Baker Street Detective Officer
Author: Bao Kemeng
Tesla and BYD announced the recall of a number of electric models at the same time; Ningde times dug Huawei's corner into the power exchange market, will the electric vehicle market change?
On April 29, 2022, BYD filed to return 9,663 Electric Vehicles of The Tang DM model produced from September 2, 2021 to March 14, 2022. Because the power battery pack tray of this part of the vehicle is not flat due to manufacturing reasons, the installation surface of the tray ventilation valve is uneven, and there is a risk of water ingress, which may cause the electrical circuit failure of the power battery system.
According to BYD's April production and sales express, the company has completely stopped production of fuel vehicles and focused on the production of new energy vehicles, but in less than a month, BYD recalled vehicles due to the failure of its battery system, which inevitably made the market worry about whether its revenue level would be affected.
Warring States period
In February 1995, Wang Chuanfu, who worked at Big Battery Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the Beijing Nonferrous Metals Research Institute, resigned and went to the sea to found BYD.
In the same year, Wang Chuanfu sent the battery produced by the company to the cordless telephone manufacturer Daba for trial, with a high cost performance, Da was deeply satisfied, and introduced BYD to Sanyo. It can be seen that BYD's business is actually batteries, but it was originally to make batteries for mobile phones. 4 years later, another new company intervened in the battery field, also starting from the mobile phone, and also developed into the industry's leading enterprise, that is, the Ningde era.
It's just that Wang Chuanfu did not expect that he insisted on battery technology for more than 20 years, so that this Ningde era, which was 4 years later than his own establishment, only took 7 years to master.
According to EVsales statistics, from 2016 to 2020, the global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 2.58 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 37.08%; China's new energy vehicle sales increased by 1.04 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.94%, and the global and Chinese new energy vehicle markets showed rapid development.
As the power source of new energy vehicles, the market size of power batteries has expanded with the growth of new energy vehicle sales. From 2016 to 2020, the global power battery shipments increased from 40.52GWh to 193GWh, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.6% respectively; China's power battery shipments increased from 30.5GWh to 80GWh, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.3%.
Benefiting from the rapid development of new energy vehicles, China's power battery installed capacity has shown a rapid growth trend from 2016 to 2020. According to GGII statistics, the installed capacity of power batteries increased from 28.2GWh in 2016 to 62.9GWh in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.40%.
The leading position of the industry in the Ningde era has gradually established, and the domestic installed capacity has increased from 6.72GWh in 2016 to 32.3GWh in 2019, and the market share has increased from 24% to 51.8%. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, although the installed capacity and market share have decreased slightly, its leading position is still stable.
Although BYD's installed capacity increased significantly from 2016 to 2018 due to the battery not opening to the outside world, the installed capacity has decreased year by year since 2018, and its market share has also decreased from 20% to 14.3%. Until 2021, BYD's domestic new energy vehicle sales and power battery installed capacity ushered in growth again, and its market share returned to more than 20%.
In addition to these two companies, the top ten companies in terms of domestic power battery installed capacity in 2020 and 2021 (before November) include Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Ewell Lithium Energy, Fu Neng Technology, Sunwoda, Ruipu Energy, Zhongxin Airlines (formerly AVIC Lithium Battery), Hive Energy, Jiewei Power, Tafil and Lishen Battery.
In addition, Penghui Energy's market share has increased significantly in recent years, and Wanxiang A123 has a high market share in the field of 48V batteries. The market share of the above 12 second-line power battery companies has experienced great ups and downs in recent years. In the first 11 months of 2021, affected by the explosive growth of new energy vehicle sales, the installed capacity of second-tier battery companies increased by about 69% year-on-year, and the market share decreased slightly.
Among the second-tier enterprises, the market share of Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Fu Neng Technology has always been in the position of the middle of the market and can follow the development of the market; Zhongxin Airlines has developed rapidly in recent years and ranked at the upstream level of the industry; after the divestiture of Honeycomb Energy from Great Wall Motors, it has actively developed new energy vehicle customers and achieved a significant increase in installed capacity.
Ewell Lithium Energy and Sunwoda, from the traditional consumer battery business into the automotive power battery business, the installed capacity has increased steadily; Ruipu Energy, Penghui Energy, Jiewei Power, Tafer, etc. have entered the core supply system of some OEMs, and the ranking has risen or fallen to varying degrees; Wanxiang has deeply cultivated the 48V field, and the products have entered the supply chain of well-known OEMs.
At this stage, the second-tier manufacturers have obvious momentum of expansion, the product line shows a diversified layout trend, from the domestic supply structure in 2020, it can be seen that Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Ruipu Energy, Zhongxin Airlines, Lishen Battery are shipped in terms of ternary and lithium iron, the future battery industry is expected to enter the Warring States era, the first possible change is the second-tier manufacturers collectively encircling the Ningde era and BYD battery market share.
There is a difficult scripture in the family
In the era of automotive battery warring states, the Ningde era has a scale advantage after all, and the customer covers the industry's leading enterprises, but BYD in addition to self-sales, the number of supplier car companies is low. If the Ningde era is regarded as a "market economy", then BYD is still in the "small farmer economy" period and is gradually expanding potential customers of battery products.
Although BYD's current operating structure can vigorously ensure the company's vehicle output, it will not lead to production reductions due to insufficient battery supply, and there will be no wang Chuanfu going to the ningde era in front of the door of "one cry, two troubles and three hangings", but it also indirectly increases the difficulty of the company's operation.
For example, the bydir electric vehicle recall incident, although the company's free replacement of the battery pack for the problem vehicle is very sincere, but it will further reduce the profitability of the battery business, and from the company's power battery installed capacity of the domestic market share, BYD from 2016 to 2021 in the first 11 months of the market share fluctuated greatly, but also indirectly proved that the business module anti-risk ability is low.
The main competitor of BYD's battery business, Catalonia times recently introduced Huawei's intelligent car solution BU general manager of intelligent car control field Cai Jianyong, responsible for the CTC battery chassis integration business, officially entered the power battery 3.0 era. But before that, the leader has already introduced CTC products to the market before the Ningde era, in other words, the Ningde era is actually lagging behind the second-tier manufacturers in technology.
Reflected in the secondary market, the stock price of CATL times has almost cut from a high price of 687 yuan per share in December 2021 to 376 yuan per share at the close of May 5, a decline of more than 45%.
CTC (cell -to -chassis) technology, is the battery, chassis and car body integrated design, reduce redundant structural design, effectively reduce the number of parts, in the improvement of space utilization and system specific energy at the same time, the body and battery structure can be complementary, so that the battery impact resistance, and body torsional stiffness has been greatly improved.
The goal of this technology is similar to the blade battery that BYD just came out. On February 22 this year, BYD replied when interacting with investors on the interactive platform that the company's electric model has been fully equipped with blade batteries, charging and discharging more than 3,000 times.
According to this calculation, even if it is fully charged and discharged once a day, the blade battery can also be used for 8 years, and most electric vehicles are used for short-distance commuting, even if the actual commuting distance is 500 kilometers, the cycle of full charge and discharge is about 2-3 days, the use cycle of the blade battery can usually be maintained at 15 years, and most people change the car cycle top line, but only 15 years, that is, BYD's blade battery is enough to cope with the use cycle of electric vehicles, unless there is a problem in the recall.
Perhaps because BYD blade batteries also have a certain degree of advancedity, as well as the vehicle production and operation mode, more diversified than the single battery production in the Ningde era, the company's stock price fell by only one-half of the Ningde era, that is, the stock price fell by 23%.
The future direction of the power battery
From the perspective of the secondary market, also a major manufacturer of power batteries, BYD's stock price is more resistant to falling than the Ningde era. In addition to the company's more diversified business, the company's blade battery itself has created a new structure of power batteries.
At present, the mainstream power batteries on the market are mainly 4680 batteries, CTP/CTC technology and blade batteries. Structural innovation takes large capacity and high integration as the core, and 4680, CTP, CTC, etc. are the direction.
Among them, 4680 large cylindrical batteries, Tesla has successfully landed in Q1 2022, and the large cylindrical cylinder will drive the demand for high nickel cathode + silicon carbon anode + carbon nanotube conductive agent + large cylindrical structural parts + new lithium salt.
CTP technology without module, can improve energy density by 20%, reduce costs by 10%, in 2021 Ningde, BYD has matured to promote, Ningde era CTP 3.0, 4.0 technology development, will promote the battery energy density to further improve, CTC is expected to be mass production in 2025, but do not know that the use of zero-run CTC technology power battery, will have robbed the cake of the Ningde era.
In addition to structural changes, the upgrading of the battery chemical system is also imminent, the trend of ternary high nickel, the share in 2021 has been increased to 40%, and the pure electrification platform of overseas car companies has been launched, and the proportion of high nickel has been further improved. In 2023, the ultra-high nickel cathode will be mass-produced on a large scale, and the battery end Ningde and the material end will take the lead in layout.
Lithium ferromanganese phosphate is the upgrading direction of lithium iron phosphate, with the advantages of lithium iron, it can increase the energy density by 20%, but the conductivity is poor, the process is difficult, the barrier is high, the current battery end Ningde, the material end of the German side of the progress is faster, we expect large-scale mass production in the first half of 2023, in addition to the Ningde era proposed M3P new technology route, may also become a new direction in the future.
However, compared with sodium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries, the above upgrades are not enough to subvert the power battery industry. The sodium-ion battery launched by CATL last year is currently far ahead of its peers. Although the company's power battery monomer density is still 160Wh/kg, the second generation of batteries is expected to reach 200Wh/kg, which is comparable to that of lithium iron batteries, and the system integration efficiency can reach more than 80%, even slightly higher than that of iron lithium and ternary batteries.
In addition, sodium-ion batteries have good performance in fast charging, low temperature performance, safety and cycle life. Ningde sodium battery can be superimposed AB system solution, the application scenarios are broad, the company is expected to be able to mass production in 23 years.
Another subversive solid-state battery, the current research and development progress of major manufacturers around the world is not much different. Although Japan is the first country to develop, the number of related patents has reached 916, and 400Wh/L all-solid-state batteries have been developed, and the battery samples in the pilot stage have been completed, and the commercialization of solid-state sulfide batteries will be realized in 2020.
The mainland and the United States are in the second echelon, China in January 2020 successfully developed multi-system sulfide solid electrolyte, germanium and halogen element solid electrolyte, has achieved pilot mass production; the United States SEEO, Ionic Materials and other enterprises, in 2019 received a number of overseas car companies investment, is fully engaged in the development of high-performance solid-state batteries.
In other countries, South Korea's leading battery companies have joined forces to establish a 100 billion won fund to engage in solid-state battery technology research and development; the German government has given R&D support in funding, investing 1 billion euros in the development of next-generation solid-state batteries.
With the introduction of new power battery products, as well as various favorable policies continue to be released, the overall development of the electric vehicle industry is bound to be getting better and better, but some small and medium-sized enterprises are slower in technology iteration, which will inevitably lead to the company's development lagging behind the development of the industry, thus being eliminated, BYD, Ningde era has a certain moat, second-tier manufacturers are establishing their own moats, such as CTC technology leading zero run, and with the current of manufacturers, after 2025 I am afraid that will face the first wave of elimination.
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