"We don't have much sadness, it's more of a deep remembrance and a green hope that rises again." At the end of this year's Beijing Winter Olympics, director Zhang Yimou said such a sentence. When it comes to green hope, it's hard not to think of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that shined at the Winter Olympics.
In response to the green and low-carbon double carbon strategy, according to the data provided by the Winter Olympic Organizing Committee, during the Beijing Winter Olympics, more than 80% of the transportation facilities in the venue are composed of energy-saving vehicles or new energy vehicles, of which more than 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles are in demonstration operation.
From the perspective of specific categories, although most of them are hydrogen energy buses, Toyota Motor also provides hydrogen fuel passenger cars - that is, the new MIRAI of the second generation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. As the world's first large-scale hydrogen fuel cell vehicle operation case, this Beijing Winter Olympics is also regarded by the industry as a new starting point for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to take off.
But can hydrogen really fly? If you look at the development of hydrogen fuel from the current stage, there are still many practical factors, such as hydrogen production and storage technology, manufacturing and transportation costs and so on.
In 2021, the sales of fuel cell vehicles in China will mainly be commercial vehicles, and the total number of licenses will be less than 2,000. That is to say, there are still many problems that remain unsolved in the large-scale penetration of the passenger car market.
However, if we start from the dual carbon target, from a long-term strategic point of view, as the most ideal new energy source, in achieving the double carbon target, especially the goal of achieving carbon neutrality in 2060, hydrogen fuel cells will actually play an extremely important role.
In 2020, the mainland has put forward the "double carbon target" of striving to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, but from the perspective of the opening year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, 2021 is the first year that the double carbon target truly determines the strategy for each vehicle company and anchors the future.
From the perspective of scale, as the most effective way for major vehicle companies to achieve the double carbon goal, after experiencing subsidies, exploring the diversity of new energy travel methods has become the focus of new product planning for various vehicle companies.
Specifically, most of the joint venture brands are still aiming at the pure electric market, while independent brands such as BYD and Great Wall Motors are exploring EV routes while also spanning the energy-saving car market represented by plug-in hybrids. Among them, Toyota, Hyundai and other car companies also have a footprint in the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market.
It is precisely because of the diversity of choices that the domestic new energy vehicle market in 2021 has also ushered in a beautiful doubling growth trajectory. According to data from the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, in 2021, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide will be 2.988 million units, an increase of 169% year-on-year. Among them, pure electric models accounted for 2.444 million units, an increase of 168.6% year-on-year, and plug-in hybrid models, including range extensions, sold 545,000 units, an increase of 171.2% year-on-year.
It is worth mentioning that from the specific sales list of new energy products, it is not difficult to find that the rise of products including BYD Qin PLUS DM-i, GAC AION S, Nezha V, Euler Good Cat and other products has not only accelerated the reversal of the dumbbell-type situation and the transformation to the olive type, but also achieved substantial results in "lane change overtaking" in the true sense.
If the time is returned to five years ago, the domestic pure electric vehicle market and the plug-in hybrid vehicle market are still facing the same infrastructure construction and research and development costs and technical problems as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, so for hydrogen energy, hydrogen fuel really ushered in the outlet, it still needs a long cycle.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the rhythm of electrification, in 2021, international car brands including Daimler, Volkswagen, BMW, General Motors, and Ford have issued specific carbon reduction targets or carbon reduction schedules, further making the implementation of the entire electrification strategy more practical.
In terms of Chinese brands, including Dongfeng, Changan, FAW, GAC, Geely and other leading car companies, they have also written the electrification transformation time node and specific transformation strategy into the 14th Five-Year Plan. According to the electrification strategy released by most car companies in 2021, 2022 will be a big year for new energy products of vehicle companies, including joint venture brands and independent brands. This also shows that at this stage, the efforts and center of gravity of most manufacturers are still mainly focused on pure electricity and plug-and-mix and other categories.
Red dot observation:
Although with the conclusion of the Winter Olympics, hydrogen energy may once again fade out of the mainstream, but in order to realize the green dream, the transformation of new energy is imminent.
Although hydrogen energy cannot be achieved overnight, it may be expected to become the key to the differentiation of car companies in the future. Under the pressure of the double carbon target, exploring the diversity of energy is still an important torture for many car companies to compete for the future pattern.