Jiwei Network News, BYD Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "BYD") Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu pointed out at the March 26 Electric Vehicle 100 People's Meeting Cloud Forum that the past year can be said to be the first year of the development of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles broke out of huge energy, becoming the industry's new and old kinetic energy conversion and promotion of consumption of the pillar.
New energy vehicles ushered in leapfrog growth
In the past year, with the acceleration of the transformation of the automobile in the past century, the superposition of the double carbon target, new energy vehicles have ushered in the industry's outlet and achieved explosive growth. Since last year, BYD has relied on subversive technologies such as blade batteries and DM-i super hybrid platforms to insist on landing on the two legs of pure electric and plug-in hybrid, ushering in the outbreak of technology products and markets. ACCORDING TOD's official data shows that last year, the company sold 740,000 cars throughout the year, including new energy vehicles exceeded 600,000 units, an increase of 220% year-on-year, ranking first in China for 9 consecutive years, and achieving great development.
Wang Chuanfu pointed out that with the rapid iterative progress of technical products, new energy vehicles are comprehensively surpassing traditional fuel vehicles in terms of performance, modeling, noise, acceleration, smoothness, and intelligent use costs, and the price has begun to have a certain competitiveness.
At the same time, endogenous drives continue to increase. The data shows that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland also shows a month-by-month upward trend, from 6% in January 2021 to 22% in December of that year, with an average monthly increase of 1.3 percentage points per month.
Although new energy vehicles are different from industries such as home appliances and mobile phones, in addition to being market-driven, there are also policy-driven and national strategic orientation. But Wang Chuanfu pointed out that if the development of new energy vehicles ten years ago was mainly driven by policies, and the development of the industry three or five years ago was a two-wheel drive of policy plus market, then the current market drive accounted for 70%, and the policy drive accounted for only 30%. "We did an experiment, in the local auto show with 5 days to observe the scene of people's exhibition behavior, we found that 60% to 70% of consumers are looking at new energy vehicles, and the consumers who see fuel vehicles are only 30 to 40%, this data makes us very shocked, but we can clearly see that when the people buy cars, new energy vehicles have entered the mainstream vision, which is also the reason why the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased month by month."
According to the speed of industry change last year, Wang Chuanfu expects that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China will reach 35% at the end of this year. From a global perspective, to cope with climate change, to achieve carbon peak carbon neutrality is a global consensus, especially in the past three years in Europe' new energy vehicle development by leaps and bounds - last December Iceland has fully realized the full electrification of cars, Norway's penetration rate has reached 90%, Sweden has exceeded 60%, even the most developed traditional car power, Germany's penetration rate has exceeded 35%. All of this indicates the general trend of electrification accelerating change.
It is recommended to pull lithium iron phosphate back to the right path of the industry
However, Wang Chuanfu also pointed out that behind the explosive growth of the market, we must also be soberly aware that the current industry is facing severe challenges such as the intensification of the epidemic, the soaring price of raw materials, and the instability of the supply chain. He stressed that this year is a key year for new energy vehicles to take advantage of the momentum and accelerate change, and the more the industry grows at a high speed, the more it is necessary to think of danger in times of peace, seek progress in stability, take into account various complex factors, and adhere to the use of technological innovation to solve the problems of development.
For the next development, Wang Chuanfu suggested, first, that he hopes to clarify the preferential policies for new energy vehicles in the post-subsidy era. From a worldwide perspective, European and American countries are increasing their fiscal and tax support for new energy vehicles, but the mainland's new energy vehicle purchase subsidies, purchase tax reductions and other policies will be withdrawn by the end of this year. Considering that product development will take 3 to 5 years, in order to stabilize the expectations of the industry, it is recommended that the purchase reduction policy of new energy vehicles can be extended to maintain the stability of the policy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. At the same time, last year's new energy vehicle sales reached a new high, the supply and demand of points is seriously imbalanced, the price fluctuates sharply, which is not conducive to the development of the industry, it is recommended to refer to the grain reserve adjustment mechanism of agriculture, study the establishment of an integral pool to adjust the balance between supply and demand, enhance the predictability of the integral price, and ensure the effective operation of the double integral policy.
Second, adhere to pure electric and plug-in hybrid two-legged walking, last year plug-in hybrid in Europe market share of up to 50%, but China only 18%, China has more than 60% of the family is still a car-free family, plug-in hybrid, to achieve short-distance electricity long-distance oil, so that the family's first car can be oilable and electric. At present, there are more and more plug-in hybrid products on the market, if pure electric vehicles focus on solving the need for requisition, then plug-in hybrid to solve the needs of more family acquisition or exchange, the huge stock of fuel vehicle market to form a significant substitution effect. Plug-in hybrid has achieved an important path to achieve the goal of double carbon, and the change is relatively mild, which will help stabilize the industrial chain supply chain and achieve a smooth transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles.
Third, adhere to the development path of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Wang Chuanfu pointed out that safety is the mechanism of the development of new energy vehicles, and the cost is an important indicator that must be faced, but after the performance crosses a certain threshold, the importance of energy density is decreasing. In the past, when the mileage of electric vehicles was 200 kilometers, energy density was the most important indicator, but when the mileage reached 500 kilometers, it was equivalent to the mileage of a tank of fuel oil in fuel vehicles, and the battery energy density was no longer the most important, and the most important indicators may become safety costs, cycle life, etc. BYD proposed a blade battery, which solved the safety pain point, achieved energy density comparable to that of ternary batteries, and a stronger cycle life safety factor. Wang Chuanfu pointed out that the reason why lithium iron phosphate is proposed to pull back to the right path of industrial development is that lithium iron phosphate does not contain rare metals, which is more in line with the maturity of social resources.
In addition, Wang Chuanfu also stressed that the soaring price of raw materials is a challenge that the industry needs to overcome, and he suggested comprehensively combing the layout and production capacity of lithium carbonate resources, increasing domestic mining and foreign imports, maintaining the expectation of stable prices of supply and demand in the market, and promoting the healthy and safe development of the industry.
(Proofreading/Jimmy)