Sales of new energy heavy trucks rose sharply against the market! In addition to the policy drive, this reason cannot be ignored

The full text totals 2791 words to read for about 5 minutes

Since the beginning of the year, the domestic truck market has not stopped the decline. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the truck market, which saw a year-on-year decline in sales of 8.5% last year, remained sluggish in the first two months of this year, with production and sales falling by more than 20% year-on-year.

However, new energy trucks, especially in the new energy heavy truck market, have performed "out of class". In the first two months of this year, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks were 3223 units, an increase of 1076.3% year-on-year. Among them, electric heavy trucks account for more than 90%, which is the absolute main force of growth.

In the current case of the overall performance of the truck market, why can the sales data of new energy heavy trucks go against the market? How long can this "bull market" from last year to the present continue?

Policy-driven is the main factor

This year's "opening red" of new energy heavy truck sales is a continuation of last year's hot market.

In the whole year of 2021, the sales volume of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China exceeded 10,000 for the first time, an increase of nearly 3 times year-on-year, far exceeding industry expectations. "In 2021, we sold more than 1,000 new energy heavy-duty trucks, and more than 400 in the first three months of this year." On April 7, the head of the heavy truck department of a domestic main engine factory revealed in an interview with China Logistics and Procurement magazine.

In the first two months of this year, the sales volume of new energy heavy-duty trucks rose sharply year-on-year, which was related to the low sales base from January to February last year - sales were less than 400 units. However, the industry generally believes that the new energy heavy truck market has entered the fast lane, which is inseparable from the empowerment of national and local support policies.

A few days ago, Zheng Wenping, president of the Jiangxi Gao'an Second-hand Commercial Vehicle Circulation Association, pointed out to the reporter of China Logistics and Procurement magazine that "this has a lot to do with the national 'double carbon' strategy and a series of environmental protection-related policies." ”

In March last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on the Confirmation of China VI Emission Products for Heavy-duty Diesel Vehicles". The Notice clearly requires that from July 1, 2021, all enterprises will stop producing and selling heavy-duty diesel vehicle products that do not meet the requirements of China VI standards. This means that emissions have become an important limiting indicator for the production of heavy trucks. In September 2021, the monthly sales of new energy heavy trucks exceeded 1,100 vehicles, entering the "thousand-vehicle class" for the first time. Before the first half of 2021, the monthly sales of new energy heavy trucks in the whole market exceeded 500 units, only in June 2019.

"Driven by the 'double carbon' goal, some large and medium-sized cities and energy-based industrial cities have gradually increased the promotion and application of new energy heavy trucks." Zheng Wenping told China Logistics and Procurement magazine reporter, "Many cities support the application of new energy heavy trucks in ports, slag, mines and other fields. ”

The "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Use of Pure Electric Concrete Transport Vehicles in Zhengzhou City" requires that from August 1, 2021, all new concrete transport vehicles in Zhengzhou Will be pure electric vehicles. At the end of March this year, Chengdu issued a policy to support the development of new energy sanitation vehicles, dump trucks (muck trucks), and mixer trucks. On March 31, Hainan issued a policy, with a maximum subsidy of 4 million yuan for heavy truck replacement projects, and vigorously supported the development of heavy trucks for power exchange.

Overall, the release and implementation of the above series of policies is the main reason for the increase in sales of new energy heavy trucks.

Landing scenes are becoming more and more abundant

Some analysts have proposed that the reason why the new energy heavy-duty truck market has achieved a "good start", a factor that cannot be ignored is that commercial OEMs will sign 25,000 new energy heavy-duty truck orders in 2021, of which about 15,000 have not been delivered at the terminal. The gradual release of this part of the demand will further promote the sales of new energy heavy trucks this year.

However, the above-mentioned OEMs do not agree with this view. In his view, the large backlog of orders generated last year should be related to the preparation method and strategy of the main engine factory. "At present, the end users of new energy heavy trucks are mainly enterprise users. The sales scale of new energy heavy trucks ultimately depends on the business volume of end users and whether they can support the procurement decisions of new energy heavy trucks. ”

An important reason for supporting end enterprise users to increase the purchase of new energy heavy trucks may lie in the continuous expansion of new energy heavy truck landing scenarios.

"According to the landing scene, heavy trucks can be divided into tractors, dump trucks, special vehicles and trucks. Among them, tractors are mainly used in express transportation, general cargo flow, bulk cargo transportation and other fields, with the largest application space; dump trucks are mainly used for loading and unloading transportation of earth, sand and gravel, bulk materials; special vehicles refer to special trucks with their own, such as mixing, urban sanitation vehicles, etc., and the application field is relatively small. Zheng Wenping pointed out, "Last year, especially since the second half of last year, the sales volume of new energy tractors in these types of new energy heavy trucks has risen rapidly." Data show that in the whole year of 2021, the sales volume of new energy tractors will account for half of the country. ”

In addition to environmental protection factors, the cost advantages of the whole life cycle of new energy heavy trucks and the gradual maturity of the power exchange mode have broadened their landing scenarios.

The cost advantage of the whole life cycle of new energy heavy trucks mainly reflects the two aspects of maintenance and energy consumption. "Compared with fuel heavy trucks, the number of vulnerable and consumable parts of new energy heavy trucks is small, which can reduce the maintenance cost of users." The advantages in terms of energy consumption are mainly reflected in the fact that the electricity consumption expenditure is significantly lower than the cost of oil. ”

A main engine factory once used a rechargeable pure electric tractor product to calculate an account for the user: the model consumes about 2.6 degrees of electricity per kilometer, the industrial electricity price is 0.5 yuan / kWh, and in the case of full load, the operating cost per kilometer is only about 1.3 yuan. Under the same circumstances, the fuel consumption of 100 kilometers of fuel heavy trucks is 45 liters, and the cost per kilometer is about 3 yuan.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, said in a recent interview with the media that the power exchange model, as a technical route to quickly improve charging speed and user experience, has been supported by policies and favored by enterprises in recent years, and the business model has also matured, and has gradually landed in various scenarios such as manufacturing plants, industrial parks, terminals, and mines. The national standard of "Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Replacement" officially implemented in November last year solves the urgent problem that there is no standard for the power exchange mode, which is conducive to the further promotion and application of new energy heavy trucks.

Can the "bull market" be sustained?

As mentioned earlier, the current hot market of new energy heavy trucks is largely the market demand brought about by the continuous stimulation of policies. Zheng Wenping pointed out that this year is the last year of the implementation of the new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy, coupled with the gradual increase in the implementation of the "double carbon" goal in various places, which will inevitably promote the increase in sales of new energy heavy trucks.

But the question is how long can the "bull market" of new energy heavy trucks last without the blessing of the policy?

In the application scenarios of short-term transportation such as coal, sand and gravel, container terminals, steel mills and so on, new energy heavy trucks have excellent fuel economy and do have certain advantages. However, long-distance trunk transportation is still the main battlefield of traditional fuel heavy trucks. The short board of the short mileage of a single charge/swap makes it difficult for new energy heavy trucks to replace fuel heavy trucks in the field of trunk line transportation.

On the one hand, the supporting infrastructure such as charging/replacing is seriously insufficient, which will affect the promotion and application of the new energy heavy truck market. If the new energy heavy truck chooses the charging path, the high-power fast charging time is generally about 2 hours, the efficiency is too low, which itself runs counter to the original intention of logistics and transportation to be efficient; if you choose to change the power, the single power exchange mileage is 150 ~ 200 kilometers, and when encountering special circumstances, the energy replenishment will be very embarrassing.

On the other hand, the new energy heavy truck has a large self-weight, and the cargo carrying capacity is not as good as that of the fuel heavy truck. Rechargeable heavy trucks weigh 2 to 3 tons more than fuel heavy trucks. In the context of deteriorating freight rates, this disadvantage will be further magnified.

One thing that is easy to overlook is the service life of various new energy vehicles, including heavy trucks, and the retention rate of used cars. Zheng Wenping said, "The statutory scrapping period of fuel heavy trucks is 15 years, while the general service life of charged new energy heavy trucks is 5 to 6 years, and charging heavy trucks are almost unsought for in the second-hand car market." ”

With the gradual maturity of power exchange technology and business model, the problems of low service life, long charging time and high one-time purchase cost of electric heavy trucks can be solved to a certain extent. In terms of cost, the replacement of heavy trucks relies on the business model of separation of vehicles and electricity, which reduces the cost of electric heavy trucks to a certain extent. End customers only need to pay a one-time fee for the car body without batteries, and the purchase price is only about 50,000 yuan more expensive than that of traditional fuel vehicles, while the price of rechargeable heavy trucks is often one million yuan.

The "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" released in November 2021 lists the strengthening of infrastructure construction such as charging and replacing as one of the key directions for the development of the new energy automobile industry in the next 15 years. Despite policy support, the construction and layout of the replacement power station, an important supporting infrastructure for power exchange heavy trucks, also faces problems such as difficult planning and construction, and operational difficulties, which will hinder the process of large-scale application of heavy truck replacement. (This article was published in China Logistics and Procurement Magazine, No. 8, 2022)

Near-term highlights

Editor of this issue: Liu Xiaopeng