Supply and demand to alleviate the domestic manufacturers "fighting" is in the OLED drive chip market Q2 or divergence

In recent years, the domestic new display industry has flourished, driving the demand for supporting materials such as OLED driver chips to continue to grow. However, affected by the shortage of wafer production capacity, the price of OLED drive chips has been in a continuous upward trend in the past two years, and panel manufacturers have also increased inventory to cope with the situation of "lack of cores".

However, as the demand for the end market continues to decline, the supply and demand of OLED drive chips has eased. Manufacturers pointed out to the author that the overall market demand this year is upward, but at present, due to the decline in demand, some chip manufacturers even reduce product prices to seize the market, but this situation will diverge in Q2, and it is expected that the Q3 industry will usher in a turnaround. ”

Supply and demand improve, manufacturers "fight"

In recent years, with the continuous maturity of OLED technology, the improvement rate and production capacity, its application scenarios will be greatly expanded. In addition to smartphones, tablets, wearable devices, TVs, etc. are also using OLED screens in large quantities, and the demand for OLED screens by global electronics manufacturers has also increased significantly, which in turn has increased the demand for OLED driver chips and other related components.

It is reported that OLED driver chips are currently mainly using 40nm and 28nm process processes, although a number of chip foundries have mastered these two types of processes, but at present only TSMC, Samsung Electronics, UMC Electronics, Grofond and SMIC have the ability to produce OLED driver chips.

In the past two years, olED driver chips have also been in a tight supply state under the tight supply of global wafer foundry capacity. However, as the demand for end markets such as smartphones continues to be sluggish, the tight supply situation has now been effectively alleviated.

According to the micro network report, due to the previous smart phone and other consumer electronic terminal supply chain manufacturers crazy stockpiling, beware of this year again appeared last year's serious lack of core situation, resulting in the current inventory pressure is very large, according to the market forecast, the entire consumer electronics market demand for chips is likely to fall by about 30% year-on-year.

Industry insiders told the author, "Before the overall supply of OLED driver chips is relatively tight, but now smart phone manufacturers to reduce the demand, especially some high-end machines, the overall demand for OLED panels reduced, then OLED driver chips will relatively ease a little." ”

"OLED driver chip supply is not very tight, the current domestic largest OLED panel manufacturer is BOE, its OLED panel overall order is about 60 ~ 70 Mil pcs, of which, Apple orders have accounted for 20 Mil pcs, the remaining more than 40 Mil pcs orders including Taiwan's Lianyong, Ruiding and other manufacturers to divide, Lianyong supply is more, accounting for about 20 Mil pcs, other manufacturers seize the remaining 20 Mil pcs, plus Jichuang North, Suppliers of domestic manufacturers such as Zhongying Electronics, Shenghe Microelectronics, Yunying Valley, and Sheng Micro microscopy have eased the tight supply situation. The above-mentioned person further said.

The OLED driver chip manufacturers also told the author, "Due to the impact of the epidemic in Shenzhen and Shanghai and other regions, terminal brands consume inventory, which may affect the overall shipment of OLED panels in the first half of the year, adversely affecting the company's original planned shipments, but this is temporary, will not affect our upward demand throughout the year, and the whole year is still positive for us." ”

For the current wafer foundry continues to increase prices, and OLED panel prices slightly declined, whether it will affect the price of drive chips, the above manufacturers said, "the market has competition, supply chain costs rise, these two contradictions will be more entangled, we strive to persuade end customers to accept, passed on to the market terminal." ”

But it also pointed out, "can not do the customer's ideological work, but also inevitably have a fight, now OLED domestic IC is in the stage of low price to seize market share, no one will be soft, but our company will not reduce the price for the time being." ”

Market Q2 may diverge

Although the current market demand decline has eased the supply of OLED driver chips, the demand for OLED driver chips has also increased with the continuous improvement of olED panel penetration in various fields.

Hu Zhengda, chairman of Duntai Electronics, pointed out, "Duntai has made good progress in touch ICs, wearable DDI, and even wearable IDC, and has developed a second-generation wearable OLED IDC, and entered the stage of small mass production, and it is expected that this year's shipments will have the opportunity to reach the level of one million, and even challenge the level of tens of millions." ”

According to Qunzhi Consulting data, in 2021, the global OLED smartphone panel shipments will be about 640 million pieces, up about 31.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate is expected to drop to about 5.4% in 2022; at the same time, the number of global OLED TV panel shipments will reach 7.6 million pieces in 2021, an increase of about 75.0% year-on-year, and it is expected to exceed 10 million pieces in 2022; the global OLED notebook computer panel shipments will be about 5.25 million pieces in 2021, an increase of about 464.4% year-on-year. It is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 60% in 2022. OLED display panel technology in the fields of smart cars and smart wearables also shows a rapid penetration trend.

At present, despite the relative turbulence of the peripheral environment and the continuous downturn in terminal demand, the penetration rate of OLED display technology in the field of smart phones continues to rise, and from the demand side, OLED driver chips still show an upward trend. At the same time, from the supply side, the global semiconductor supply chain is still subject to unstable geopolitical influences such as the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict", and the pace of 28/40nm capacity expansion is still limited.

According to the supply and demand model of Qunzhi Consulting, the supply and demand ratio of global OLED drive chips in 2021 is about -9.0%, and the supply and demand tension and shortage of goods are present throughout the year, and it is expected that the supply and demand ratio of global OLED drive chips will come to -2.1% in 2022, and the supply and demand will improve significantly compared with 2021, especially in the second half of 2022, with the arrival of consumer electronics demand in the peak season, OLED DDIC demand will increase significantly, and the overall situation of "first flat and then tight" throughout the year will be presented.

OLED driver chip manufacturers said, "In the second half of the year, the peripheral market as a whole is still relatively confident, the domestic epidemic should also improve after June, and the Russian-Ukrainian war should end this month, so the overall view is that the second half of the year will be better." ”

"There will be divergences in the second quarter, and the third quarter and the fourth quarter should be adjusted back, because there will be so much mature capacity that can produce OLED, and there will not be much supply." The above-mentioned person further said.

Another industry insider also said, "At present, the inventory of olED driver chips of panel manufacturers is in a high state, but after 3-4 months of consumption, the inventory will reach a balance, and it is expected that the Q3 industry will improve." ”

Industry insiders pointed out that despite the current decline in the smartphone market, the industry's prospects are still unclear. However, more and more consumer products, including wearable devices, laptops, tablets, etc., are using OLED panels, which will drive the market demand for OLED driver chips, and it is expected that the overall shipment volume will maintain a growth trend this year. (Proofreading/New)