Written by | Li Yimeng, Eldon Ring, Hollow Knight
Edit | Routing Agency
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"Don't walk gently into that good night."
—Dylan Thomas
"The more you can look back, the more likely you are to look to the future."
—Winston Leonard Spencer Churchill
She smiled as she said this, but it was a Chinese smile, and it seemed to be a mask that hid deeper emotions.
Those smiles can hide a lot of emotions —embarrassment, anger, sadness.
When people smile like this, it is as if an emotion is being tightly twisted and diverted. ”
In the nonfiction work River City, this passage was used by the American writer Peter Hessler to describe the smile of Anne, a Chinese student.
For more than a month, such smiles have often appeared around us.
Since January 2020, the profound impact of the novel coronavirus on public life has unknowingly lasted for nearly 28 months.
More than two years may be just a flash for most people, but for a few people who have experienced major turns and great misfortunes in the meantime, it is as long as a lifetime.
On April 14, the Shanghai Hongkou District Health Commission reported that Comrade Qian Wenxiong, a cadre of the committee, died on the afternoon of April 12. Qian Wenxiong, 55, did not wait for the end of the epidemic.
For this generation of young people born in the new century, going out without a mask will even become a distant and unfamiliar way of life. Childhood memories may accompany them throughout their lives.
Just as these specific and subtle individuals have encountered and experienced, for the whole world, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is also like a layer of fog that covers it, making it difficult to see the true face and clear expression of this era.
"The more you can go back in time," as Winston Churchill put it, "the more likely you are to look to the future."
Similarly, what are the hardships experienced in the automotive manufacturing industry, which is struggling to survive the dark night of the COVID-19 pandemic? What efforts have been made? And what kind of expression is it showing?
From 2020 to 2022, from 2022 to 2024, when we look back at the past from today, we have never looked back at today, hoping to use a perspective and record that constantly walks into the past and traces back to history, to help ourselves read the true expressions that hide many complex emotions, and to see the clues to the long future that have long been hidden in the depths of history.
2020: Go back to the factory
"Today, going to work, working, having lunches, meetings, taking a bus to and from home and work...
Images that were so familiar in the past look precious today.
I never imagined that these seemingly ordinary images in the past would one day feel so hard-won.
Even under the Dongfeng Bridge, the traffic jam begins to make me feel very close. ”
On April 6, 2020, a grassroots employee of Dongfeng Motor Group wrote in his anti-epidemic diary.
That was the first day he returned to work in Wuhan after experiencing a "lockdown" due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Two days later, Wuhan, one of the important towns of China's automobile industry, completely lifted the control of the passage from Han.
The 76-day "lockdown" has become history, which has also relieved the automobile industry in Hubei and even China.
Hubei, where Wuhan is located, is one of the four major automobile industrial bases in China. It has 10 vehicle manufacturing companies including Dongfeng DPCA, Dongfeng Honda and Dongfeng Passenger Vehicles, as well as more than 1,000 parts manufacturing companies. Among them, there are many important parts suppliers such as Valeo, Bosch, and Websto.
In 2019, before the outbreak of the epidemic, the annual production of automobiles in Hubei Province reached 2.24 million units, accounting for 8.8% of China's total automobile production capacity in that year.
During the Wuhan closure, all these factories stopped all production activities.
The same situation has occurred in Cities around Wuhan, such as Shiyan and Xiangyang, where most of the automobile production capacity of Hubei Province except Wuhan is concentrated.
Shiyan on the eve of unsealing
On the other hand, in addition to local automobile manufacturing enterprises in Hubei, foreign companies such as SAIC-GM also have production capacity distribution in the province.
In the broader space, Wuhan is only the epitome of a global dilemma.
"Among the top ten provinces in terms of automobile production in 2019, Hubei, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces are the key areas of the epidemic, totaling more than 86% of the number of confirmed cases, and these three provinces are also important auto industry clusters in the country, with automobile production accounting for about 1/4 of the national output, and the epidemic has a greater impact on automobile production." The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council of China disclosed it on its official website.
Strong demands for factories to resume work and production spread throughout China at that time. It has even spawned some rare phenomena that would otherwise be unlikely to occur in the Chinese business community.
For example, in early February 2020, Tianjin's Wuqing District received a letter from Mercedes-Benz in Beijing.
In the letter, the joint venture automaker earnestly asked regulators to approve the resumption of production by 19 auto parts companies in its jurisdiction from mid-February.
Otherwise, Beijing Benz believes that its "daily losses will reach 400 million yuan, bringing huge losses to the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei."
For example, Huida Machinery, located in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, also made a request for help from the government department.
Due to the company's inability to resume normal production due to the closure of the epidemic, it was difficult to deliver 10,000 steering cases to PSA Group's African plant on time.
According to the previous contract signed by the two parties, the Chinese company needs to pay 2.4 million yuan in liquidated damages to PSA, and may even bear the loss of 30 million yuan caused by the shutdown of the customer's factory.
After receiving the request for help, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade issued a force majeure certificate to Huida Machinery.
Since then, more companies have received similar certificates and have been recognized by businesses, governments, trade associations and customs officials in more than 200 places around the world.
In 2020, CCPIT issued force majeure certificates to a large number of enterprises
Although the government has tried its best to help coordinate the problems encountered by automobile manufacturers, the losses caused by such force majeure have been effectively caused.
From January to February 2020, China's automobile production was only 2.048 million units, down 45.8% year-on-year, and the cumulative production was 2.42 million units less than the same period in 2019, equivalent to 9%-10% of the annual output.
Throughout the first quarter of 2020, the capacity utilization rate of China's automobile manufacturing industry was only 56%, down 21.4% year-on-year.
Therefore, when Chinese auto workers, represented by Wuhan workers, have returned to the factory production line one after another, the pressure on China's automotive industry has been greatly alleviated.
This change for the better is also reflected in the subsequent operation of the automobile industry.
By the end of 2020, China's automobile production and sales reached 25.225 million units and 25.311 million units, respectively, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2% and 1.9%, respectively. And in terms of growth rate, it exceeded that of 2018 and 2019, which were not affected by the epidemic.
Especially after entering the second quarter of 2020, the previously suppressed automotive consumer demand was released in a concentrated manner.
According to the 2020 report of the China Automobile Association, since April of that year, China's new car sales have rapidly ended year-on-year decline and shown a stable growth trend, of which the monthly sales volume from May to November increased by more than 10% year-on-year.
Source: CAAM "2020 China Automotive Industry Economic Operation Report"
The profitability of automakers has also gradually recovered in the process. By August 2020, the cumulative profit of China's automobile manufacturing industry has reached a positive growth level.
Source: CAAM "2020 China Automotive Industry Economic Operation Report"
However, when Dongfeng Motor's employees fell to the last end in their anti-epidemic diaries, American automakers more than 10,000 kilometers away were suffering from anxiety.
Since the beginning of 2020, the "Detroit Big Three", including Ford, General Motors and FCA, have all seen auto workers die of COVID-19.
They have been shutting down all production facilities since mid-March. The measure was then extended throughout the United States, and all U.S. automakers, including Tesla, joined the shutdown.
In Europe, the number of factories suspended by major automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Toyota Motor, Renault and PSA Group exceeded 90.
That year, "going back to the factory" became the most annoying knot for employees in the global auto manufacturing industry.
"The practice of shutting down the gigafactory is similar to fascism." In May 2020, Elon Musk, the intolerable Tesla CEO, said via personal social media.
At the same time, he spelled out the words "Liberate America Immediately" in all capital letters to vent his dissatisfaction.
At the time, the electric car company was fighting Alameda county on the U.S. Gulf coast over the restart of the Fremont plant.
The tweet came a week after the factory reopened to workers without the county's approval. Alameda County officials said the act was suspected of violating the law, which could result in Tesla's relevant responsible persons being fined, imprisoned, or both.
In this regard, Musk said, "If you want to arrest me, arrest me alone." He also threatened to move the gigafactory from California to Texas or Nevada.
Behind Musk's fierce remarks reflected the situation that automakers faced with "no hope of resuming work" at that time, and the resulting bipolar mood.
Obviously, emotions alone do not alleviate actual situations and problems.
Until June 2020, the factories of European automakers have gradually resumed normal production order; the restart of us factories has not been until September of that year. Non-frontline workers will not be able to completely end their home desk status and return to the office until June 2021.
"It's great to see my colleague again. For me, it's a good thing to be able to get back to work and secure income. On the day he returned to the Flins factory, Renard, a Renault worker, said.
2022: Parts? On the way
However, after two years, the problem of auto workers trying to ensure their income is still full of uncertainty. The global auto manufacturing industry is also once again tested by the rebound of the new crown epidemic.
In fact, in the past 28 months, the novel coronavirus has never really left the public eye.
From B.1.1.207, to Delta, to Aumechjong, it's just constantly changing more stealthy, more contagious ways of connecting with the world. The destructive power of public life has not diminished in any way.
Since 5:00 a.m. on March 28 this year, Shanghai's original gridded and precise epidemic prevention and control strategy has been replaced by a series of measures such as increasingly concentrated regional stationary, nucleic acid screening, and staying at home. With the exception of a small number of epidemic prevention and security personnel, the vast majority of residents have to limit their range of activities to their homes.
Before March 28, Shanghai adopted gridded and precise prevention and control
Chen Xin (pseudonym) is also among those whose movement is restricted.
Chen Xin, a 47-year-old who lives in Baoshan, has not been out of the house for nearly two weeks since April 1. For him, who spends most of his work on the road, it's the first time since he graduated from school.
Chen Xin is engaged in the logistics and transportation industry, and usually manages a small private transport fleet consisting of two light trucks and one heavy truck.
In the days when there was no epidemic, Chen Xin and his working partners worked together to transport steel for customers. These steel pipes and steel plates are either sent to construction sites or to various manufacturing facilities. Among them, there are also automobile factories.
"I can't get a pass, and I've been able to stop delivering lately." Chen Xin said.
The pass he said refers to the temporary pass issued by the Shanghai municipal industry authorities or the district governments to the identified epidemic prevention and security personnel, allowing the latter to drive vehicles and temporarily pass during the period of regional closure.
According to the regulations, such passes are "mainly used for epidemic prevention and control, emergency medical treatment, material support, urban operation, personnel transfer, emergency disposal and other situations.".
Since the consignee is not within the scope of application of the above provisions, Chen Xin and his team members cannot obtain the epidemic prevention and security pass, and can only wait at home for the unsealing.
For more than ten days, Chen Xin has gradually grown tired of watching his colleagues' speculations about the sealing policy and the trend of the epidemic in the WeChat group every day.
"I don't want to try to change things I can't change." He said.
Although the rhetoric is obscure, it can be heard that the inability to change that Chen Xin refers to refers to the interruption and change brought by local epidemic prevention policies to daily life and work.
Since Sun Chunlan, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, conducted research and guidance on the prevention and control of the epidemic in Shanghai from April 10 to 11, the "dynamic clearance" policy will continue to be the general policy of this round of epidemic prevention and control.
At a press conference on the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council held on Tuesday (April 12), the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention reiterated that "'dynamic zero clearance' is in line with the mainland's reality and is the best choice for the current fight against the epidemic", and its purpose is to "do everything possible to protect the health and life safety of the people, especially the elderly and infants and young children who are vulnerable to the virus.".
For this official insistence, Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, once explained to the media that even if a new crown vaccine is available, even if the global mortality rate of new crown pneumonia is only 2%, "it is still too high for China, and the cost of relaxing epidemic prevention measures too quickly is too high."
The rebound of the current outbreak in Shanghai, especially the active spread of the Omiljun strain, largely confirms this concern.
On April 4, Shanghai, with a permanent population of more than 25 million, basically completed nucleic acid testing covering all people in one day.
According to a report by CBN on April 11, the cumulative number of infections in Shanghai has exceeded 200,000 since the current round of the epidemic. In this process, it took more than 1 month from the outbreak to the number of infected people exceeding 100,000, and from 100,000 to 200,000, it took less than 5 days.
Although the "zero-zero" strategy in some countries is not optimistic, Christopher Murray, an expert at the Institute of Health Indicators and Evaluation at the University of Washington in the United States, acknowledged in an article analyzing the characteristics of the Omiljung variant of the new crown pneumonia virus that such strategies "have bought very valuable time to increase vaccination rates and better understand the impact of variants on immunocompromised people."
By restricting travel, cutting off the chain of virus transmission and minimizing the risk of epidemic transmission, it may still be the most rational control option that can be seen so far.
However, such restrictions undoubtedly have a range of collateral effects. The significant loss of logistics efficiency is among them.
JD.com, which recently announced the dispatch of 2,000 courier brothers to Shanghai, has received a lot of criticism since Monday (April 11).
"After JD.com made a commitment to the delivery date, it unilaterally delayed the delivery date in the background, resulting in us not knowing when we would actually deliver." An angry consumer criticized.
In the face of a large number of similar complaints and even refund requirements, JD.com has no choice.
The surging news quoted informed sources on the 12th as saying that Shanghai and Kunshan have more than 100 JD Logistics warehouses that can support the materials needed for Shanghai's fight against the epidemic, but only some of them are currently open for operation.
More importantly, the obstruction of intercity traffic poses an obstacle to the cross-regional transportation of materials.
"For example, although there is a large warehouse in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, the road pass from Kunshan to Shanghai is very tight, and the number of goods that can be transported into Shanghai is actually limited." In terms of manpower, the number of couriers who can deliver goods out of the community is currently less than 1/3 of the usual. People familiar with the matter told the media.
The embarrassment faced by JD.com also happens to be the "crux" that currently makes automakers most anxious.
Kunshan is one of the most important hinterlands of the automobile industry in East China and even China. The area is adjacent to SAIC's Anting plant, only 20 kilometers in a straight line, and it takes only half an hour by car.
Because of this, in Kunshan, major parts suppliers have established supporting production facilities around Shanghai-based automakers such as SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC Passenger Cars, Tesla, etc.
With the support of the auto parts industry, Kunshan achieved a regional GDP of 474.806 billion yuan in 2021, ranking first among the top ten counties in China's GDP for 11 consecutive years.
At present, however, the sharp reduction in the efficiency of inter-city logistics has triggered a serious chain reaction in the automobile manufacturing industry downstream.
For today's automakers, parts seem to be on the road forever.
Also due to the problem of transportation efficiency, the distance between automobile manufacturing companies and the port area also makes it difficult for them to try to obtain parts from outside the country.
In terms of distance, it is only 80 kilometers from Suzhou (Kunshan belongs to Suzhou) to Waigaoqiao Port Area; to the more distant Yangshan Deep Water Port, 180 kilometers.
However, when an imported auto parts crossed the ocean from the port of Hamburg and the port of Long Beach, after thousands of nautical miles, it was difficult to cross the last hundred kilometers and reach the final destination. There, parts suppliers such as Bosch, Aptiv, BorgWarner, Denso, ZF, and Yanfeng Visteon are anxiously awaiting the deployment of these parts to workers on the production line.
In addition to the above-mentioned Tier 1 suppliers who can provide complete solutions to car companies, more and smaller Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers are also experiencing the same waiting.
They are usually responsible for the production of chips, electronic components, seats, meters, tires, wiring harnesses, plastic parts, plastic parts, metal parts, glass and other upstream products – although the value of their goods can not be compared with the whole vehicle, but they are an indispensable part of the latter.
In an article published in September 2015, the Website of the State Council noted that each job in China's automotive industry can drive 7.5 jobs in parts and components subsidiary industries.
This sentence can also be understood to mean that a job in the automobile manufacturing industry will be associated with 7.5 parts ancillary industries.
This correlation can be positive or inverse – when the operations of parts-affiliated industries are threatened with downtime, the automotive industry will naturally be impacted.
"The large number and layering of parts in the automotive industry further magnifies supply chain risk." Huatai Securities said in a report released during the first outbreak in February 2020.
Up to now, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM and Tesla have temporarily taken production reduction or suspension measures due to parts supply problems.
For similar reasons, in the other major automobile production bases most affected by this round of the epidemic - Jilin, Changchun and Guangzhou, faw-Volkswagen, FAW Toyota, and Nio have all disrupted the production rhythm.
As the head of China's "new car-making force", WEI Auto clearly explained the reasons for the suspension of production in a statement on Saturday (April 9).
Affected by this, WEILAI's vehicle production has been suspended. Due to the above reasons, many users' vehicles will be delayed in the near future.
"In fact, in mid-March, some parts of Weilai were out of supply, relying on some parts inventory to barely support until last week (before the Qingming Dynasty)." Li Bin, founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai, said. At the same time, he expressed concern about the possible rise in the supply price of raw materials in the future.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Association of Passenger Vehicles, said on April 11 that the current epidemic is expected to cause direct losses of about 15%-20% to the output of the automotive industry, and may also have a radiative impact on the national automotive industry chain. This will also strengthen the uncertainty of automobile production and sales in April.
Parts and components are difficult to access to the factory from the port and vice versa.
According to the notice issued by the Shanghai Road Transport Administration, from March 29, container vehicles involved in the inbound transportation of Shanghai Port are required to hold an electronic epidemic prevention permit issued by SIPG. The condition for obtaining the pass is that the container truck driver has both a negative 48-hour nucleic acid test certificate and a negative antigen test certificate within 24 hours.
Although SIPG recently said that the production and operation of the shanghai port area terminal are as usual, and there is no congestion for container ships, there are currently a number of sealing and control areas in Shanghai. The more critical challenge is that the current highway system in Shanghai is subject to different degrees of control, and the passage of people and vehicles is affected. At the same time, the Yangtze River Delta region has tightened road control measures, which have reduced the efficiency of truck collection transportation.
Specifically, it is difficult for foreign vehicles to enter Shanghai, and Shanghai vehicles cannot go out.
For example, since March 28, high-speed exports in jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces have upgraded their vehicle control measures in Shanghai. Tongling, Zhuji, Zhenjiang, Danyang and other places directly persuaded to return, and Xianju directly isolated the drivers from Shanghai after the highway.
This also confirms the judgment of Jared Ward, chief East Asia business development officer of Nikko Logistics Shanghai Office, a large Japanese supply chain management company.
The current problem, he said, "is not the boats, but the fact that there are no trucks, so the cargo can't come."
At present, the Shanghai Port Area maintains 24-hour operation, and the throughput is at a high level
Trucks may come with good news.
Also put on the "shackles" by the epidemic, Jiangsu, a neighboring province of Shanghai, has made efforts and attempts to weaken the secondary impact of the epidemic on cross-regional logistics and actively open up logistics blockages, which can be regarded as a reference and a positive signal.
According to the requirements of the latest notice of the General Office of the Jiangsu Provincial Government, before 24:00 on April 13, the highway intersections that are currently closed will be appropriately adjusted to restore 40% of them, that is, the normal passage of 52 intersections.
This undoubtedly adds a glimmer of hope to the early resumption of parts supply by automakers in the Yangtze River Delta region.
2024: "Core famine", still?
When the time comes to 2024, if you want to use a word to review the previous 4 years, through the dark night of the epidemic of the automotive industry a constant main line, then, it is likely to be - chip famine.
For a new car in the new fourth stage, the semiconductor chip is an extremely important key component. They are widely used in almost everything from in-vehicle infotainment systems and intelligent driver assistance systems to basic components such as power steering and brakes.
Depending on the vehicle and its configuration, a new car may cover hundreds of semiconductor chips.
Perhaps it is the existence of the basic hardware and strategic level of chips that has made chip supply one of the highest priority tasks on the desks of major automotive group helmsmen.
Just in the first quarter of 2022, entrepreneurs have their own prejudgments and basis for this trend of "chip famine" that has spread around the world and lasted for a long time.
BMW Chairman Oliver Zipse said at the recent 2021 annual earnings conference in March that the auto manufacturing industry is still at the peak of chip shortages.
"I expect to start seeing this improve in the next year (2023) at the latest, but we still have to face a fundamental shortage in 2023." He said.
The company expects this to run through the full year of 2022. BMW Group initially thought chip supply would return to normal in the second half of 2022, but now they have adjusted that expectation.
Volkswagen Group Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz said that the shortage of semiconductor chips is expected to recover as soon as 2024.
Last year, a shortage of chips caused the capacity of the group's core factory in Wolfsburg, where it is headquartered, to its lowest level since 1958.
"Chip shortages are likely to begin to ease by the end of 2022, with chip production returning to 2019 levels in 2023. But this is still not enough to meet the growing demand for chips in the automotive industry. He said.
Rome was not built in a day.
Obviously, no matter whether the time point predicted by entrepreneurs is 2023 or 2024, the "chip shortage" will always be accompanied by the difficulty of the automotive industry under the epidemic, making the top leaders of car companies anxious and even insomnia.
In fact, as early as the beginning of 2021, the shortage of semiconductor chip supply caused a heavy blow to the global auto manufacturing industry.
In January 2021, Volkswagen, Audi, Ford, Toyota, Honda and other automakers announced that they would implement production cuts due to the lack of chips or suspend production of new cars at several plants.
In 2021, the Volkswagen ID.3 basic version was discontinued due to chip shortages
Within some companies, the shutdown caused by the chip shortage has also caused widespread unease among workers.
"The company has informed us that starting next week, they want the B and C shift workers to be suspended for a week, and that this suspension process is likely to be extended by another few weeks. It all depends on how long the vendor has to resolve the issue. Coby Millender, president of the UAW Local 551, wrote at the time in a letter sent to Workers at Ford Motor's Chicago plant.
Subsequently, this kind of case, which occurred within some automakers, spread across the industry – in just two months, the shortage of chip supply became a common problem for global automakers.
As of the beginning of March 2021, in addition to the above five companies, Daimler, Nissan Motor, Stellantis Group, and Renault have also been affected by this "chip famine" to varying degrees.
Perhaps, this can also be seen as the aftermath of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
Looking back at the time, the global outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic led to the closure of their factories by major chipmakers. In this process, the public's consumption target is shifted to technological products such as smartphones, televisions, and game consoles due to the state of not being able to stay at home.
Therefore, when the epidemic situation improved and automobile consumer demand rebounded rapidly, the already scarce chip resources encountered a run between automobile manufacturers and electronic product manufacturers in a short period of time.
However, some automakers with a keen sense of smell have already seen the hint of it.
For example, Tesla, an American electric vehicle manufacturer, and BYD, a Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturer, have formulated corresponding countermeasures in advance. As a result, they are also one of the few automakers that have not significantly lost capacity in the global chip supply shortage in 2021.
Tesla's approach is to redesign microcontroller (MCU-based components, rewrite software code, and replace some microcontroller suppliers.
In addition, they managed to persuade consumers to start accepting "semi-finished" new cars that temporarily eliminated USB ports or wireless chargers.
This series of measures has effectively reduced Tesla's demand for chip supply.
Unlike Tesla's flexible and flattering approach, BYD seems to be taking the preparation work ahead of the curve.
Since 2007, the Shenzhen-based automaker has entered the field of microcontroller research and development through its earlier by-founded BYD Microelectronics.
In addition, BYD has also established its own research capabilities for insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs), thus getting rid of its dependence on international giants such as Infineon.
It is precisely in the company's internal chip research and development, mass production and supply, in 2021, to help BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu in front of the sad face of his peers, said the easy to attract envy and envy of the bold words - "chip supply shortage did not bring trouble to BYD at all."
However, having the courage to be calm and idle like Wang Chuanfu is ultimately one of the few in the industry.
For those industry players who are unprepared and more affected, in Japan, a fire at Renesas Electronics in March 2021 made the problem even more difficult.
In March 2021, a fire broke out at Renesas Electronics' Naka plant
Renesas Electronics occupies about 30% of the global automotive microcontroller chip market, so in addition to endangering the production of japanese brands such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, the fire also lost a considerable part of its production capacity in Europe, The European, American, and Chinese joint ventures such as BMW, Renault, General Motors, SAIC-GM, and SAIC Volkswagen.
Just a month later, the snowstorm in the US chip production area made the already severe chip supply situation worse and more uncertain.
As of April 2021, the list of automakers that have stopped work and reduced production due to chip supply shortages has been repeatedly extended: Porsche, Rolls-Royce, Lamborghini, Maserati, Ferrari, Bentley, MINI, Aston Martin, Jaguar Land Rover, NIO, Volvo, Hyundai and other brands are also among them.
According to consultancy AlixPartners, the shortage of automotive chips in 2021 costs the global automotive industry 7.7 million units of new car production and $210 billion in revenue.
If it had not been for the recurrence of the epidemic and the escalation of the prevention and control situation caused by Omiljung in 2022, things could have developed according to the expected trajectory of automakers. However, the upgrading of sealing and control and logistics interruptions in more key areas of the automobile manufacturing industry, including Shenzhen, Changchun and Shanghai, coupled with a series of chain reactions brought about by the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, have added more variables to the long-lasting "chip famine".
The Conflict between Russia and Ukraine has cut off the supply of raw materials and components such as rare metals and harnesses
The repeated and sustained impact of the epidemic has slowed down the expansion of chip manufacturing plants, which in turn has dragged down the speed of chip delivery.
According to a new research report from Susquehanna, the delivery cycle of chips is being extended from about three months in 2017 to the current 26.6 weeks – equivalent to half a year.
The expansion plans of major semiconductor chip manufacturers such as Intel and TSMC are likely to be difficult to complete on time because upstream equipment suppliers cannot deliver on time.
Key equipment suppliers such as KLA, Lam Research, and ASML also said that the delivery cycle of some machines can reach up to 18 months, and some devices, such as chip substrates, even need to wait 30 months.
As the global lithography giant, ASML expects that the shortage of equipment faced by chipmakers will still be limited for the next two years.
Although these chipmakers have borne billions of dollars in costs for capacity expansion, their production efficiency is still difficult to improve in the short term.
For Chinese automakers, plans to find local solutions are also likely to fail.
Titanium Media recently quoted Song Chunyu, a senior partner at Lenovo Venture Capital, as saying that although the mastery of key technologies of 28nm can help Chinese mainland fabs to achieve localization of more than 97% of automotive electronic chips in the next two years, 7nm and 5nm chips for autonomous driving, CPU, smart cockpit and other fields still need to rely on external.
Song Chunyu said that it will take about 20 years for China to reach 80% of the internal circulation of the semiconductor upstream and downstream industry chain. Among them, the localization of digital chips, including CPUs and GPUs, may take at least 5 years.
Perhaps, in 2024, the automotive industry is still in the situation of "core shortage", as early as 2022, 2020 to write the script.
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