Image source @ Visual China
Wen | Red Food Network
In early 2020, when the epidemic first appeared, a celebrity said, "This year has been the most difficult year in the previous decade, but it may be the easiest year in the next decade.".
At that time, many people did not think so, and this sentence was also regarded as a "paragraph", which triggered the whole network to forward, but the result? Two years have passed, and every few months in between, the outbreak breaks out in regional markets. At present, there is an epidemic counterattack in many cities across the country. Therefore, looking back at this sentence, many people may not take it as a joke anymore!
For the world, COVID-19 is a sudden and unexpected disaster that catches all countries off guard. In the first two years, the whole world has suffered from it, and at the same time it is seeking effective solutions, including researching epidemic prevention measures, developing special drugs, etc., but the results are very small, the virus is round after round of variants, it is invincible, the world is the same enemy and the virus is dead, this stage we can call the "pre-epidemic era".
Starting from the second half of 2021, in response to the epidemic, there has been a clear differentiation in the world, and more and more countries have begun to adopt "herd immunity", at the same time, some countries, including us, are still waiting for the new crown, so as to fork the boundary, and the later stage can be called the "post-epidemic era"!
Today's article, based on this post-epidemic era, based on catering entities, to share some of the industry's specific "small problems", in order to throw bricks and jade, hoping to cause industry colleagues to discuss. Next, I will share my views from five perspectives.
01, the economic layer
From an economic perspective, our current pandemic defense policy means that the fight against the virus will be a long-term process, possibly at least in years, or even longer. The fight against the epidemic is destined to be a protracted battle, not a blitzkrieg.
In the face of such a trend, everyone is faced with the choice of income and expenditure: from the perspective of income, when all walks of life are unstable, everyone's income will become unstable; from the perspective of expenditure, income instability will inevitably lead to everyone controlling expenditure. When it comes to consumption, there are two consequences: reducing the number of unnecessary consumptions, and reducing the frequency of necessary consumption. For the catering industry, this directly means that both passenger flow and revenue will inevitably decrease.
The negative impact of this consumption trend on the economy will be offline and online, physical and e-commerce, retail and wholesale, all industries are in it, and everyone is also wrapped up.
To take a very obvious example, now that we say that catering people are very difficult, someone will jump out and say a lot of industries that are more difficult than catering, such as tourism industry, hotel industry, real estate industry, import and export trade, and even beauty salon industry.
The internal economic situation is not optimistic, in addition, the uncertainty of the international situation has also brought great variables to the entire external economy. These forces are mixed together, which means that the post-epidemic era is full of sorrows!
Recently, we can also see that whether it is government reports or media reports, they are shouting for the real economy, and various localities have also introduced some bailout and support policies, hoping to help the real economy "maintain stability". However, in contrast, non-governmental business exchanges are still relatively depressed and pessimistic, and all kinds of short videos and lectures that sell anxiety are popular, which also makes people panic.
Under such an overall trend, as a catering practitioner, how to face it? Is it possible to be alone? This brings us to the second level of the problem we are talking about today!
02, industry layer
The difficulties brought about by the economic situation are already in front of us, but one thing is very interesting, that is, the catering industry has always stood firm in the face of difficulties.
Whether it is a national market or a regional market, after each epidemic, the fastest recovery is basically catering, and when other industries are still licking their wounds, the catering industry is bustling with people.
Such resilience has also made the following changes in the catering industry in recent years:
Cross-border integration
When the rapid recovery of catering proved its value as a just-needed industry, it attracted cross-border masters from all walks of life, some of them followed the play of catering people, and some tried a completely different way of playing, making the entire catering market become lively.
The first is the capital side, which is characterized by strong financial strength. A large number of capital institutions have entered the catering industry and invested in many catering brands with unhealthy models in a completely irrational way, and even Chinese desserts that are related to catering have benefited from this.
Although many actions are currently a bit thunderous and rainy, the trend of capital cross-border catering will not change. Next, we can see that capital will move closer to catering and throw money at the catering industry more frequently.
The second is the Internet practitioner, which is characterized by proficiency in user thinking. With Lu Zhengyao as a typical representative, the plan will be copied to the catering staple food track by Luckin Coffee's proven store opening model. From the very beginning of the fun noodles to the back of the fun Bayu are all gone, they still did not give up catering, but changed another track (pre-made dishes) to continue to work. Next, Internet people, to be precise, people with Internet thinking, will also go forward to enter the catering industry.
Image source @ Fun Small Face WeChat public account
Again, there are traffic business people, characterized by holding traffic passwords in their hands. Represented by douyin internet celebrity Sange, they pride themselves on being a business elite, with a left hand "business" and a right hand "traffic", trading a powder brand with a very weak foundation, and can also open hundreds of branches across the country in just one year.
Although this is not a great achievement compared with traditional quick recruitment companies, it is strong in the "clear robbery" of franchisees. The traditional quick recruitment company is sneaky and fraudulent, even if it is opened several thousand a year, it is not embarrassed to publicly publicize; and the traffic master looks for franchisees, it is the open flame that directly shouts, although some time ago, this also caused the condemnation of the whole network.
Next, all kinds of "business celebrities" who hold traffic passwords will, as always, look for opportunities in the catering industry and seek to monetize.
Finally, there are supply chain practitioners, characterized by strong back-end supply capabilities. Represented by pot rings, turning the restaurant into a "presentation field" for pre-made dishes is not only the right direction, but also the timing is gradually ripe. Therefore, all kinds of source supply chain players rushed in, bringing the "pre-made dish fever" that began at the end of last year.
Speaking of which, I have to mention the Lu Zhengyao team again. In 2021, they rolled up their pants at the front end (Fun Small Noodles and Fun Bayu) and prepared to do a big job, and when they found that the signs were not right, they immediately turned the head of the car, drove into the prefabricated vegetable track, and created a tongue-tip hero, in less than half a year, they claimed to release more than 6,000 store operation rights, with a "Luckin second" posture.
In recent years, there have been some other cross-border masters who have entered the catering, but compared with the above four categories, they are all small witches in the "small witch seeing the big witch", which is not worth mentioning.
Image source @ Post Office Coffee official public number
All in all, in the post-epidemic era, the competition between catering practitioners may no longer be the PK between the restaurant owner and the restaurant owner, nor the PK between the product and the taste, but more likely to be the PK between the concept, capital, traffic and supply chain. Traditional restaurant owners, are you ready for this?
Polarization
The enthusiastic participation of the above four types of cross-border people is not to open a lobster shop, nor to open a small noodle restaurant, nor to open a fresh supermarket. They are all rushing to scale, so these people will also bring the inevitable consequences of polarization to the catering industry.
First of all, the chain rate of Chinese catering will soar, because categories with large-scale conditions may be targeted by cross-border bigwigs next.
Even if the time is not ripe, they will also go down, in order to be one step ahead, occupy the pit in advance, which is something that the capital side is keen on; even if the store is not profitable, but the number of users brought by scale is fragrant, which is a thing that Internet practitioners are keen on; even if the team is very weak, it can open hundreds of thousands of "quick wins" in a short period of time, which is a thing that commercial traffic celebrities are keen on; even if the front end is indeed immature, it does not prevent everyone from seizing the back-end pit first, which is something that supply chain practitioners are keen on.
It can be seen that the so-called "catering opportunities" that many people see are large-scale opportunities. At present and in the future, the high-end people who cross-border into catering are almost all rushing to scale, and they will comprehensively promote the large-scale process of catering. The consequence of this trend is that the chain rate of catering has increased comprehensively, and according to the standards of other countries, the chaining rate of Chinese catering should exceed 50%, which is an extreme.
The other extreme will happen in categories that cannot be scaled. Although these categories do not have to worry about the masters coming in to grab jobs, the competition at low latitudes will intensify.
That is to say, the competition at high latitudes will be very involuted, and the competition at low latitudes will also be seriously involuted, and the main difference between the two is that the low-latitude competition is mainly to fight for physical strength.
Choosing fresher ingredients, cooking more exquisite taste, operating for a longer time, maintaining more accurate customers, and giving their own acres and acres of land to the management is the biggest investment, to put it bluntly, in a word - to be a good craftsman. This is not bad, referring to the various cities of Japan, there are many exquisite small shops in the past hundred years, and it is still very moist.
In the post-epidemic era, as a catering practitioner, there are only two ways to choose: either to upgrade the dimension, combine with more talents, and form a team to pursue scale; or reduce the dimension, convince yourself to be quiet, and be a craftsman who pursues the ultimate.
Anyone who swings left and right in the middle will become very difficult, because in the squeeze of the two extremes, they may at most have a staged profit opportunity, and it is difficult to achieve sustainable profits!
Talent dilemma
If you agree with the previous polarization trend, then the third trend dilemma of the talent dilemma cannot be avoided.
The current chain rate of Chinese catering is said to have exceeded 10%, but this is only from the perspective of scale, if the "health indicators" are added, sorry, the chain rate of Chinese catering may not even be 5%. This means that China's chain catering will have more than ten times the next growth space (calculated by 50%), which is also the deep reason why the catering industry is so attractive to cross-border bigwigs.
But the question arises: where to find so many food and beverage talents?
Defining catering talent is a matter of benevolence and wisdom, and we narrowed it down and only said one representative, that is, the restaurant manager. On the road of China's restaurant chain, the life gate is not in the funds, not in the users, not in the traffic, not in the supply chain, but in the daily basic management of the store. The millions of restaurants in the market, assuming that half of them will be chain stores in the future, that means that at least a million store managers are needed!
Where are these people?
Why is it that no matter how much money investors throw, the store cannot achieve the expected virtuous circle? Why can't Lu Zhengyao handle the front-end operation? Why were Sango and Rong Shanhe attacked by the whole network? Why has the prepared dish been rolled from red to black, and everyone still has to kill it? Separately, there may be many, many reasons, but the biggest common reason is the lack of front-line management talents in the entire industry!
If you don't realize this root problem, sorry, no matter how much money, how many users, how much traffic, no matter how many prefabricated products, it is useless, no matter how strong the brand is, it is not big. If you don't believe in evil, look at Haidilao, why did you close more than 300 stores at the end of last year? May I ask, What is missing from Haidilao, the number one restaurant in China?
Therefore, in the post-epidemic era, the big trouble in the catering industry is still a talent problem. Of course, the talent is not only the store manager just mentioned, there are many more, such as traffic talents based on business circles, brand-based marketing talents, and chain-based digital talents, each of which is enough to cause headaches and anxieties for catering practitioners.
What to do as a restaurant owner? This brings us to today's third layer of content!
03. Category layer
As far as the catering industry is concerned, the trend is the direction, and the category is the track, so before choosing the category, we must first judge the trend.
Of course, it should be emphasized that this article only represents my personal views, and you who read the article do not necessarily have to agree with the industry trends in this article, and you can completely judge for yourself. After finding the trends you believe in, the next thing to test you is to do simple multiple choice questions.
If you want to take the road of scale, then unswervingly choose a replicable category, such as hot pot, skewers, grilled meat, etc. in heavy catering; yellow braised chicken, spicy hot, beef noodles, etc. in fast food; fried chicken, fried skewers, fried steaks and so on in snacks. These categories, as long as the original "model project" of several stores is completed, it is easy to gain the favor of capital, because it can tell the story of the number of users, a large number of business leaders are willing to commit to blessings, and can also enjoy the compliments from the stars at the end of the supply chain.
If you want to take the road of craftsmanship, it is best to choose a category with a wide target audience but difficult to standardize and copy. These categories consumers like, the big guys can't see it, all you need to do is pay energy and time. Of course, it may also require a little bit of your heartfelt hobby and persistence, because it is destined to only bring you a small wealth and a well-off, but can not bring you a huge amount of wealth. Therefore, before doing it, you must ask yourself, is this really what you want?
When choosing a category, the most feared thing is the "wall-riding faction" that swings left and right: it is not clear whether they are craftsmen and merchants in the end, or people who want to be craftsmen for a while and want to be merchants for a while. Some people treat themselves like craftsmen when they first open a shop, but what happens? A little smoother, I began to think about opening shops everywhere and becoming a businessman; in reverse, originally a businessman who opened a shop everywhere, but when he publicized, he told the story of the craftsman, which was particularly divided.
In the catering industry, there are many such divided people, there is no right or wrong, it is just a lack of thinking and cognitive ability, which is also one of the deep reasons why they can't do a good job of catering. As I said earlier, the pursuit of scale of the businessman and the craftsman of intensive farming are the two extremes of the polarization of catering. You want to occupy both ends, one moment you want this, the other you want that, the benefits of both ends want to fish at the same time, where in the world is there such a good thing?
New Rongji Yellow Fish, Image source @ New Rongji public number
After understanding the above logic, we will look at the hot event in March, that is, The attack on the whole network by Sango and Rong Shanhe will become very interesting: Sango is a businessman, and he does not shy away from presenting himself as a top business thinking to empower Rong Shanhe. In a year's time, Sango made this brand well-known in the industry, the size of the store went to hundreds of stores, from the perspective of taking the road of catering scale, this is the most successful case in the catering industry in recent years, there is no one.
Someone might argue with me, why?
Indeed, taking apart the case of Rong Shanhe, it is not nothing: from the market point of view, mutton powder belongs to a niche category; in terms of taste, the taste of lamb powder is not outstanding in rice noodles; in terms of scale, hundreds of stores are opened a year, and in front of the fast recruitment company is the younger brother; from the team point of view, there is almost no qualified team for the establishment; from the marketing point of view, there is almost no sound except for douyin; from the brand point of view, there is not even a unified store sign...
But all of this together, it's remarkable! Because for any other restaurant, in the case of so many basic problems, it is impossible to achieve such a high brand exposure in such a niche market segment and in such a short period of time. Let's put it this way, in terms of brand exposure and communication alone, many brands may not be able to achieve such an effect even if they spend 100 million.
It is no exaggeration to say that The Shange Trader Rong Shanhe is a very important case and sample on the road to catering scale in the post-epidemic era. Not seeing this is a cognitive problem!
Therefore, those catering practitioners who also want to take the road of scale, don't be busy spitting on Sange and Rong Shanhe, but should calm down and think about the scale of their own brand, what advantages of Rong Shanhe are worth learning from? At the same time, what deficiencies are worthy of your vigilance?
Why do they provoke such outrage?
Consumers complain that rong shan lotus is not delicious, which is understandable. Franchisees complain that joining Rong Shanhe does not make money, which is also understandable. Catering-related service providers complain, but also understand. But the restaurant owner complained about Rong Shanhe, which seemed a little less understanding, how to say this?
If you are also a large-scale catering person, or you have done scale, for what reason do you blame Rong Shanhe? Is it envy and unobtainable mental imbalance? Or is it like Samgo said, just use this thing to rub some traffic, and then do your own scale? No matter which point, it does not make your image higher!
If you are a craftsman who is obsessed with products, then you have no need to pay attention to Sango and Rong Shanhe. Even if rong shanhe opens all over the streets and alleys of the country, it will not be able to cut your leeks, nor will it affect your intensive cultivation to make authentic food. Therefore, the catering people who choose the road of the craftsman do not need to pay attention to the chain brand with only 60 points of taste, but should spend their energy on how to increase their own taste from 90 points to 95 points, even if it is increased to 91 points, which is more valuable.
If you're a "wall-riding pie" in dining, it's even more interesting. You take the standard of the craftsman to say that the taste of the lotus is not good enough, and then turn around, and then take the standard of the merchant to say that they are not standard in all aspects. May I ask, you have so much time to care about Rong Shanhe, why don't you care about your own restaurant? So concerned about Brother Sam and Pang Jiao, why don't you care who you are?
I stress once again that in the post-epidemic era, the most dangerous catering people are the "wall-riding faction" that swings left and right. They don't know what they really want, so they can't ask inward, but they ask outward all the time: to see what others are doing, and then waste their time pointing at others. Good learning will not, poor is not far away, this kind of talent is the biggest leek in the catering industry! They may not be a certain brand of leeks, but they are the big leeks of the industry!
In March, many friends asked me to say something to Rong Shanhe, but I didn't say it at the time, but now I'm all here. I don't know Brother Sam, I don't know Pang Jiao, Rong Shanhe is a case of concern for me, so I didn't spend too much time on it, and my point of view does not exist to justify them, but just a kind reminder: as a catering person, we must put our energy on ourselves, seek inward, and find out which road we choose, which is more valuable and meaningful.
After selecting the direction and category, then it is time to enter today's fourth layer of content!
04. Brand layer
When the direction is clear, the category is selected, and then the brand is done, it is relatively simple.
Why is it difficult for traditional restaurant brands to do? It is because they either swing left and right in the direction, or they have mistakenly selected unqualified categories from the source. In the past, the market will give us more opportunities to make mistakes, but sorry, in the post-epidemic era, there are fewer and fewer opportunities for everyone to make mistakes.
If you choose to take the road of scale, then you will face a road of "four catering": standardization, scale, chaining and branding, and there is a logical relationship between them:
The so-called standardization, refers to the category you choose, must be able to do standardization, please note that the standardization here, not only refers to the standardization of products and tastes, but also includes the standardization of decoration and service, and even the standardization of single-store models, otherwise the latter goals cannot be achieved. For example, the category of barbecue, it is difficult to appear a national large-scale chain brand, to a certain scale of the lack of follow-up, is to eat the loss of standardization.
The so-called scale, that is, the number of stores should be enough, but it should be noted that not only the scale, but also the health, without the scale of health, the brand is bound to be short-lived. And what does health depend on? The front is standardization, the back is the chain, these two points of Rong Shan He are not done well, they did not output standardization to the store, or simply output the standardization of ingredients and taste, resulting in although there is a scale, but the store is uneven, besieged.
The so-called chaining is to solve the problem of multi-store collaboration on the basis of scale, and also to solve the problem of health. Although the stores are distributed all over the place, but the city type, the type of business circle, the type of shop have a lot of commonalities, the store opened in the county, you can learn from other county stores that do well, in the CBD business circle stores, you can learn from other CBD stores with good business, external unification, internal interconnection, is the value of chaining, but also to truly solve the health problem.
The so-called branding, under the combined effect of the first three, branding is the inevitable result, from the perspective of consumers, in the future, they are more inclined to "recognize the brand"; from the perspective of communication, brand communication input-output ratio is the highest; from the management point of view, branding is the easiest to form a unified competitiveness. On the contrary, catering enterprises that do not solve the first three cannot be called brands, but can be called "self-employed consortiums" at most.
Therefore, catering people who choose to take the road of scale need to work hard around the "four catering", to absorb excellent talents, form a new team, hold an open-ended mentality from the beginning, start to solve problems such as talent, supply chain, traffic and funds, and then do a few model stores in a down-to-earth manner to prove that your choice has future space.
If you feel that it is too difficult to take the road of scale, do not belong to yourself, and want to take the road of craftsmen, then, in the post-epidemic era, what do you need to pay attention to? Or, even if it is a large-scale, to do a good job in the accumulation of the previous stores, what should be done? This brings us to today's fifth layer of content!
05. Store floor
A restaurant store is the smallest unit of food and beverage operations. Running a store well, so that the store can be stable and sustainable profits, is a must for all catering people, no exceptions!
So, in the post-epidemic era, what should store operations pay attention to? In fact, what needs to be emphasized in advance is that when you return to the store level to think about the problem, there is no pre-epidemic era or post-epidemic era! Why?
Because, in any industry, when it comes to the source and the smallest unit of the industry, its logic must conform to the general law, that is, it is universal to all eras, universal to all categories, universal to all markets, and universal to all bosses.
Some people may question whether there is such a general rule in the catering industry? some! And, every caterer should know!
Restaurant stores, in order to make stable and sustained profits, on the surface, need to solve many problems, such as products, taste, employees, decoration, service, marketing and so on. But sorry, these are just "techniques", techniques that serve the result of "profit", and there needs to be a standard on top of the techniques to judge whether these techniques are correct and reasonable, otherwise many of the efforts that seem to be hard work are actually useless.
So what are the criteria for whether the judgment is correct and reasonable? This involves the problem of the restaurant's single-store profit model, which can be summarized very simply, on three basic data, namely: repurchase frequency, repurchase conversion rate and customer base. Due to space limitations, the article can not explain these three data in detail to everyone, in order to facilitate everyone's understanding, I will simplify the explanation by example:
The so-called repurchase frequency, refers to the frequency of consumers to your home to consume, if you do not come to consume for a year, sorry, what you do is a hammer deal, such a restaurant is not sustainable. The frequency of healthy repurchase is repeated consumption on a monthly basis, either twice a month, or once a month, and the most important is also once every two months.
If the surrounding consumers do not come to consume once every two months, it means that there must be a problem with your restaurant, no matter how good your products are, how excellent the service is, and how suitable the environment is, it is all self-righteous. Again: these are all techniques, and whether they work or not depends on whether consumers are willing to pay for it. Eating once and not coming again means that the operation is ineffective!
The so-called repurchase conversion rate refers to how many people are willing to become your repeat customers. Indeed, no matter where the restaurant is opened, it is impossible for all consumers to like, and here it involves the concept of repurchase conversion rate: if you pursue the goal of re-purchasing once a month, then you must think about how many people will be willing to come back to consume at this frequency after the store is consumed? Is it 5%? 10%？ 15% or higher?
Many people think that their own repurchase conversion rate is very high, but unfortunately, the average repurchase conversion rate of specialty catering is only 10%-15%, and the repurchase conversion rate of just need fast food can only barely reach 40%. Therefore, no matter what era, you must be clear about the categories you operate, what is the standard of repurchase conversion rate, if you don't know, it is a blind man riding a blind horse.
The so-called customer base refers to how many people a restaurant needs to spend in the store. Because the restaurant is a business limited by time and space, if a 50-square-meter small shop can accommodate 20 people at the same time, flip the table five times, and receive 100 people to start making a profit, then you need 100 people to enter the store a day, and 3,000 people a month.
Therefore, 3,000 people is the actual demand for your restaurant, whether you are in the core city with a population of 20 million, or in a county with a population of 200,000 people, all you need is to find the 3,000 people who are willing to come to your store to spend, and if you can't find you, you will lose money, and you will lose money everywhere!
Combining the previous data, your restaurant only needs 3,000 people to spend in the store every month, and the frequency of repurchase pursued by your restaurant is once a month, so in fact, you only need to find 3,000 consumers who are willing to pay an average monthly time in the surrounding area!
Suppose your home repurchase conversion rate is 10%, then your restaurant must be opened in a business circle of at least 30,000 people, and let at least 30,000 people know about your restaurant. Through good products, good environment, good service and other elements, from the surrounding 30,000 people, according to the proportion of 10%, screen out 3,000 people, identify with these advantages in front of you, and are willing to come back once a month to consume, do these data, your restaurant can be profitable, continue to do these data, your restaurant can continue to make profits, the others are the appearance of the art, this is the bottom of the "root".
Therefore, whether you are a craftsman or a single store of a chain brand, as long as you return to the store layer, what you need to consider every day is only whether the three basic data of the restaurant are up to standard, if which data is not up to standard, in the daily work, to target which data can be improved, after proficiency, you can prevent it before it happens, and you can know the crux of the problem before the restaurant has a problem.
For example, what is the biggest harm that the pandemic has done to restaurants? It is a serious decline in the customer base, and consumers are locked up at home and dare not come out. Why didn't many high-end restaurants survive in the past? Because of the ban on eating and drinking with public funds, the main customers of these restaurants have been reduced by 90%, and ordinary people have no frequency, they do not go out of business, who is out of business? Why are internet celebrity restaurants almost all short-lived ghosts? Because they are all one-time consumption, not only no frequency, but also no repurchase conversion rate, they are not short-lived who is short-lived?
Repurchase frequency, repurchase conversion rate and customer base, these three data is the basis of the restaurant single store profit model, catering practitioners, as long as you understand the relationship between these three data, at different stages, for different situations, constantly adjust the data indicators, you can make the restaurant stable and sustained profitability, even if you can not make a profit, you can also know very clearly where you are losing!
This is based on the general rule of the store layer, it is not affected by the times, nor is it affected by the boss, whether it is the traditional catering small boss, or the brother who masters the traffic password, or even Lu Zhengyao, who is well versed in user thinking, back to the operation of the store layer, it is necessary to return to this origin, to solve the problem of how stable and sustained profitability of a single store, this is not established, and all other follow-up links are not established!
brief summary
In summary, in the next post-epidemic era, there is no need for caterers to be complacent because of anxiety, nor is it necessary to be confused by all kinds of dazzling appearances.
We in the restaurant are going through the ordeal, but at the same time, we are also embracing one of the biggest opportunities in the food and beverage industry. For ordinary people, the catering industry is still a grassroots counterattack, at least, it gives a lot of grassroots a fair chance to fight! Taking a step back, whether there is a COVID-19 pandemic or not, catering is a protracted battle.