Under the changing times, rebuilding confidence is the "first topic" in the liquor industry.
Text | Selling Wine Wolf Team
Ed southerly
"The output of liquor has been declining one after another, the overall dynamic sales of the terminal have slowed down, and the consumer confidence in the industry is insufficient. This is the undeniable status quo, and although it is "not good", it must be admitted. Because only by acknowledging the existence of shortcomings, problems, difficulties and challenges can we truly find a realistic way to break the situation and reinvigorate the confidence of the industry......
1
Face up to the problem: the demand for liquor market is weak
In 2023, the total wholesale price index of liquor in China will fluctuate between 99.80~100.27, maintaining an upward trend for 8 months throughout the year, and showing a downward trend in March and July~September, which is not as good as the previous 3 years.
In this regard, the view of industry insiders is that the expected revenge consumption has not occurred, and the expected rational consumption is more serious.
Under the pressure of the "two mountains" of turbulent international situation and slowing domestic economic growth, it is impossible for liquor to withstand such huge pressure. Like other non-essential products in people's lives, liquor has become a "dispensable" existence in the eyes of many consumers, that is, there is a kind of life interest, and there is no harm if there is none.
While the market demand for liquor is weak, production is also a "fatal" problem. In recent years, the output has been declining again and again, but it is impossible to break the status quo of "oversupply".
In this context, it is more difficult for the industry to stabilize and raise prices, and the industry tends to exchange price for volume, and the liquor price system is facing the risk of imbalance.
In 2024, all of the above has not improved significantly, and even the scenario of 2023 has reappeared. From the jubilant atmosphere of the Spring Festival market to the desertion of the off-season market, baijiu has failed to make waves in any market, and even Moutai has suffered a series of price reductions.
In the view of industry veterans, as the industry enters a period of adjustment, under the trend of "strong supply and weak demand", in 2024, the price of liquor should not be blindly optimistic, and destocking and stabilizing prices are still the main theme of the industry.
In 2024, it is expected that the price of famous liquor will rise and the price will rise, while the trend of local liquor will be uncertain, and the demand for base liquor will decrease, and the price may be under pressure.
2
Firm confidence: The liquor industry has been improving for a long time
▲Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Liquor Industry Association
"Despite the difficulties, we still need to strengthen our confidence, and our confidence comes from the industry itself. At the summit, Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Liquor Industry Association, said. However, in the face of such a big change, where should confidence come from? In this regard, an industry expert gave his own opinion, culture, innovation, and head are the sources of confidence.
The first is to have confidence in the "wine culture". As we all know, wine culture has a long history in China, and wine culture has penetrated into all fields of human social life, and has a huge impact and role in human life, literature and art, industrial and agricultural production, political and economic aspects.
The second is to have confidence in "wine enterprise innovation". In recent years, the alternation of new and old consumers in the market, the mutual exchange between sellers and buyers, and the birth of new consumption trends have all had an impact on the liquor industry, but the liquor industry is not unprepared and has no counterattack.
The third is to have confidence in the "head famous wine". According to the data released by the China Liquor Industry Association, in 2023, the liquor industry will achieve a total output of 6.29 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, a sales revenue of 756.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, and a profit of 232.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%.
It is not difficult to see that the market is further concentrating on advantageous production areas and advantageous enterprises, and the head famous liquor enterprises represented by "Mao Wuyang Fenlu" are climbing all the way in twists and turns. In the future, "they" will hand over a better report card in the era when quality is king and brand is king.
▲Zeng Congqin, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Wuliangye Group (Co., Ltd.).
According to Zeng Congqin, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Wuliangye Group (Co., Ltd.), looking at Chinese liquor from the historical timeline, adjustment is a phased form, and growth is a long-term trend.
Zeng Congqin believes that "advantageous production areas, advantageous enterprises, and advantageous brands are the greatest confidence and guarantee for the industry to cope with the uncertainty of development." The more long-cycle the industry, the more we must adhere to long-term value, which is the key to breaking the situation and solving the problem through the industry cycle and ironing out short-term fluctuations. ”
3
Problem solving: Suggestions from the head of the famous wine
▲Chairman of Kweichow Moutai Ding Xiongjun
At the summit, Ding Xiongjun, chairman of Kweichow Moutai, talked about the "aesthetic practice" of doing a good job in the "beauty era" wine article from the three dimensions of "people", "space" and "time", and made it clear that wine companies should "lead the new identity of wine culture, create a new experience of wine consumption, and lead the new trend of wine tasting". ”
▲Zhang Liandong, chairman of Jiangsu Yanghe
Zhang Liandong, chairman of Jiangsu Yanghe, said that Chinese liquor should inherit the way of Chinese liquor, show the responsibility of Chinese liquor, play the strong voice of Chinese liquor, and work together with one heart and in the same direction, such as the confluence of the three rivers to gather majestic synergy, such as the mighty Yangtze River gathering development momentum, and opening a new journey of higher, faster, stronger and more brilliant development of liquor.
▲Shanxi Fenjiu Chairman Yuan Qingmao
Yuan Qingmao, chairman of Shanxi Fenjiu, pointed out that every enterprise actually has very rich cultural resources, and activates the rich cultural resources into the expression of the times, emotional expression and value expression that consumers like to see. The positioning remains the same, and the form changes, so that the brand will always be alive and active in the minds of consumers.
▲ Liu Miao, chairman of Luzhou Laojiao
Liu Miao, chairman of Luzhou Laojiao, pointed out that quality is the cornerstone of the survival of liquor enterprises, the theme of eternal exploration, and the foundation of everlasting foundation. No matter how the external environment changes, our original intention of brewing spiritual and material beauty for consumers with high quality remains unchanged.
This time, the successful holding of the 13th China Liquor T9 Summit with the theme of "Building Confidence, Consolidating the Source and Improving Value" has truly clarified the trend and method, and pointed out the future direction for the development of China's liquor industry.
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