Entering mid-December, the economic data of the first 11 months of many industries and fields have been released one after another. In particular, the authoritative data of the National Bureau of Statistics show that the mainland's macroeconomic regulation and control policies continued to be effective, and in November, production and supply rose steadily, and the economic recovery continued to consolidate. On the other hand, the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference demanded: Next year, we must persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break down. Then, against the backdrop of the sustained upward trend in economic data in November this year, how should we look forward to the eventual realization of the economic target for the whole year? How should we implement the general requirement of "seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking through" next year?
The latest economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that at present, the indicators of industry, services, consumption, and exports are all continuing to improve. The relevant person in charge of the National Bureau of Statistics said that the main production demand indicators showed a steady and rising trend in November, and the innovation momentum continued to grow, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual development goals. According to November's data on the import and export of goods, the trade structure of the mainland's foreign trade has continued to be optimized in terms of trade methods, trade entities and trading partners. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, in recent months, China's trade in goods has shown a steady upward momentum, with the growth rate of imports and exports in RMB terms rebounding for four consecutive months, and achieving positive growth in October and November. On the whole, the positive factors of foreign trade development continue to accumulate, and the trend of stabilization continues to consolidate.
How to see the annual development goals through the November data?
So, how to look at the annual development goals through the November data? Listen to Wu Sa, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics.
Various economic data for November show that the mainland's national economy as a whole has continued to pick up and improve, laying a very solid foundation for achieving the annual development target.
First, the three industries have achieved all-round growth, and the basis of economic growth is the growth of the three industries. From the perspective of primary production, this year, when the local areas were severely affected, the large-scale yield increase effectively hedged the impact of the disaster, and realized the harvest to make up for the loss and the autumn to make up for the summer. Grain output hit a new high, stabilizing at more than 1.3 trillion catties for nine consecutive years. From the perspective of secondary production, the growth rate of most industrial industries has rebounded, and from the growth side, the growth rate of more than sixty percent of the industries and nearly half of the products has rebounded from the previous month. From the perspective of the tertiary industry, the contact-oriented service industry maintained a recovery, the modern service industry grew steadily, and the service industry maintained a relatively rapid growth.
Second, domestic demand continues to recover. Domestic demand, including consumption and investment, plays a very big role in promoting economic development. From the perspective of consumption, the sales of travel goods improved, and the potential of service consumption continued to be released. In terms of investment, investment in the manufacturing industry has risen steadily, investment in high-tech industries has grown rapidly, and the scale of investment in fixed assets has continued to expand.
Third, employment prices are generally stable. Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood, the barometer of economic development, and the ballast stone of social stability. The employment situation was generally stable in November, with the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide at 5%, the same as the previous month, and generally falling back this year. From the perspective of key employment groups, the employment of migrant workers has improved. Since the beginning of this year, domestic prices have generally shown a first-place trend, and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.6% year-on-year in November, the same increase as the previous month, and remained stable. As demand for goods and services continues to recover and market liquidity is generally reasonable and abundant, the situation of low prices will gradually ease.
Fourth, foreign trade has improved. The total import and export volume of goods in November was 3,700.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, export growth ended the downward trend for six consecutive months, and the trade mode, trade subject, trading partner and trade structure have also maintained continuous optimization. On the whole, the national economy handed over a gratifying report card in November, indicating that the mainland's annual development target is expected to be well achieved.
Multi-departmental data release is intensive, and the overall economic operation is improving
In addition to the authoritative data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Commerce, many departments have also released relevant data in the first 11 months of this year in the industry and field in the past two days. According to the intensively released data, relying on the strong industrial chain, supply chain production advantages and super-large-scale market advantages, and with the support of unswervingly expanding high-level opening-up and other policies, a number of economic operations continue to maintain overall improvement.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first 11 months of this year, the number of shipbuilding completions, new orders, and hand-held orders reached 38.09 million deadweight tons, 64.85 million deadweight tons, and 134.09 million deadweight tons, respectively, an increase of 12.3%, 63.8%, and 29.4% year-on-year, while maintaining rapid growth, the international market share of the three major indicators exceeded 50%.
According to data from the same Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the total output of lithium batteries in the country from September to October this year exceeded 185 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 17%, of which the output of energy storage lithium batteries exceeded 38 GWh, and the installed capacity of power lithium batteries for new energy vehicles was about 76 GWh. In the first ten months of this year, the country's total lithium battery production exceeded 765 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31%. Lithium battery exports also continued to grow, during the September and October periods this year, the total export value of lithium batteries reached 82.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%.
As a barometer of the vitality of economic and social development, the data in the field of transportation has also seen a significant increase. According to the latest data from China Railway Group, from January to November this year, the national railway sent a total of 3.56 billion passengers, a year-on-year increase of 126%. Passenger traffic indicators such as the number of passengers sent and the number of tickets sold in a single day have reached a record high.
In terms of civil aviation, data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China showed that in November, the civil aviation industry completed 719,000 tons of cargo and mail transportation, a record high. Among them, in terms of domestic routes, driven by the economic recovery, the volume of cargo and mail increased by 7.4% month-on-month, and the average freight rate of domestic routes was 1.67 yuan/kg, up 0.6% month-on-month. In terms of strong demand for international routes, the volume of cargo and mail increased by 5.4% month-on-month, and the average freight rate of international routes was 17.16 yuan/kg, up 16.6% month-on-month. As of the end of November this year, the civil aviation industry has completed a total of 6.61 million tons of cargo and mail transportation. Among them, 4.11 million tons of cargo and mail transportation were completed on domestic routes and 2.5 million tons on international routes.
According to data released by the Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport, in November, China's transportation production index was 178.8 points, a year-on-year increase of 32.6%. Among them, the freight index was 211.2 points, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points faster than that in October. Freight volumes such as steel, grain, and coal have increased.
What should economic work be done in 2024?
The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out: Next year, we must persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break down. If the current data is regarded as "progress" or "establishment", what should be done in 2024?
Wu Sa, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economic Research, China Academy of Macroeconomics: In November, the macroeconomic control policies continued to take effect, production and supply rose steadily, market demand continued to improve, employment prices were generally stable, people's livelihood protection was strong and effective, and transformation and upgrading were solidly promoted, and the main expected goals of economic and social development in 2023 are expected to be successfully achieved. In the context of the increasing number of unfavorable factors in the international political and economic environment and the superposition of cyclical and structural contradictions in China, this report card is hard-won, and it has weight, quality, and gold content. The mainland's annual development target is expected to be well achieved, and the economic recovery trend is standing.
There is inertia in economic operation, and as long as the momentum of rebounding and improving is stabilized, there will be a solid foundation for further economic "progress" and "establishment" in the future. The just-held Central Economic Work Conference systematically deployed the economic work in 2024, assigned nine specific tasks, and proposed to take high-quality development as the last word in the new era and put it at the top of the five "musts". Compared with the past, development is the last word, which adds to the emphasis on quality. At the same time, in the methodology of economic work, on the basis of the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability in the past, it has been added to promote stability through progress and establish first and then break down; on the one hand, there are demands for stable growth, especially to put stable expectations in the first place of stable expectations, steady growth, and stable employment.
On the other hand, it emphasizes the "progress" of changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving the quality and increasing the efficiency, so as to add impetus to the realization of the three stability. The underlying logic of establishing first and then breaking down is to attach importance to risks, which means that more attention is paid to risk prevention, and the priority of "standing" new momentum, new mechanisms and new models should be significantly improved, and the mainland's economy will be resilient, have great potential and vitality, and its economic growth will be in the forefront of the world's major economies and will remain the largest engine of global economic growth.
Editor: Wu Jiahong
Source: CCTV news client