In 2024, the monetary policy will be more loose, and the probability of the property market stabilizing will increase greatly!

Sure enough, the interest rate was cut today, and the force exceeded expectations!

The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) on February 20 was 3.45% for 1-year LPR and 3.95% for LPR over 5 years.

The one-year term remains unchanged, but the five-year term drops by 0.25 percentage points! The asymmetric interest rate cut again is mainly good for real estate, because the loans with a term of more than five years are mainly personal housing loans, which also proves that the state's attitude towards real estate support has further improved.

This is the largest since the implementation of the LPR system in 2019. There have been many interest rate cuts before, generally 0.15 percentage points each time, and the lowest was only 0.05 percentage points.

Of course, one thing should also be considered: in August 2023, the 1-year LPR was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, while the LPR of more than 5 years was unchanged. Therefore, the magnitude of this rate cut also contains a "make-up" factor for the last asymmetric rate cut.

Historically, the 5-year loan rate cut was 0.25 percentage points, similar to the 2014-2015 round of rate cuts, when there were six rate cuts, including 0.4 percentage points in October 2014 and 0.25 percentage points in the other five.

At that time, the macroeconomic and real estate markets were similar to the current ones, and they were relatively sluggish. At that time, the United States was also facing the external environment of monetary tightening with the withdrawal of QE and the imminent interest rate hike, and the mainland monetary authorities bucked the trend and continuously cut interest rates and reserve requirements.

Before the Spring Festival this year, the RRR was cut first, and after the Spring Festival, the interest rate was cut aggressively, indicating that the macroeconomic policy in 2024 will be more accommodative than in the past two years.

From the perspective of the degree of monetary release, taking the difference between M2 growth rate and nominal GDP as a reference index, the degree of water release since the second quarter of 2022 has been greater than that of 2014-2015, but the cumulative time of continuous water release is not enough, and it is expected that the effect will be significantly stronger after one year than at present!

In this context, the internal momentum of the economy and the property market will inevitably be further strengthened. It's still dark and dark, but the dawn will come!

It is expected that the national property market in 2024 will be stronger than in 2023, but the real improvement should be expected in 2025-2026.