Weekly analysis of | vehicle market scan released by the association (April 24-April 30, 2022)

1. Overview of the car market this week

From April 24 to 30, retail sales of passenger cars were 442,000 units, down 28% year-on-year, up 116% from the previous week and down 13% from the same period last month; and wholesale passenger cars were 372,000 units, down 39% year-on-year, up 143% from the previous week and down 34% from the same period last month.

According to preliminary statistics, the national passenger car market retailed 1.052 million units in April, down 35% year-on-year and 33% from the previous month; in April, the national passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 903,000 units, down 46% year-on-year and 50% from the previous month.

Weekly retail trends in the passenger car market in April

The overall narrow passenger car market retail sales in the first week of April reached an average of 25,000 units per day, down 32% year-on-year and down 39% from the average for the first week of March this year.

The overall narrow passenger car market retail sales in the second week of April reached an average of 27,000 units per day, down 39% year-on-year and down 33% from the average for the second week of March this year, and it is normal that the decline this week is small due to the outbreak of the epidemic in mid-March.

The overall narrow passenger car market retail sales in the third week of April reached an average of 30,000 units per day, down 46% year-on-year and down 20% from the average of the third week of March this year, and it is normal that the decline this week is small due to the outbreak in mid-March.

The overall narrow passenger car market retail sales in the fourth week of April reached an average of 63,000 units per day, down 28% year-on-year, and there was a significant improvement from the third week of this year, down 13% from the average of the fourth week of March this year.

According to the monthly preliminary statistics of manufacturers within the China Automobile Dealers Association-Automobile Market Research Branch (CAFTU), the retail sales in April this year were 1.052 million vehicles, with an average daily retail sales of 35,000 vehicles, a large decrease of 35% year-on-year, reflecting the relatively sluggish demand under the recent complex epidemic.

In April, the retail sales of the passenger car market continued to remain low, which was affected by the epidemic and other factors, and the measures to resolutely block the epidemic in various places had a certain impact on the store operations of dealers.In April, dealers in Jilin, Shanghai, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and other places were affected by the store and transactions, and about 20% of the dealers of some brands were stationary, the loss of passenger flow interruption was larger, and the loss of some brand models was reduced by more than 95%, so the retail loss of passenger cars in April was larger.

The launch of new vehicles in March and April is still an important measure to promote sales. This year's manufacturers' new product listing rhythm is facing a comprehensive adjustment, which is not conducive to the development effect of local auto shows, and brings certain losses to the promotion link in the marketing communication of dealers in April, and the sales environment of conventional fuel vehicles is blocked. At present, new energy vehicles still rely on streaming media to maintain customer enthusiasm for car viewing, which is good for the convenience of new energy vehicles.

3. Weekly wholesale trend of passenger car market in April

The overall narrow passenger car market wholesale reached an average of 24,000 units per day in the first week of April, down 39% year-on-year and down 45% from the average in the first week of March this year.

The overall narrow passenger car market in the second week of April reached an average of 23,000 units per day, down 51% year-on-year and down 51% from the average for the second week of March this year.

The overall narrow passenger car market wholesale reached an average of 22,000 units per day in the third week of April, down 61% year-on-year and down 56% from the average in the third week of March this year.

The overall narrow passenger car market wholesale reached an average of 53,000 units per day in the fourth week of April this year, down 39% year-on-year and down 34% from the average in the fourth week of March this year.

The overall narrow passenger car market wholesale preliminary statistics in April this year were at the level of 900,000 units, reaching an average of 30,000 units per day, down 46% year-on-year and 50% lower than in March this year.

Combined with the trend of wholesale and retail of manufacturers, the decline in sales of manufacturers in April is relatively greater than the decline in retail sales, which is also relatively normal, after all, shanghai and northeast car companies basically cleared out their inventory in March, the effective inventory of manufacturers cleared zero, and the structure of production and marketing varieties was seriously imbalanced. The resumption of work and production since April 18 is still in the recovery process from stress testing to normal production, and the low wholesale of manufacturers is a normal phenomenon, but the severity of the decline is still beyond expectations.

Car companies are facing a complex marketing environment, and the pace of production and marketing is relatively passive. April is the golden period for the release of new cars, and the launch of blockbuster new products in March and April has greatly promoted market popularity and manufacturers' sales.

According to the production data of each province of the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai and Jilin Province each account for about 11% of the national production, and the production of some enterprises in Shanghai is running at full capacity, Shanghai is also the core hub of China's high-end auto parts enterprises, so the production and sales of passenger cars in the core areas of the auto industry such as Shanghai and Jilin will be greatly affected in April.

Due to the long automotive industry chain and high coordination requirements, the production and logistics bases of core components such as Shanghai have a wider range of production and radiation, and the production and sales pressure in the automobile market in April is very large.

4. The automobile consumption environment needs to be improved urgently

Affected by the meticulous and deepening management of epidemic control, the current environmental pressure of automobile dealers is relatively large, and some dealers are facing severe measures such as store closures, resulting in the interruption of dealer passenger flow, and it is difficult to complete the whole process of sales such as car viewing, inquiry, test driving, and car ordering, and the demand for car purchase is seriously restricted. Although there are measures such as live car sales to retain the customer's car purchase enthusiasm, offline communication is still an important guarantee for the transaction.

Recently, new car buyers have experienced greater pressure such as declining revenue, and their ability and willingness to buy cars have declined. At present, the traditional fuel vehicle consumer car purchase group belongs to the increase and exchange purchase group, the 4S store marketing of traditional cars is blocked, some consumers can not change the car as planned, delaying the replacement cycle of consumers changing cars, and the sales of high-end models are also significantly weak in the near future. The immediate result is a marked 20 percent drop in state purchase tax revenues, with a sharper decline in April.

Because the operating environment of the automobile 4S store is very good, the space is wide, and the measures such as epidemic prevention are easy to implement, under the trend of the epidemic spreading normality, the business stability of the automobile 4S store should be increased, and certain shopping coupons and other consumption promotion measures should be given to promote the purchase of cars under the epidemic and improve the automobile consumption environment.

5. From January to March 2022, China accounted for 33% of the world's automobile share

Affected by the worldwide epidemic, the world automobile market continued to remain sluggish at the beginning of 2022, but China's sales rebounded strongly around the Spring Festival, with China accounting for 33% of the world's automobile share from January to March. Due to The good effect of China's epidemic control, the economic and social recovery is relatively fast, showing the characteristics of good development. Since the second half of 2020, China's auto market has gradually emerged from the impact of the epidemic, while the auto market under the influence of the epidemic in Europe and the United States has been sluggish, forming a complex situation in the world enterprise market in early 2022.

6. In the first quarter of 2022, China accounted for 59% of the world's new energy vehicle share

From January to March 2022, the sales volume of generalized new energy vehicles was 2.99 million units, of which 920,000 were hybrid vehicles, accounting for 31%. There are 60,000 commercial vehicles in the world's new energy vehicles, and new energy passenger cars are the mainstay. In 2022, China's new energy passenger cars account for 59% of the world's new energy, excellent performance, which is mainly Due to China's strong demand for new energy, while the production and sales of traditional vehicles and new energy vehicles in Europe are low, so China's development is very strong.

The reason for the super performance of new energy vehicle sales in 2022 is the effective pull of market demand, and the policy-driven shift to marketization. Under the influence of the overseas epidemic, the support for new energy policies in Europe and the United States is relatively strong, and the performance of new energy vehicles in Europe in 2020 is outstanding. Subsequently, in 2021, China accounted for 52% of the world's new energy vehicles, and due to the market downturn under the epidemic in Europe, China's world status returned to the high level of 59% in 2022. China's increase in the world is mainly driven by China's new energy vehicle market to market-oriented promotion, forming a strong endogenous growth momentum.

7. It is recommended to increase the support for migrant workers to buy cars

According to the Data Bureau of Statistics, the national migrant workers account for 39.2% of the important components of social employment, the vehicle ownership scale reached 99.75 million, accounting for 33% of the country's 300 million vehicles, and the potential and significance of improving the migrant workers' car market are very large.

According to the survey, from 15.9% in 2015 to 34.1% in 2021, the vehicle ownership rate has increased relatively quickly, especially in the past few years, the average annual growth rate of about 4 percentage points, the performance is a relatively strong feature.

The overall ownership of vehicles owned by migrant workers has also risen from 44 million to the current 99.75 million, that is, nearly 100 million vehicles are migrant workers' vehicles, including the production and operation and the total number of living vehicles, which is an important component of the growth of our automobile market.