#"Second Thomas Reef" Incident##外交部回应马科斯指责杜特尔特与中国签下"Gentlemen's Agreement"##南海局势迎来突变#
Some time ago, due to the Philippines' continuous provocation in the South China Sea, China broke the news of the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines. It is hoped that this will induce the Philippines to abide by its commitments and stop its provocations in the South China Sea. However, the Philippines has played a scoundrel, repeatedly denying the existence of the agreement, and even saying that even if there is, it is a matter of "the former dynasty" and has nothing to do with the "current dynasty". Philippine National Security Adviser Arnold claimed that any agreement reached between the Duterte administration and China does not count, and if it does, it has been annulled. The incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. also "pretended to be stupid" and instead asked the Chinese side to clarify the matter.
On the 27th of this month, the Philippine defense secretary once again spoke out, calling China's mention of the gentlemen's agreement between the two countries false propaganda, and even slandering it as another crude attempt to promote lies.
Even if the agreement between China and the Philippines is unwritten, the Philippines should respect it at the most basic level. What the Philippines is doing now illustrates the following facts.
First, the Philippine government has gone back on its word, lacks credibility, and its words do not count. It is precisely for this reason that the commitments made by the Philippines in the future are not trustworthy. When dealing with the Philippines, China needs to "keep a hand".
Second, the Philippines is obstinately pursuing its own course in the South China Sea. With the support of the United States and Japan, the Philippines' provocative actions in the South China Sea will continue. Harassment activities on reefs such as Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal are likely to increase. China's mere verbal dissuasion and warnings are ineffective, and tougher concrete actions must be taken.
Third, the Philippines has different attitudes toward China. To put it simply, it is the "anti-China faction" led by Marcos Jr. and following the United States and Japan. There are also more pro-China pragmatic politicians represented by former President Rodrigo Duterte and the governor of Cagayan Province. China can use this as an article to put more political pressure on the Marcos Jr. government. At the same time, it is also necessary to take into account pro-China politicians, so that these people can exert greater influence in the Philippines and even return to power to stabilize Sino-Philippine relations.
In fact, the Philippines' actions in the South China Sea have continued recently, and on the political front, the Philippines has announced that it will carry out hydrographic surveys east of Thitu Island, during which it will block the sea area and not allow ships from other countries to enter. In addition, the Philippines also announced an investigation into some Chinese citizens who entered the Philippines on suspicion of espionage.
The military actions have been more eye-catching, starting with the "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise between the United States and the Philippines, which has once again expanded in scale. And the United States has also deployed the new "Typhon" medium-range missile launch system to the Philippines, which can use the range of Tomahawk missiles to the west to hit targets in depth in Chinese mainland, and to the north can also use supersonic Standard 6 missiles to block the entry and exit of Chinese Navy ships in and out of the Bass Strait. Of course, China has also countered by amassing hundreds of fishing boats, as well as coast guard and warships in the South China Sea. Scarborough Shoal and Ren'ai Jiao are the key targets of China's vessel patrol control. In addition, the Chinese side also issued an announcement saying that the military training held from the 28th to the 30th is obviously aimed at the military exercises of the United States and the Philippines.
The Chinese side has been slow to take action, and at present, the main reason is that it is afraid of the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines. But now that the Philippines has taken the lead in tearing up the agreement, there is no need for China to hold back. Since the Philippines does not heed the advice and insists on going its own way, it is necessary for China to take more concrete actions in order to protect its own rights and interests. This includes towing away Philippine vessels stranded on Second Thomas Shoal, or reclaiming land at Scarborough Shoal to directly strengthen military deterrence against the Philippines. In addition, since the Philippines' largest export market is China, China could even impose economic sanctions on it. There are many means available to deal with the Chinese side in the Philippines, and the grounded and wrecked ship at Ren'ai Jiao may be about to come to an end.
