The cost of photovoltaic continues to rise In the industry: in the first half of 2022, the supply and demand of some industrial chains are still in a tight state

Per reporter: Huang Xinlei Per editor: Wei Guanhong

In 2021, the photovoltaic industry ushered in a period of "golden development". However, while upstream and downstream enterprises enjoy the dividends of rapid development of the industry, the prices of some raw materials and auxiliary materials have also risen by different margins, leaving enterprises with a relatively heavy cost "burden". With LONGi and Zhonghuan successively lowering the price of silicon wafers, where the photovoltaic industry chain will go has also attracted much attention.

2021 China Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference Site Image Source: Per reporter Huang Xinlei photo

On December 14, at the 2021 China Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference held in Chuzhou, Anhui Province, many enterprises and industry experts located in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain analyzed and predicted the development trend of the industry in 2022.

"In the first half of 2022, the supply and demand of some industrial chains are still in a tense state", which has almost become the consensus of the industry. Zou Yanhui, an analyst in the green energy industry of Jibang Consulting, said that the annualized production capacity of silicon wafers, cells and components next year will be much larger than the capacity of the upstream silicon material end, that is, the actual output of the downstream will be limited by the realization of the output of the silicon material, "According to the current downstream expansion planning and construction progress, due to the long expansion cycle of silicon material, it is difficult to meet the installed demand of the downstream in a short period of time, and the quarterly mismatch between supply and demand will continue." ”

Thin wafer wafers and lightweight components will become a trend

"The thickness of the wafer began at the initial 200 microns, basically maintained for 5 to 6 years, until around 2019 to 180 microns, in 2020 and 2021, the mainstream silicon wafer thickness is still 175 microns." But starting this year, it was 170 microns at the beginning of the year and dropped to 165 microns in the second half of the year. Liu Pinglei, a technical expert at the LONGi Product Management Center, said that at present, some companies have quoted 160 micron silicon wafers, and it can be seen that the thickness of silicon wafers is decreasing rapidly, and he expects that the thickness of silicon wafers will be 160 microns in 2022.

According to Zou Yanhui, in 2021, the expansion of domestic silicon wafer production capacity continues to accelerate, it is expected that the supply and demand pattern of silicon wafers will usher in a reversal in 2022, the competition in the silicon wafer link will intensify, the market share of head enterprises will continue to decline, or fall below 80%, and corporate profits will also decline rapidly.

In terms of silicon wafer size, Zou Yanhui expects that the market share of large-size silicon wafers will exceed 70% in 2022, an increase of 25.7% compared with 2021, of which the demand for silicon wafers of M6 and above will gradually shrink, and the market share may drop to less than 30%. "In addition, since the second half of this year, in order to reduce costs, silicon wafer manufacturers have further reduced the thickness of silicon wafers from 170 microns to 165 microns, and the process of silicon wafer thinning has been accelerating." Zou Yanhui said.

In addition to wafer thinning, the weight reduction of glass also has a great impact on reducing the pressure on the encapsulation material. According to Liu Pinglei, the glass thickness from 3.2 mm, to 2.5 mm, 2.0 mm, and then to the current 1.6 mm, are the overall lightweight trend of the module, "I see that some mainstream OEMs have begun to exhibit ultra-thin components, the future with the development of new tempering technology or coating technology, glass thickness will not develop in a thinner direction, which may bring greater revolutionary changes to photovoltaic modules and overall packaging." ”

According to Zhang Fute, chief technology officer of Jolywood Photovoltaic, in 2020, the market share of 3.2 mm thickness of front cover glass is the highest, about 71.3%, with the continuous development of module lightweight, double glass modules and new technologies, under the premise of ensuring the power generation performance of components, cover glass will develop to thin sheets, the market share of front cover glass with a thickness of 3.2 mm will continue to be compressed, and the market share of glass below 2.5 mm thickness, that is, mainly used for double glass modules, will gradually increase.

According to the data, the market share of double glass modules in 2021 is 25%, lower than expected, mainly due to the high proportion of the household market in 2021, single glass modules have absolute advantages; the proportion of large-size modules single glass is higher, the positive strength of the components is high; the labor and transportation costs in overseas markets are high, and the lightweight transparent backplane is growing rapidly.

In this regard, Zhang Fute believes that double glass modules will not end the photovoltaic backplane, the current single glass module has the most mature supply chain system, 3.2 mm thickness of glass can almost be provided by glass factories, and the minimum size restrictions, high full tempering strength, no pore requirements, high compatibility.

N-type battery market share will reach 11%

"Since 2015, in the following 3 to 4 years, battery technology has been relatively stable, and at the same time, the development speed of component technology has been relatively fast; in these two years, the development speed of component technology has begun to give way to the development of silicon wafer and battery technology." According to Liu Pinglei, starting from this year, some head battery manufacturers have already made relevant technological breakthroughs, and mass production has also begun to start, and it is expected that 2022 will be the "first year" of large-scale mass production of N-type batteries.

However, in 2021, many battery companies are in a state of loss, Zou Yanhui expects that in 2022, with the improvement of the supply and demand pattern, battery companies are expected to reap profits, of which the market share of N-type batteries will reach 11%, and the production capacity will reach 58GW, mainly TOPCON batteries. "The stability of cost, yield and conversion efficiency is the key to mass production of N-type batteries."

According to the data provided by Jibang Consulting, the current planned capacity of TOPCON batteries has reached 95.3GW, the built production capacity is about 8.75GW, from the perspective of production lines, most of them are M6, M4 and G1 sizes; the planned capacity of HJT batteries has reached 148.2GW, of which the built production capacity is about 6.35GW, from the perspective of production lines, most of them are M6, M4 and G1 sizes, and a small number of enterprises have the ability to produce M6 sizes, but like M10 and G12 sizes are still in the development stage.

According to the data, the efficiency of the current P-type PERC battery is above 23% on average, which is close to its bottleneck, while the N-type battery, including TOPCON, HJT, IBC, etc., has good development prospects. Among them, THE CURRENT COST OF TOPCON IS RELATIVELY LOW, THE FUTURE EFFICIENCY HAS POTENTIAL, AND CAN BE MODIFIED BASED ON THE EXISTING HUGE CAPACITY; HJT BATTERY PARAMETER PERFORMANCE IS OPTIMAL, THE COST REDUCTION AND EFFICIENCY PATH IS THE CLEAREST, AND IT IS MORE LIKELY BECOMING THE NEXT GENERATION MAINSTREAM TECHNOLOGY. However, considering that HJT cost reduction still needs upstream and downstream, suppliers of the whole industry chain support, penetration rate will be gradually improved; and IBC batteries have the highest conversion efficiency, and can be stacked process to continue to expand the advantages, it is expected that technology-leading enterprises will also be laid out.

It is worth noting that Zou Yanhui said that in the photovoltaic auxiliary materials part, taking EVA particles as an example, the demand in 2022 is about 948,000 tons, and the supply is about 1.02 million tons, "From the current point of view, the production process of photovoltaic grade EVA particles is more difficult, coupled with a long expansion cycle, so in the next 2 to 3 years, the supply and demand of photovoltaic grade EVA particles will be in a tight balance, and even in the process of seasonal demand fluctuations, there may be a phased shortage." ”

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