Shanghai has been clearing the social surface for several consecutive days, and on May 1, it was announced that six districts had reached basic zero, and the impact of the epidemic on us was slowly fading, but during the month of the lockdown in Shanghai, one industry was actually greatly affected.
Semiconductor materials, integrated circuits, chips, which are often collectively referred to as semiconductor industries, because it not only affects the industry, but also holds the lifeblood of many upstream and downstream industries.
For example, the mobile phones and computers we usually use need chips and many semiconductor components, and now the vigorous automobiles and new energy vehicles also need it. In recent years, car sales have been very poor, because of the shortage of chips, resulting in car production.
(Source: Huawei Terminal BG CEO, Car BU CEO Circle of Friends)
As long as the electronic products related to our daily life, it is inseparable from semiconductors, not to mention, there are many professional appliances used in science and technology, industrial production, all need it.
This is an industry that affects the whole body, and it is precisely it that has been greatly affected by the epidemic in Shanghai for only one reason - Shanghai, which is the first city of mainland semiconductors.
01
Shanghai occupies half of the domestic semiconductor industry
In the eyes of many people, Shanghai is a financial center, Pudong three-piece set is its symbol, even if people know that Shanghai has Tesla, There is Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, few people will notice that Shanghai is actually focusing on the development of a high-tech industry: the semiconductor industry.
(Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute)
Moreover, Shanghai has long become the well-deserved first in the mainland semiconductor industry.
Let's look at a data, in 2021, the national integrated circuit sales exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 1,045.83 billion yuan; among them, Shanghai's sales were 257.885 billion yuan, an increase of more than 20%, that is to say, a Shanghai contributed a quarter of the sales to the national integrated circuit industry.
Moreover, not only is the industrial scale the first in the country, Shanghai also has a very complete integrated circuit industry cluster, covering all aspects of the upstream, middle and lower reaches, which is very rare.
From chip design, manufacturing, packaging and testing to semiconductor materials, semiconductor equipment and multiple segments, Shanghai has everything, which can be said to be China's "core" dirty.
(Source: SMIC in Zhangjiang)
For example, about half of the major chip companies in China have office addresses in Shanghai, such as SMIC, Huahong Group, Zhongwei Company, Shengmei Shanghai, Anji Technology, Weier Shares, Geke Micro, SiRuipu and other company headquarters are located in Shanghai.
Moreover, the world's major chip companies, equipment giants, wafer foundries, memory manufacturers, and leading packaging and testing companies have basically set up R&D centers or offices in Shanghai.
Because of these leading enterprises, many semiconductor-related technology innovations have all been completed in Shanghai.
(Source: skr Technology)
For example, Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd. developed the country's first 28nm lithography machine; SMIC broke the blockade of the United States on us, successfully developed and produced the only domestic 14nm chip...
Shanghai semiconductor scientific research capabilities are very strong, in some segments of mainland semiconductors, is the only one that can break the US blockade and support most of the Chinese chip. The leading enterprises in the industry in all aspects of the middle and upper reaches are concentrated in Shanghai, and these leading enterprises are the core of industrial agglomeration.
Therefore, Shanghai has naturally successfully realized the industrial cluster phenomenon in the upstream and downstream of the entire industrial chain, and has expanded to the entire Yangtze River Delta region.
The gathering of more than 700 enterprises, coupled with Shanghai's own rich university talents and attraction of talents, allows Shanghai to have 40% of the talents in this industry.
The scale of semiconductors in Shanghai is getting bigger and bigger, so that after the Shanghai epidemic has stagnated, the impact on the entire industry is also difficult to estimate, let's take a look at the segments.
(Source: MIC)
For example, wafer manufacturing, wafer is the silicon wafer that must be used to manufacture semiconductor circuits, without it, there is no way to make chips.
In China, in addition to SMIC's production capacity in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the rest of the factories are basically located in Shanghai and other cities in the Yangtze River Delta, such as Wuxi, Ningbo and so on.
Therefore, once the factories in Shanghai and the surrounding Yangtze River Delta region stagnate, then the whole country will fall into a lack of wafers.
There is also a last step in processing chips is packaging and testing, in 2020, the entire Yangtze River Delta region of packaging and testing sales, accounting for 73.3% of the country.
That is to say, almost the entire chip packaging test is done in the Yangtze River Delta.
However, due to the impact of the epidemic, some semiconductor factories in Shanghai have positive patients, resulting in factory stagnation; Kunshan, which is closer to Shanghai, has also experienced a large-scale shutdown.
In Shanghai and Kunshan alone, more than 161 listed companies in Taiwan Province have stopped working, including 41 electronic component companies, 16 electrical machinery companies, 15 computer and peripheral equipment companies, 15 other electronic companies, 10 optoelectronic companies...
The Taiwan Provincial Circuit Board Association also claimed that about 60% of the circuit board industry was in the epidemic area, which had a great impact. The stagnation during the epidemic has a very large impact on the semiconductor industry, not only the whole country, but also the world has produced a "lack of core" phenomenon because of Shanghai.
(Source: Weibo)
There is even no chip, some factories in the United States have begun to dismantle smart washing machines to take the core, not to mention, a little calculation to know that the value of this chip has now exceeded the value of washing machines.
You say that the impact of the Shanghai epidemic on semiconductors is not particularly large?
02
Even if the partial resumption of work, Shanghai semiconductor companies are still affected by logistics
The semiconductor industry is too critical, so in the epidemic, there are also many companies that are starting work, allowing employees to manage the two points and one line between the dormitory and the factory to ensure production. Even though the number of employees who can return to work may be small, they are still working.
(Source: Shanghai Release)
Moreover, when Shanghai achieved certain results in the fight against the epidemic, many of the companies that took the lead in resuming work were also in the semiconductor industry. Although more or less semiconductor companies have begun to resume work, the situation is still not very optimistic, and there is still a key problem: logistics problems.
Now the logistics are not smooth, raw materials can not come in, products can not be transported out
This is a very real problem: drivers in Shanghai cannot go out to deliver goods to other places; if they enter Shanghai, the return trip will be subject to 14 days of control.
Not many suppliers are willing to stop for 14 days to deliver to Shanghai, it is better to wait until the unsealing. Even if someone is willing to ship, the logistics freight is also a price increase of thousands and thousands, which is many times higher than the contract.
According to relevant media reports, some logistics companies have risen from 600 yuan / ton of freight before the epidemic to 3000-4000 yuan / ton, and the increase is really exaggerated.
Moreover, this is not necessarily guaranteed to be shipped.
(Source: Electronics Enthusiast Network)
Since April, the toll stations around Shanghai have set up epidemic prevention points, and many high-speed toll stations have been closed, and the layers of obstacles in the transportation process have also increased the time cost of transportation, of course, it has also been fed back on the freight.
In addition to the domestic transportation is not very smooth, the Shanghai epidemic has also affected the overseas transportation situation, many raw materials of semiconductors need to be purchased overseas, and some products are also shipped to overseas for further processing.
Now, while customs are still working, we can look at the impact of the pandemic on ports.
We can see that Ningbo, Shanghai and Suzhou are all foreign trade ports, while the Yangtze River Delta has been affected to a certain extent by the epidemic. This has led to the accumulation of many goods, and even many cargo ships cannot enter the port, resulting in stagnation.
Therefore, even if semiconductor companies have resumed production, it is not easy to open up these logistics links. It is not easy not only to open up the logistics in Shanghai, but also to open up the logistics of Shanghai and other provinces and cities, intercity trains, ports, etc., and to ensure that logistics companies can operate normally.
03
Under the impact of the industry, some not-so-good signals appeared
Now, rumors are that foreign semiconductor giants have begun to withdraw from Shanghai.
On April 18, some media outlets came up with internal documents from ON Semiconductor, which claimed to be one of the top ten automotive chip companies in the global automotive semiconductor industry, announcing the closure of a global distribution center in Shanghai and the relocation to Singapore.
In this document, ON Semiconductor directly said that it was because of the closure that the service of its materials, equipment and service providers was interrupted, but in fact, the logistics were blocked.
On April 25, Onsenmei denied this claim, saying it was actively preparing for the resumption of work. Although the emigration of ON Semiconductor has been denied, we must face up to one thing: under the catalysis of the epidemic, foreign capital will either flow out or reduce investment.
Don't think it's a small thing.
(Source: ON Semiconductor official website)
ON Semiconductor's electronic components are particularly widely used in automobiles, it supplies more than 80,000 kinds of semiconductor components, and in some image sensor fields, its market share is more than 60%, which is the first in the market. Moreover, it is more regrettable that we cannot replace it with domestic production for a while and a half, more than 80,000 kinds of components, which is not a small number.
Our country's automotive semiconductor component manufacturers are still developing, to compare with the world's top ten companies, the volume gap is also very large, I believe onsenmei must know that it is difficult to find a region like Shanghai where the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are complete, so it denies the relocation.
But in any case, the uncertainty brought by the epidemic to the semiconductor industry makes it very likely that foreign investors will re-evaluate domestic production lines.
This is not good news for our semiconductor industry as a whole. If foreign semiconductor giants reduce production capacity and transfer investment, then the industrial clusters we have gathered will be greatly affected.
Moreover, it can be seen that this automotive semiconductor company has indeed affected the new energy automobile industry.
Think about the semiconductor industry is also very difficult, the epidemic, natural disasters, geopolitics, etc., in recent years, the semiconductor industry has been affected by various impacts, this time the Shanghai epidemic, and has been affected to varying degrees.
From another point of view, after too many uncertainties, the semiconductor industry's future crisis awareness and ability to resist pressure will be stronger, at least, in the future, it may be more reserve raw materials, as well as multi-point distribution.
Although it is some regret that foreign-funded enterprises have envisaged withdrawal, in the long run, Shanghai's industrial chain has matured, and more semiconductor companies will gather in the future.
As the social situation of the epidemic in Shanghai has been cleared for several consecutive days, more and more enterprises have resumed work and production.
I hope that the epidemic will end soon, and I hope that the semiconductor industry can quickly rebound after the resumption of work to make up for this stagnant time.
The above is the main text, from the first dawn