Fuel vehicle conquest for a hundred years to dominate, the end of the road and counterattack

Per reporter: Li Xing Huang Xinxu Per reporter: Yi Qijiang

Since a car entered the Imperial Palace of the Qing Dynasty around 1902, and since then, the world has changed, and for a hundred years, China has been a hard catch-up in the field of traditional fuel vehicle manufacturing in the world.

More than 100 years later, China has become the world's largest automobile producer and sales country. The legendary modern entrepreneur Wang Chuanfu, who founded BYD, has become one of the two major hegemons of new energy vehicles in the world in terms of production and sales. China's new energy vehicles, represented by BYD, Weilai and Xiaopeng Motors, are becoming subversives of traditional cars in another track, stirring up the world automobile pattern.

On April 3 this year, BYD announced the suspension of fuel vehicles, becoming the first car company in the world to officially announce the suspension of fuel vehicles.

The car that Empress Dowager Cixi rode in is still in the Summer Palace, witnessing the ups and downs of China from backwardness to rise. However, the car family has already undergone earth-shaking changes. New energy vehicles are in the ascendant, is it possible that fuel vehicles will soon be dusted into history and become a symbol that has only witnessed history?

Just the suspension of fuel vehicles by Chinese companies in the world's largest auto market is not enough to show that fuel vehicles are driving to the end, and the performance of an electric car in the world's top car rally event, the Dakar Rally, also set off a bloody storm in the fuel car: not long ago, on January 4, the electric car audi RS Q E-Tron driven by Spanish racing driver Carlos Sainz won the first stage of the race on the third day of the Dakar Rally. It has shaken the status of fuel vehicles in the world of unified racing.

With the wave of electrification sweeping through the entire automotive industry, many car companies at home and abroad have been formulating timetables for stopping production and selling fuel vehicles, and most of them have finalized the time point between 2025 and 2030.

Those who have the unique insight to invest in the field of new energy vehicles have already made a lot of money. For example, buffett announced in 2008 that he had spent $230 million to buy 225 million shares of BYD shares listed on Hong Kong stocks, and as of the end of 2021, Buffett still held 225 million shares, with a total market value of $7.693 billion in BYD stocks. In the past 13 years, BYD has made Buffett more than 32 times more profitable.

On April 20, the staff carried out the assembly of new energy vehicles at the automobile assembly plant of Bydy Caotang Industrial Park in Xi'an Xinhua News Agency

◎ Disruptors

121 years ago, the automobile subverted the perception of Chinese

In 1901, a Hungarian named Leinz arrived in Shanghai with two American-made "Oldsmobile" cars. These are two cars with black wooden bodies. One is a folding roof and the other is an awning roof. Wooden wheel spokes, solid tires, plus kerosene lamps and hand-held horns.

The automobile was only invented fourteen or five years ago: the Germans Carl Benz and Gottlieb Daimler, a three-wheeled car made from bicycle parts and a four-stroke engine developed by themselves, obtained the patent rights to the world's first car on January 29, 1886, which marked the birth of the world's first car, and then this day was called the birth day of the car.

Compared with the mainstream rickshaws and horse-drawn carriages in Shanghai at that time, such advanced means of transportation shocked Chinese and subverted the public's perception of the world.

On January 30, 1902, the Shanghai Public Concession Ministry of Works held a meeting and decided to issue a temporary license plate to Li Enshi's car and allow it to drive on the street.

The cars that Li Enshi imported into Shanghai and the one that Empress Dowager Cixi took were all in China before and after 1902. China's official entry into the field of automobile manufacturing was after the founding of the People's Republic of China.

More than a hundred years later, China's new energy vehicles have subverted the world pattern

Due to its late start, China has always been just a hard catch-up in the field of traditional fuel vehicle manufacturing.

When Chinese started construction of the first automobile manufacturing plant in Changchun on July 15, 1953, preparing to catch up with the world automobile manufacturing industry; when the Chinese successfully produced the first Jiefang brand fuel car on July 14, 1956, who could have imagined that after decades of catching up on the fuel car track and catching the world by surprise, China began to subvert the world automobile industry in another automobile track (new energy vehicles). The world has to sigh: this world is really unpredictable!

In 2021, the mainland's automobile production and sales reached 26.082 million units and 26.275 million units, respectively, maintaining the world's largest automobile production and sales for 13 consecutive years, and the mainland's position as the world's largest automobile market power was further consolidated.

In 2021, mainland new energy vehicle sales ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years, with production and sales of 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year.

In 2021, China produced about 60% of global electric vehicle production that year, and 3.521 million units sold, more than half of the total global sales (about 6.5 million units) that year.

At the same time, the export volume of new energy vehicles, China is also far more than the second ranked Germany. In 2021, the mainland will export 310,000 new energy vehicles throughout the year, an increase of 3 times year-on-year, and the European markets such as the United Kingdom, Norway, Germany, and France have become the main incremental markets.

Benefiting from China's unified market, BYD and Tesla have grown into the two major hegemons of new energy vehicles in the world.

Tesla accounted for 14% of the 6.5 million new energy vehicles sold worldwide in 2021, or about 936,200 units, while its Shanghai factory delivered 484,100 units, more than half of its total sales.

Another hegemon, BYD, although its new energy vehicle sales rank second in the world, but in China surpassed Tesla, which ranked first in global sales. According to the data, in 2021, BYD's annual sales of new energy passenger cars were 593,700 units, an increase of 231.6% year-on-year. It has only been 26 years since Wang Chuanfu borrowed 2.5 million yuan in 1995 to establish a BYD company in Shenzhen.

Fifteen years ago, on August 9, 2007, BYD held a grand ceremony for the F6 off-line of a high-end sedan in Shenzhen, and when Wang Chuanfu, who was wearing striped short sleeves, shouted at the scene that "the future of the world is hybrid, electric vehicles, not gasoline vehicles", many people in the industry just smiled slightly.

At the end of March this year, according to the information disclosed in the minutes of the BYD investor meeting, BYD's new energy vehicle orders in hand are as high as 400,000, and they are still increasing. In order to cope with the peak of delivery, BYD is expanding its production capacity nationwide. Wang Chuanfu once told reporters with regret: "We still underestimate the hot sales situation of new energy vehicles. ”

BYD no longer needs fuel vehicles. In 2022, Wang Chuanfu became the first person in the world: the founder of the first car company to officially announce the suspension of production of fuel vehicles.

Countless people are intoxicated by the surging power of fuel vehicles and become fuel vehicles chasers, suddenly, but find that the focus of "chasing light" has changed.

"The 100 km acceleration of the Porsche Cayenne 4.0T model is 3.9s, which is the accumulation of Porsche's decades of research and development results, and it is not known how many generations of engineers have worked hard and tens of thousands of tests to have this achievement." But now many electric vehicles can reach this level casually. (Editor's Note: Tesla's official data shows that the Model 300 km acceleration is 3.3 seconds, while the Model S 100 km acceleration is only 2.1 seconds) "Recently, Xiao Li, a graduate student of fuel vehicle ace major (vehicle engineering), was difficult to hide his inner conflict in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter.

◎ Light chaser

"I can follow behind you and sleepwalk like a shadow chasing the light." These are two lyrics from "The Light Chaser", sung by Cen Ning'er and lyrics by Tang Tian and won the 25th Annual Golden Melody Award of the Oriental Wind and Cloud Chart.

The meaning of "Light Chaser" is roughly: after talking about an indescribable love, I never leave standing silently behind you.

The song title, lyrics, and the meaning behind it are almost like writing for Xiao Li, who graduated from the above-mentioned graduate school in vehicle engineering.

Light Chaser One: Fuel Vehicle Ace Graduate Student

Fascinated by automotive machinery, Xiao Li was born in 1988 and is a native of Hebei. 15 years ago, in 2007, the top student Xiao Li pinned what he had learned all his life, and finally got his wish and was admitted to the coveted mechanical manufacturing and automation major. After graduating from undergraduate, from 2011 to 2014, he studied vehicle engineering.

However, Xiao Li, a graduate student majoring in the field of fuel vehicles, when he graduated, found that the car can already do without fuel engines!

Xiao Li has been a car chaser since he was a child. "When I was a child, cars were rare, and I was fascinated by automotive machinery from the beginning of my life, so I didn't hesitate to choose a mechanical manufacturing major when I applied for a major in college." As a post-85, Xiao Li's growth is in the opposite direction of the rapid development of the domestic automobile industry.

At that time, the advertising slogan of "own Santana, walk all over the world is not afraid" was almost a household name.

"I was admitted to the university in 2007, and in the year of admission, the mechanical design and manufacturing and automation major of our school were just approved by the Ministry of Education as the characteristic professional construction of national colleges and universities. This is a very good major in our school and the competition is fierce. Many were not admitted and were transferred to colleges such as electronic information engineering, computers, and software. Xiao Li still remembers his excitement when he was admitted to his dream major.

After graduation, Xiao Li was selected by a traditional car company as he wished to become an automotive gearbox engineer. His classmates went to automotive technology companies or new car-making companies that had never been heard of, while those who were transferred to information engineering, computer science and other colleges went to Internet companies. Choices are different, and life is different from then on.

"Since 2014, the popularity of Internet companies has been very high, many companies are in various financing, and the numbers are eye-catching. At that time, I would joke with my classmates that the Internet company they went to was rich. But I wasn't really envious in my heart, and my salary wasn't very low (7k to 8k) at the time. ”

"Now, my classmates who go to the Internet have been talking about annual salaries for a long time. They jump between large factories, change jobs like a common thing, about every job hopping, the wage increase is 30% to start, sometimes the salary can be directly doubled. In contrast, my work seems to be the same for ten years, and although my salary is rising, it is very slow. When I think negatively, I feel like a screw that's tightly fastened to an old machine. ”

Although he is still young, the speed of change in the automotive industry still makes Xiao Li confused and unable to keep up with the rhythm.

"The fuel engine has been developed for a hundred years, the relevant technology has been mastered, and every step is very difficult. But as engineers, we have only one idea: how to further improve the performance of fuel vehicles. Every time the study raises eyebrows, we are very happy and proud. Recalling those days of hard work, Xiao Li is still full of happiness.

But slowly, Xiao Li felt some changes. The company's focus began to tilt towards new energy vehicles, more and more people around choose to transfer to the new energy sector, and every year the new faces are also keen to discuss new energy technologies such as "three electricity" and "BMS (battery management system)".

"In fact, there are many times when I also doubt whether my insistence is correct, but seeing the market share of fuel vehicles, as well as new energy vehicles still have technical shortcomings such as fast power loss in winter and difficulty in charging, I feel that the road for fuel vehicles is still very long." Xiao Li said. At this time, singing the phrase "I can follow behind you, like a shadow chasing the light sleepwalking", can perfectly express your mood.

In real life, the so-called chasing light is where the focus is, and the light is chased where it is. Some auto parts suppliers are also gradually feeling that the automotive industry is chasing light from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles.

Light Chaser 2: Automotive industry parts supplier

"In the past, our customers were fuel vehicle OEMs and some suppliers of fuel vehicles, but in recent years, we have clearly felt that the proportion of new energy vehicle customers is gradually increasing. In recent years, when meeting with customers, the new energy business has been listed as a key point. In 2019, the proportion of new energy customers was about 23.16%. Now, Tesla and NIO have become our top two customers. Wang Yu, an employee of an automotive wiring harness supplier, told reporters.

In fact, under the wave of electrification, in addition to the main engine factory, many auto suppliers are also facing the impact. Taking the wiring harness supplier as an example, their process of chasing light is from the wiring harness to the intelligent network.

"The use of wiring harnesses in electric vehicles is getting less and less, and instead of domain control modules, we may also be on the verge of losing our jobs." Wang Yu said that many wiring harness engineer colleagues have changed careers to study programming design, to catch up with the trend of intelligent network technology, in order not to be eliminated.

"R&D and production in the era of fuel engines may require 10 engineers, but after electrification, only 1 engineer is needed to do it." Jiang Jian, vice president of Bosch China, helplessly told the "Daily Economic News" reporter.

In strong contrast to fuel auto parts suppliers, ningde era is the king of new energy vehicle supply, Ningde era is also often referred to as "Ningwang" in the capital market, which is a world-leading lithium-ion battery provider, focusing on the research and development, production and sales of new energy vehicle power battery systems and energy storage systems.

According to the 2020 annual report released by CATL, the total operating income of the year was about 50.319 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 5.583 billion yuan, an increase of 22.43% year-on-year. During the reporting period, the company's lithium-ion battery sales increased by 14.36% year-on-year, of which the sales volume of power battery systems increased by 10.43% year-on-year.

Only one year later, the 2021 annual report just released by CATL on the evening of April 22 showed that the operating income of the year was about 130.356 billion yuan, an increase of 159.06% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 15.931 billion yuan, an increase of 185.34% year-on-year. The sales of power battery systems are its main source of revenue, with sales revenue reaching 91.491 billion yuan, an increase of 132.06% year-on-year. During the reporting period, the company deepened its long-term strategic cooperation with global customers such as Tesla, Hyundai, Ford, Daimler, Great Wall Motor, Ideal, and NIO.

Chasing the focus of new energy vehicles, the market value of CATL reached 1.59 trillion yuan on November 22, 2021, surpassing the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, known as the "cosmic line", ranking second in the A stock market value, second only to Guizhou Moutai. Although the A-share Shanghai Index fell 2.26% and the Shenzhen Component Index plunged 2.7% on April 21 this year, as of the close of the day, the market value of CATL was still above 950 billion yuan, ranking eighth in A-shares.

As a new energy vehicle manufacturer, BYD is one of the focal points that is being chased. In 2021, BYD's stock price rose another 38.06% after surging more than 300% in the previous year, which brought huge benefits to investors including Buffett. Buffett has spent $230 million since 2008 to buy 225 million shares of Byd's shares listed on Hong Kong stocks. According to BYD's 2021 annual report, Buffett still holds 225 million shares by the end of 2021, and its total market value of BYD's holdings is $7.693 billion. Based on this market capitalization, IND has made Buffett more than 32 times more profitable in 13 years.

As early as October 2009, BYD's market value exceeded 180 billion yuan.

As of the close of trading on April 21 this year, BYD's total market capitalization is also above 680 billion yuan, compared with Porsche's proposed IPO valuation of 90 billion euros (about 630 billion yuan) this year, BYD is still ahead of the super giant in the field of fuel vehicles.

◎ Witness

The battle between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles did not start at present.

"In fact, the birth of electric vehicles is earlier than fuel vehicles, and for a long time, the ownership and market acceptance of electric vehicles are greater than those of fuel vehicles." Yao Chunde, former deputy director of the State Key Laboratory of Combustion of the Internal Combustion Engine of Tianjin University, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the prototype of the electric vehicle driving on the road today is a vehicle invented in the 19th century.

The second rise of electric vehicles based on environmental protection needs

Public information shows that the first battery car was born in 1881, inventors of the French engineer Gustav Truff, which is a tricycle powered by lead-acid batteries. This is about 5 years before the German fuel car "Mercedes-Benz I" patented the world's first car in 1886.

Between the late 19th century and the 1920s, electric vehicles were more easily accepted by the outside world. At the beginning of the 20th century, more than 28% of land traffic in the United States was electric vehicles.

However, the development path of electric vehicles was once interrupted in the later stage. "At that time, electric vehicles faced the problem of 'old and difficult' - charging difficulties, short driving range, etc., and the research for a long time failed to make breakthroughs, coupled with the rapid iteration and improvement of fuel engine technology, electric vehicles began to be gradually replaced by fuel vehicles." Yao Chunde said.

After entering the 21st century, electric vehicle technology, which has been stagnant for more than half a century, has once again attracted the world's attention because it is more environmentally friendly than fuel vehicles. With the policy support of various countries and the joint efforts of all walks of life, the core three electric vehicle technology has been greatly improved, among which the power battery known as the "heart" of electric vehicles has transitioned from the early lead-acid battery to the ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery, etc., and the energy density is also constantly improving. Up to now, the mileage of pure trams has reached 1,000 kilometers.

In recent years, with the rise of new energy electric vehicles and the demand for environmental protection, the voices in society about the end of fuel vehicles have risen one after another.

The reporter explored the C position of the new energy station of the 4S store

Recently, the reporter saw in a 4S store selling fuel vehicles in Beijing that although there are enough models, there are few visitors.

Such a scene made car salesman An lin feel incredible. "10 years ago, we didn't worry about cars not selling out." Anlin said that it was the era when Tiguan was still known as the "god car", and the car dealer could make money lying down. These changes made Anlin sigh. In his concept, the C position of the car sales store is always reserved for the ace vehicle. But I don't know when it started, the model in this position, from a fuel vehicle to an electric car.

In the BYD store that sells new energy vehicles next to it, there is an endless stream of people watching the cars, which confirms the scene of the new energy vehicles being popular in Anlin's discourse.

"Before the company announced the suspension of fuel vehicles, there were almost no fuel vehicles sold in the store." Jiang Man, sales manager of BYD Dynasty Network, stood at the door of the store and calmly told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that now, they do not have fuel vehicles in stock in 6 subordinate sales stores nationwide.

"Since last year, most of the people who come to the store to see the car are the new energy vehicles (including plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles) of the Dynasty series. Fewer people are buying fuel vehicles, and the number of fuel vehicles and stock cars placed in the store will naturally decrease. Xiang Yu, a salesman at the BYD Dynasty Network 4S store, told reporters.

However, whether it is the rumors about the fuel vehicle will drive to the end of the road, or the reporter's on-site investigation, it may just be a peeping leopard in the tube, only to see a glimpse, the data is the most convincing.

Since 2019, global sales of new energy electric vehicles have almost tripled.

According to public data, the total global car sales in 2021 will be about 81.05 million. Among them, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 6.5 million units, an increase of 109% over the same period in 2020, accounting for more than 8% from about 4.16% in 2020. Hybrid vehicle sales also rose 35 percent that year to about 3.1 million units. This year, for the first time, global electric vehicle sales surpassed hybrids.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in the previously released "International Energy Outlook 2021" report that with the deepening of the global energy transition, global fuel vehicle sales are expected to peak in 2038; by 2050, the share of electric vehicles in OECD countries and non-OECD countries is expected to reach 34% and 28%, respectively.

As the world's largest automobile production and sales market for 13 consecutive years, China's automobile market trends will have an important impact on the world automobile pattern. As one of the world's two major hegemons, BYD's announcement of the suspension of fuel vehicles will have a profound impact on the history of the world's automobile industry? BYD stopped production of fuel vehicles, other car companies to follow?

In addition to the Chinese market, the sales of new energy vehicles in the European and American markets are also very rapid (in 2021, the global sales of new energy vehicles will be 6.5 million, in addition to the 3.521 million units in the Chinese market, the sales volume in other countries and regions is still close to 3 million units, and mainly distributed in Europe and the United States). This situation has made many car companies consider the time point of suspension and suspension of fuel vehicles.

The "Daily Economic News" reporter combed and found that domestic car companies plan to stop production and stop selling fuel vehicles in 2025, while foreign car companies will stop production and stop selling fuel vehicles after 2030. as:

Changan Automobile's "Shangri-La" plan clarifies that it will completely stop selling traditional fuel vehicles by 2025, while BAIC Group expects to completely stop selling fuel vehicles by 2025.

Judging from the "timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles" issued by international mainstream car companies, in addition to proposing the time node of their respective suspension of fuel vehicles, it also clarified the timetable for their full electrification in China. For example, Honda announced that it will complete the target of 40% of global pure electric and fuel cell vehicle sales in 2030, and this proportion will reach 100% in 2040. Among them, after 2030, Honda will no longer launch new fuel vehicles in China.

Li Bai, executive vice president of General Motors And president of GM China, also said that GM's ultimate goal is to electrify all new models by 2035. Among them, by the end of 2025, GM will launch more than 30 pure electric vehicles around the world, of which more than 20 pure electric vehicles will be listed in the Chinese market.

In this context, BYD's announcement of "complete suspension of fuel vehicles" will drive other car companies to accelerate "follow-up"? In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the All-China Passenger Transport Association, believes that BYD's model of stopping production fuel vehicles does not have "replicability".

◎ Lookout

Fuel vehicles are not sentenced to death, but capital and so on will automatically turn

"BYD is a car company that starts with batteries, it has core technical advantages such as three electrics that other car companies do not have, and fuel vehicles are BYD's 'weakness'." At this time, the suspension and suspension of fuel vehicles has little impact on THE FUTURE development of BYD. Cui Dongshu said.

For traditional car companies that have established a huge supply chain and production system for fuel vehicles, the suspension of fuel vehicles has a huge impact on them. Public data shows that in 2021, whether it is the luxury brand BBA (Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi), or the independent giants Great Wall, Changan and Geely, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales under their umbrella is only about 10% to 13% of total sales.

"Although BYD's move is of great significance to promote the development of new energy vehicles around the world, it has little impact on traditional car companies that have formulated corresponding development schedules." Because car companies have their own corporate decisions, they will be more according to their own development rhythm. Yang Weibin, an expert in the power battery industry, told reporters.

Although new energy vehicles are developing rapidly, it does not mean that fuel vehicles are about to withdraw from the historical stage. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, predicted that by around 2030, the sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland will be on par with fuel vehicles.

"If you simply say that the oil engine industry is a sunset industry, I don't agree with this statement." It should be said that on the road of carbon emission reduction and zero carbon emissions, the fuel engine industry will become a sunset industry without technological innovation and iteration. Dong Jianfu, secretary of the party committee and vice chairman of the China Fuel Engine Society, said.

In Yao Chunde's view, fuel engines and electric vehicles will be a long-term coexistence relationship. "At present, there is still more than 88% of the market demand for traditional fuel vehicles. It is estimated that by 2030, fuel vehicles will still account for 80% of the mainland's car ownership. In the medium and long term, traditional fuel vehicles still have certain market development prospects. Yao Chunde said that in the future, the market share of traditional fuel vehicles will be gradually squeezed by new energy vehicles, and its market share will gradually decrease.

In fact, although BYD has stopped producing traditional fuel vehicles, its popular DM-i models are still equipped with fuel engines. Even the current models on the market, such as plug-in hybrid, extended range, hydrogen fuel, etc., are inseparable from the fuel engine.

In Yao Chunde's view, the "double carbon target" of traditional car companies does not need to be achieved through full electrification, and can achieve the standard of low fuel consumption and low carbon emission stipulated by the state by improving the thermal efficiency of the fuel engine. For example, the thermal efficiency of the fuel engines developed and used by Geely and BYD has exceeded 40%.

Although fuel engines are not "sentenced to death", capital, markets, and talents tend to automatically shift to industries with higher returns. According to the "Guidelines for the Development of Manufacturing Talents" jointly issued by the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by 2025, the demand for talents in the energy-saving and new energy automobile industry will reach 1.2 million, and the talent gap will reach 1.03 million.

At present, in the automotive industry, professionals in new energy vehicle related technologies have become "fragrant", and the treatment is very eye-catching. According to the information on the official website of BOSS Direct Recruitment, BMS-related positions, the salary of an undergraduate student without any experience ranges from 20k to 40k, and provides 13 to 15 salaries. What's more, companies give incentives to offer company options or stocks.

Like many spirited automotive talents, Li Di, a vehicle major, has just graduated and received offers from many companies such as Weilai, FAW, and BYD. After the final weigh-up, he chose Weilai. "Weilai is a new car-making force, although it has not been established for a long time, but the members of the team are excellent. When I talk to them, I feel like they're giving employees a lot of room to explore. "Because of the recent epidemic in Shanghai, Li Di has not been able to report to the company. But like many new employees, Li Di is full of expectations for new jobs and even the future of new energy vehicles.

And Xiao Li, are they continuing to serve as the "light chaser" of fuel vehicles, or are they turning to the "light chaser" of new energy vehicles? "The shadow sleepwalks after the light", this is just a natural phenomenon, I believe that time can give the answer. (At the request of the interviewees, the characters in the text, An Lin, Jiang Man, Xiang Yu, and Li Di, are pseudonyms)

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