posted in Jiangxi Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, vice president of the real estate field creators

Blockbuster: Multiple ministries and commissions set up a joint working group to brew and launch a "major initiative" in real estate!

On April 17, an important meeting was held to announce the blockbuster rescue content, mainly around the delivery of buildings and destocking!

This year's property market is significantly weaker than last year, and the lack of quality has seriously dragged down the economy.

In the context of a new round of trade war launched by the United States, if we want to stabilize the economy, we must stimulate domestic demand;

If we want to activate domestic demand, we must first save real estate;

If you want to save real estate, the key is to destock!

After eight years, the re-mention of real estate destocking is the tone of the top meeting on April 30, and it is also an important signal that the real estate market will usher in an important turnaround!

The area of existing commercial houses for sale in the country exceeded the high point in early 2016 from January to February this year, hitting a record high!

Among them, the area of commercial residential buildings for sale has not reached a new high, indicating that the current backlog of commercial and office properties exceeds that of the beginning of 2016; If we don't vigorously destock, housing will hit a new high next year.

Therefore, from the top to the locality, we have to pay close attention to the urgent and realistic problem of inventory pressure in the near future!

In the past half month, the Ministry of Natural Resources and many places have introduced new real estate policies, which are significantly stronger than in the previous two years.

The real estate stocks, which are the most sensitive to policy, have risen and risen recently, and they have been rising non-stop, significantly stronger than the broader market.

Bloomberg, which has always been well-informed, had news two days earlier.

Recently, local governments have successively introduced specific policies to destock.

For example, Lin'an, Hangzhou, proposed not to build new affordable rental housing, but to use it as affordable housing through the acquisition of existing commodities.

Another example, Dali, Yunnan Province, also proposed to purchase stock housing for affordable rental housing and talent housing; For demolition, in principle, no resettlement houses will be built, and priority will be given to purchasing stock houses for resettlement housing!

In addition to the above measures, there are many other ways to destock: the housing ticket system in demolition and resettlement, the trade-in policy, the suspension of land supply in cities with a long destocking cycle, the acquisition of stock housing for affordable housing (placement), the reduction of the scale of new construction of affordable housing (placement) or even the suspension of construction.

Of course, the most important path is to stimulate the demand for buying houses, and only when everyone is willing to buy a house can we fundamentally achieve destocking!

This brings up another topic, how to motivate home buyers to make a move?

There are actually two different views on the relationship between destocking and the rise and fall of housing prices.

One point of view is that house prices will fall sharply, and real estate companies should hurry up and promote them sharply, and house prices will fall by another 20%, or even 50%, and buyers will buy your house.

Another point of view is that real estate destocking must be premised on the rise of housing prices, and if housing prices continue to fall, it is very difficult to destock.

So, what do you think about this at the national level?

We can recall the policy wording of the last real estate destocking.

In July 2014, at a symposium held by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the minister proposed that all localities can introduce relevant policies to stabilize the real estate market according to local conditions, and places with large inventories should do everything possible to digest the area of commercial housing for sale.

In December 2015, at the National Economic Work Conference, it was proposed for the first time to resolve the real estate inventory. Among them, there are many means to destock, including: to encourage real estate development enterprises to comply with market rules, adjust marketing strategies, and appropriately reduce the price of commercial housing!

This is the idea of reducing the price to destock.

So, how did the market perform later?

Let's have the picture above, there is a picture and the truth.

This is the trend of new home inventory (mainly off-plan) in 50 key cities across the country that we monitor.

It can be seen that the inventory rose rapidly in 2014; At this time, the property market cooled down and house prices fell.

Inventories were at a high level in 2015, began to decline slightly in 2016, and fell sharply in 2017.

The turning point of housing prices in 50 cities from falling to rising was in June 2015.

As house prices turned up, and the increase was getting bigger, the inventory depleted faster and faster, until the inventory bottomed out in 2017 and 2018.

Therefore, it can also be said that the market movement proves that destocking requires a price increase, not a price reduction.

The real trend of the market is different from the market law we imagined!

How can this divergence be explained?

In fact, Lao Yang thinks that this is not a deviation, it is normal!

In the commodity economy, prices are generally divided into two categories. One is the price of consumer goods, and the other is the price of capital products.

The more the price of consumer goods is reduced, the more conducive it is to promote sales and destocking. In daily life, we sometimes see aunts and uncles going to the shopping mall to queue up and buy some specials, which is a phenomenon caused by the sharp price reduction of consumer goods.

The price of the asset product is characterized by buying up but not buying down. The more the price rises, the more many investors follow the trend to invest, whether it is the property market or the stock market; The more it falls, the more no one buys it.

And the house price belongs to the asset price!

You can observe, in the past two years or so, the real estate market has cooled down, housing prices have fallen, have you seen a lot of sales offices are hot?

Individual sales offices are hot, similar to Shanghai and Hangzhou, which is also because there is a price difference after the price limit, which leads to the appearance of red plates.

Real estate with a market-oriented price rarely sees many people grabbing a house.

Therefore, the final conclusion is very clear, if we want to de-inventory real estate and truly release the demand for housing purchases, the sustained growth mainly depends on the rise in housing prices.

Especially after the house price turns from falling to rising, the real demand for housing can appear in large quantities, and it can really effectively destock!

Lao Yang chats about the house and likes to be reasonable and set up facts.

I don't know what you think about the topic of this issue, if you agree, please raise your little crisp hand, like and forward this article.

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