In recent years, TSMC has been leading the chip manufacturing process forward, that is, TSMC has surpassed Intel in chip manufacturing technology, and Intel has finally put down the shelf and began to give chips to TSMC to manufacture, which is really a historical turning point.
However, Huawei's experience tells us how the United States can allow itself to be lagging behind in the field of technology, so we see a later scene, the United States asked TSMC to hand over relevant trade secret documents, and finally TSMC submitted the file on November 5, 2021.
In fact, U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo even said: "There are other tools in our toolbox that can force manufacturers to provide data."
But the pace of the United States did not stop, it began to ask TSMC to the United States to establish a factory, according to Taiwan media reports, TSMC even to build 4 to 5 fabs in the local area.
Recently, TSMC's 91-year-old founder Zhang Zhongmou personally went to the United States, saying that the cost of building a chip factory in the United States is prohibitive, and increasing chip production in the United States is expensive, wasteful and futile.
In order to prove his point, Zhang Zhongmou also took TSMC's fab that has operated in Oregon for 25 years as an example, pointing out that the fab, TSMC has worked hard for 25 years without much cost reduction, we are too naïve.
Obviously, Zhang Zhongmou is expressing that it is not realistic to build a chip factory in the United States, and the implication is that he does not want to build a factory in the United States, and this is the second time Zhang Zhongmou has spoken out, which is accused of Zhang Zhongmou going to the United States to "intercede" and request that TSMC not build a factory in the United States.
Coincidentally, shortly after Zhang Zhongmou's voice, Lu Xingzhi, a well-known semiconductor industry analyst, said that this was Zhang Zhongmou's request to let TSMC have a step down from building a factory in the United States.
In fact, through the analysis of TSMC's customers, we can see that TSMC's construction of advanced technology fabs in the United States is indeed quite unfavorable to TSMC.
Because TSMC Liu Deyin has said before that building a factory in the United States is "the political drive of American customers", that is, once TSMC's advanced fabs in the United States begin mass production, then TSMC's American customers will use the plant's production capacity to produce chips.
As mentioned above, TSMC's U.S. factories are costly and profitable, while TSMC's U.S. customers account for nearly 70% of TSMC's revenue.
However, now, the United States does not seem to have made concessions in the construction of TSMC's U.S. factory, so building a factory in the United States has become almost a foregone conclusion.
In addition, intel in the United States is also actively building more advanced fabs, the key point is that Intel has subsidies given by the United States, so it will have more advantages in competition with TSMC.
In other words, even if TSMC maintains the existing customer order volume, its profit will be greatly reduced because of its high cost.
There is no guarantee of certain profits, which will affect TSMC's technology research and development and capacity expansion.
In view of this, some foreign media said that TSMC is paying for the loss of Huawei and will need Huawei again.
From the perspective of the revenue that can also be used for Huawei in the foreground, Huawei is the second largest customer of TSMC stable, accounting for about 20% of revenue, and later once surpassed Apple to become the largest customer of TSMC, accounting for nearly 30% of revenue.
Therefore, if huawei orders are re-obtained, then TSMC will retain its fundamentals.
However, we also seem to see that TSMC and Huawei maintain a certain tacit understanding, because just some time ago, TSMC just used advanced packaging technology to produce M1 Ultra for Apple, and Huawei recently released the use of chip stacking technology, but also to develop multi-chip technology, in fact, it is also an advanced packaging technology.
In terms of advanced packaging technology, TSMC is completely self-developed, and the American factories under construction, TSMC have not brought this technology, and Shanghai Microelectronics just happens to be mass-produced this year's advanced packaging lithography machine, which is at the international leading level.
So overall, TSMC seems to be looking for ways to reproduce chips for Huawei.
In short, TSMC's future situation is not optimistic at present, and it will be crucial to regain Huawei's orders, we will wait and see.