Abstract: As a new type of energy storage, heat storage technology has ushered in a golden period of rapid development in recent years with the continuous support and encouragement of the government. The data shows that in 2023, the cumulative installed power of cold and heat storage in China will be about 930.7 MW, a year-on-year increase of 69.6%, accounting for 1.1% of the total installed energy storage capacity. In the future, with the continuous optimization of the energy structure and the continuous promotion of the "dual carbon" strategic goal, heat storage technology will play a more important role in the energy field and make positive contributions to China's green and sustainable development.
Key words: heat storage technology, new energy installation, cold and heat storage installation, heat storage development trend
1. Overview of the heat storage industry
The heat storage industry refers to an emerging industry that uses special materials and processes to collect and store renewable energy such as solar energy and wind energy for continuous energy supply when needed. It is an important support for the development of the power system, which can solve the problems of high volatility of renewable energy and the imbalance between supply and demand, and improve the reliability and stability of the power system. In the process of new urbanization and industrialization, the heat storage industry also plays an important role in providing reliable guarantee for urban electricity consumption and promoting sustainable development.
Heat storage technologies are varied, with storage times ranging from a few hours to several months. Different material properties are used in thermal energy storage applications, which are divided into sensible heat storage, latent heat storage (phase change heat storage) and thermochemical reaction heat storage according to the thermal mechanism. In addition to the above three types of heat storage technologies, there are also some specific heat storage technologies such as water heat storage technology, high-temperature solid electric heat storage technology and phase change valley electric heat storage technology, which have a wide range of applications in clean heating and other fields.
From the perspective of the three major heat storage technologies, the sensible heat storage cost is low, the technology maturity is the highest, and the improvement of the heat storage and release cycle efficiency is the main breakthrough direction at present; the energy storage density of latent heat storage is high, and the temperature of the heat storage/heat release process is almost constant, and large-scale application attempts have begun, and the problems of phase separation and supercooling still need to be solved; thermochemical heat storage and energy storage density is the highest, which is expected to realize long-term storage of heat energy, but it is still in the basic research stage due to the complexity of the system and many auxiliary equipment.
2. Analysis of the development environment of heat storage
As the cornerstone and power engine supporting the development of the national economy, energy and power have continued to increase their installed capacity with the take-off of the mainland economy. Especially under the strategic guidance of the "dual carbon" goal, the installed capacity of new energy has achieved rapid growth. According to the latest data from the National Energy Administration, as of the end of February 2024, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity has reached about 2.97 billion kilowatts, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.7%. Among them, thermal power capacity still dominates, accounting for about 47%, while solar power capacity has shown a rapid growth trend, climbing to about 650 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 56.9%, followed by wind power capacity, reaching about 450 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%.
However, with the rapid expansion of new energy installations, the demand for adjustable resources in new power grids is becoming more and more urgent. Pumped hydro storage and electrochemical energy storage are two high-profile solutions that are currently facing certain challenges, despite their great potential. Pumped hydro has a long construction period and many restrictions on site selection, while the commercialization of electrochemical energy storage technology is relatively slow. Therefore, in the short term, it is difficult for these two technologies to fully meet the rapidly growing demand for peak regulation and frequency regulation of the power grid. In this context, heat storage technology is gradually emerging with its unique advantages. It can not only quickly respond to the regulation needs of the power grid, but also has the characteristics of relatively low cost and short construction period. Therefore, it is of great significance to increase the R&D and popularization and application of heat storage technology to alleviate the current pressure of power grid regulation and promote the consumption of new energy.
3. The operation status of the global heat storage industry
With the widespread application of renewable energy and the increasing maturity of the power market, energy storage technology is playing an increasingly important role in the energy transition and is showing a vigorous development trend. By the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of global energy storage was 294.1GW, a year-on-year increase of 23.99%. Among them, cold and heat storage technology occupies 1.6% of the market share, with a cumulative installed capacity of 4.6GW. In terms of geographical distribution, China, North America, and Europe are the major players in the global energy storage market. According to CNESA data, in 2022, the total scale of new energy storage projects put into operation in these three regions accounted for 86% of the global market.
Under the global carbon neutrality goal, clean energy will gradually replace fossil energy, and wind power and photovoltaic power generation will become the absolute main force of clean energy. In the new power system, energy storage will become a vital part, is a necessary guarantee for new energy consumption and grid security, and will be widely used on the power generation side, the grid side, and the power consumption side, and the demand space is very huge. According to the forecast of the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, the global new energy penetration rate is expected to reach 57% in 2025, and the market demand for energy storage capacity will reach 4.1TW, which will provide a broad development space for the heat storage industry.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, the global heat storage market will triple by 2030, showing the huge potential of heat storage technology in the future energy system. In addition, the International Council on Long-Term Energy Storage (LDES) also predicts that thermal storage technology has the potential to expand the overall installed capacity potential of long-term energy storage to 2-8TW by 2040, compared to 1-3TW without thermal storage technology. This will result in cumulative investments of up to $1.6-2.5 trillion and up to $540 billion in annual cost savings for the power system. To sum up, the global energy storage market is ushering in a golden period of rapid development.
Note: This article is excerpted from the industry analysis article "Development Status of Global and Chinese Heat Storage Industry in 2024: The Growth of New Energy Installed Capacity Gives Rise to Energy Storage Demand Blowout, and Heat Storage Technology Ushers in a Golden Development Period [Figure]" released by Zhiyan Consulting.
The "2024 China Heat Storage Industry Technology Development Trend and Market Space Forecast Report" released by Zhiyan Consulting is based on the authoritative data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, government agencies, and industry associations, combined with the collection and analysis of in-depth research data, expert feedback data, internal operation data and other global data to improve the efficiency of customers' business decision-making. This report makes an in-depth investigation and research on the current situation and market of China's heat storage industry, and makes a prudent judgment on the future development prospects and trends according to the development trajectory of the industry, which provides a crucial decision-making reference for investors to find new market investment opportunities and enter the investment layout of the heat storage industry.
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