·
The recent problem of raw material prices has caused some trouble to the development of new energy vehicles in the short term, but in the long run, it is a good thing. We can more comprehensively examine the development path of new energy vehicles, so that the development of new energy vehicles can be built on a safer and sustainable basis.
Author 丨 Zhao Ying
Edited by 丨 Dahua
Produced 丨 Automan Media
Recently, the price increase of new energy vehicles has become the focus of public opinion inside and outside the industry.
The author summarized the development momentum of new energy vehicles in 2021 in an article last year, that is, "the first year of the development of new energy vehicles", which shows that the situation is very good. This year, new energy vehicles have continued the momentum of rapid development, but the rise in raw material prices has become a hidden worry for the development of new energy vehicles.
In this regard, the relevant government departments and industry associations have paid attention to it, saying that they should pay attention to and supervise the price of battery raw materials (especially lithium).
In fact, there are many reasons for the rise in the price of new energy vehicles, and they are also very profound. I would like to make a rough analysis here.
First of all, from the perspective of the international background, the price increase of new energy vehicles is not only a matter of raw material price increases.
The War between Russia and Ukraine has led to changes in the basic conditions of the global industrial chain, supply chain, raw materials, transportation, etc., and the increase in uncertainty has led to a higher risk premium. The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war is widespread, affecting almost all industries in the global manufacturing industry, and the impact on the automotive industry is also widespread, whether it is new energy vehicles or traditional fuel vehicles.
For example, a resurgence of chip shortages will have a significant impact on the global automotive industry. This geopolitical price increase is difficult to moderate for now, at least in 2022.
Automobile enterprises should comprehensively examine their own production and business strategies, adjust production and business strategies, and cope with the overall cost upward pressure.
Secondly, from the perspective of the international background, this price increase is not only a problem of lithium price increases, but also the price increases of other raw materials will inevitably be transmitted to the automobile industry, which will also have an impact on the entire automobile industry.
For example, Russia is the world's leading exporter of aluminum, nickel, palladium and platinum, and about 10% of the world's nickel, 6% of aluminum, and 3.5% of copper come from Russia. The Russo-Ukrainian war has been protracted, and the supply of some long-term raw materials (e.g., aluminum) will also be problematic.
Third, from the perspective of the development of new energy vehicles, so far in 2021, new energy vehicles have shown explosive growth, not only the "new forces" automobile companies have accelerated the expansion of scale, but also traditional automobile factories have accelerated their strategic transformation and shifted the focus of development to new energy vehicles.
For example, the so-called "BBA" has increased investment in new energy vehicles and accelerated the transformation to electrification and intelligence.
BMW plans to mass-produce and trial-produce 15 pure electric vehicle models in 2022, deliver 2 million pure electric vehicles worldwide by the end of 2025, and pure electric vehicles will account for at least 50% of BMW's total deliveries in 2030; Mercedes-Benz plans to invest more than 40 billion euros in pure electric vehicles from 2022 to 2030.
Japanese auto companies are also trying to keep up with the tide of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles.
Toyota Motor Corporation announced that it will achieve full electrification worldwide by 2035; Nissan Motor plans to electrify most of its models by 2030; and Honda Motor plans to launch all new models in China after 2030 are all electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles, and Honda's pure electric brand e:N will be officially launched in April.
The enthusiasm of local auto companies in mainland China for new energy vehicles is even higher. In fact, the first few of the new energy vehicle production and sales are traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers. Traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers not only catch up in terms of output and scale, but also launched popular products in some segments.
It can be said that almost all auto companies in China are transforming into new energy vehicles. This year, new energy vehicles continue to develop at a higher speed, which is the embodiment of this transformation.
As the global automotive industry accelerates its shift towards new energy vehicles, a serious imbalance between supply and demand has arisen between the rapidly expanding production capacity and key components (batteries) and raw materials (lithium, nickel, cobalt). From the perspective of industrial economics, this problem is the deep cause of price increases.
The accelerated growth of new energy vehicles has led to an expansion of the demand for lithium batteries, which in turn has led to an expansion of demand for key raw materials such as lithium.
However, the improvement of lithium supply depends not only on resource endowments (distribution, transportation, and supply security of lithium mines), but also on the extraction capacity of industrial lithium. Even if the mainland is relatively rich in salt lake lithium resources, its production capacity expansion also has to have a process. Lithium supply capacity expands, there must be a lag time.
During this period, the imbalance between supply and demand is larger, and the attention to lithium prices and even regulations are necessary, but price increases are still difficult to avoid.
In fact, several raw materials necessary for the development of new energy vehicles, in addition to lithium, the supply of nickel and cobalt is not optimistic. Coupled with the international situation shrouded in thick fog, the safety guarantee of the new energy vehicle industry chain cannot but be considered in the long run.
The mainland automobile industry should try its best to avoid major safety problems in its own industrial chain and supply chain while contributing to the improvement of national energy security and the environment.
Fourth, from the perspective of the development of the automobile industry, the price of equipment, parts and raw materials has always been rising, but the automobile industry still stubbornly adapts to environmental changes and survives, relying on two paths:
First, through large-scale production, automobile enterprises reduce, dilute, digest the cost increase caused by the rise in equipment, parts and components, and raw materials, and obtain economies of scale; second, technological progress, through technological improvement and even technological revolution, cross the development obstacles encountered.
Through large-scale production, reducing, diluting, digesting equipment, and rising costs caused by raw materials is the traditional way for automobile companies to cope with rising costs.
This is also the reason why the price of raw materials has risen this time, and some "new car-making forces" have not adjusted their prices. Because some "new forces" head enterprises are close to or reach the economic scale, they have a certain ability to digest price increases.
For traditional automobile companies, if the new energy vehicles reach a large scale (annual output of more than 100,000 vehicles), they also have this ability to cope. Traditional auto companies can also digest the impact of rising raw material prices to some extent by producing fuel vehicles at the same time (on a larger scale).
Through technological improvement and even technological revolution, crossing the obstacles encountered requires great efforts by automobile companies.
In fact, the development of new energy vehicles is to cope with the development dilemma faced by the automobile industry in terms of environment and energy. There are several technical paths for the research and development of new energy vehicle batteries. If lithium prices continue to rise, it naturally provides room for the development of batteries in other technical paths (e.g., hydrogen fuel cells, sodium batteries).
From this point of view, the development of new energy vehicles must be based on a diversified technical route. The market provides sufficient price stimulation, which is conducive to promoting the development of diversified technology routes.
The shortage of raw materials has also stimulated the improvement of related raw material development and utilization technologies. By improving the efficiency of the use of raw materials (reducing the use of raw materials) and increasing recycling, the problem of raw material supply can also be alleviated to a certain extent.
The above two paths require automobile companies to have sufficient strength and operating power. If these two roads do not work, there is only one way to increase the price of products.
Enterprises that increase the price of products, relative to enterprises that do not increase the price of products, are bound to be at a disadvantage in the market. From this point of view, the rise in lithium prices will exacerbate the reshuffle and elimination of new energy vehicles.
By the way, the price increase of new energy vehicles this time, although there are factors in the government's cancellation of new energy vehicle subsidies, but it is only a secondary factor. If we can strive for a larger market space and achieve economies of scale, we may have the ability to digest price increases.
If an industry and an enterprise want to gain a firm foothold in the market, it is impossible to rely on subsidies for a long time. This is also the reason why auto companies have reacted differently to the cancellation of subsidies and the rise in raw material prices.
In short, the recent problem of raw material prices has caused some trouble to the development of new energy vehicles in the short term, but in the long run, it is a good thing. We can more comprehensively examine the development path of new energy vehicles, so that the development of new energy vehicles can be built on a safer and sustainable basis.
【Copyright Notice】
This article is the original manuscript of Automan Media
Unauthorized reproduction is not permitted
▼