Two years later, Musk is awkward dancing again.
Can the same "catfish effect" work in Europe?
At 15:00 local time on March 22 (23:00 Beijing time), Tesla's second overseas factory, which is also Tesla's fourth factory in the world, was officially inaugurated at the Berlin factory in Germany. At the same time, the first batch of 30 "European version" Model Y was officially delivered to the hands of users.
For Tesla, the Shanghai factory allows Tesla to take root in the world's largest new energy market, and the Berlin factory allows Tesla to plant the revolutionary banner of new energy vehicles in the birthplace of the world's automobile industry, directly penetrating into the hinterland of international brands with far-reaching global market influences such as Volkswagen and BBA.
As a catfish in the new energy vehicle market, Tesla has entered China from 2020 for two years, and the Model 3 and Model Y models have once become the sales champions of the new energy vehicle market. At the same time, with Tesla's continuous cost reduction and the growth of FSD technology, the intelligent technology of domestic new energy vehicles is also increasing day by day, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased from 10% to 20% in just half a year. Tesla's catfish should be said to be indispensable to the development of China's new energy automobile industry.
However, unlike the Chinese market, Europe is a market with a deep-rooted car culture, which is undoubtedly a new challenge for Tesla.
So, next, tesla's "big catfish" in this traditional car company rooted in the European land, can it repeat the fierce catfish effect of the Chinese market?
01 The battery and the whole vehicle fly together, and the production capacity needs to be climbed
Next to the 30 model Ys freshly off the production line, Musk in a suit and leather shoes swayed to the rhythm as if he had entered the party scene. The last time I saw such a beautiful dance was two years ago when the Shanghai factory was put into operation.
Standing in this brand new Berlin factory, standing in the European land where traditional car companies originated, Musk's excited gesture is not without reason.
Because from here, Tesla may have to achieve a counterattack on the European new energy vehicle market.
According to the data, in 2021, the number of pure electric vehicles registered in Europe is 1205387 units, and Tesla alone contributed 167,549 units. According to the 2021 list of electric vehicle sales in 11 European countries, Tesla sold 116,000 units, second only to Volkswagen's 124,000 vehicles. This is still achieved with Tesla's delivery cycle of up to six months or even 8 months.
According to media reports, Tesla's Berlin factory covers an area of 300 hectares and has an annual assembly capacity of 500,000 vehicles. This means that in time, Tesla achieves full capacity production, tesla is likely to become the european electric vehicle sales champion.
It is reported that the Berlin Gigafactory will take the lead in landing a series of new production technologies, including front-and-rear integrated die casting, 4680 battery cells, CTC technology and new painting workshops, which will help Tesla reduce the number of parts, achieve lightweight and endurance growth, reduce its manufacturing costs and quickly increase production capacity.
At present, the 4680 battery factory with an annual production capacity of 50GkWh is also under construction, which is also the first factory in Europe to produce both batteries and vehicles. However, the battery factory production time has not yet been clarified, at the end of last year, there were reports that the plant is already building a cathode production line, there are rumors that it will be put into operation in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, but it has not yet been officially confirmed.
At present, the Model Y produced at the Berlin factory will still carry the 2170 battery.
It is worth mentioning that Tesla's Berlin factory is only 300 kilometers away from the catheter's battery factory in Thuringia, Germany. According to media reports, the battery factory has also recently been put into operation.
The relevant person in charge of CATL said that the production base is expected to achieve 14GWh of power battery production capacity in 2022. However, the factory has only clarified the plans of BMW, Volkswagen, Daimler, Jaguar Land Rover, PSA and other car companies, and there is no plan to supply Tesla.
It is reported that in the early days, the Berlin factory will only produce and deliver black and white Model Y Performance, and as the production capacity climbs, it will slowly add different colors and power versions.
In the first six months, Tesla plans to produce 30,000 vehicles, and the current daily production capacity is 100 vehicles per day, which is expected to increase to 1,000 units per week by the end of April.
However, in the fourth quarter of 2020 financial report, Tesla disclosed that the production plan of the Berlin factory, only the Model Y, and has not yet mentioned the Model 3 model, and the current new factory first delivered the model is only the Model Y, so it is not excluded that in a short period of time, the Model 3 model in the European market will still be mainly exported from Shanghai.
02 Production capacity of 2.7 million units in 2022, sales up 50%
Musk has previously said that Tesla's sales in 2022 will easily increase by more than 50% compared to 2021, thanks to the launch of new factories and the increase in production of existing factories. According to Tesla's global sales of 936,000 vehicles in 2021, Tesla may exceed 1.404 million units in 2022.
In addition to the Berlin plant, Tesla's Texas Gigafactory is also expected to be put into operation this year, with an annual production capacity of 500,000 units.
At the same time, the expansion of the production area of Phase B of the second phase of the Shanghai Gigafactory (Phase I) is currently underway and is scheduled to be completed in April this year. According to the data, the wholesale sales of Tesla's Shanghai factory in January this year were 59,845 vehicles, and in February it was 56,515 vehicles, according to this trend, the Shanghai factory achieved an annual output of 700,000 vehicles, which is basically stable.
According to Reuters, with the expansion of the factory this year, the Shanghai plant can reach 1.1 million units this year. Coupled with the 600,000 units of annual production capacity of the California factory itself, Tesla's total global production capacity can reach 50+50+110+60 by the end of this year, totaling 2.7 million vehicles.
According to the data, tesla's Shanghai factory exported 59% of Europe in February, and 68% in January.
Taking into account the two major new energy vehicle markets in China and Europe, the Shanghai super factory has been overloaded, which has also led to Tesla's pick-up cycle in the domestic market far exceeding other brands, and the official website shows that at present, in the Chinese market, the pick-up cycle of most Tesla models has reached 16 to 20 weeks.
The commissioning of the Berlin plant is expected to alleviate the export pressure of the Shanghai plant to a certain extent and accelerate the delivery cycle of domestic models. Tesla said that the Shanghai Gigafactory will meet more domestic demand in March.
In addition, thanks to the local advantages, the commissioning of the Berlin plant will inevitably greatly reduce the production costs and transportation costs of European models, thereby significantly reducing the selling price of this market.
The current Model Y Performance model starts at 63,990 euros (about 490,000 yuan) in Germany, while the model is priced at 417,900 yuan in China. With the subsequent increase in production capacity, coupled with the advantages of supply chain tariffs and other aspects, the price of the model in Germany is expected to be lower than the price of the Chinese-made model, thus bringing subversive cost performance and market competitiveness to Tesla.
In 2021, Tesla achieved 167,549 units in the European market alone by imports, accounting for 13% of the market. This year, with the start of production of the new plant, it is basically easy to exceed 200,000 vehicles.
03 Full-time madness meets political correctness, and Berlin is difficult to compare with Shanghai
However, tesla, a new force that is "big and fast" and does not take the usual path, it is not all smooth sailing to enter the European market, which is full of political correctness.
Just yesterday, when the Berlin factory was bustling with the opening ceremony, many anti-Tesla crowds outside the factory protested against Musk and Tesla by smearing street signs and sit-ins near the factory.
Prior to this, the construction process of the Berlin factory was also constantly obstructed.
When the factory broke ground in early 2020, environmentalists protested in Berlin on the grounds that Tesla had cut down trees and affected the hibernation of local wolves, bats, snakes and lizards.
At the beginning of last year, the construction of the Berlin factory was once again halted due to environmental problems, and Tesla had to pay a deposit of 100 million euros to the German environmental protection department to continue construction.
In June, with production imminent, the local Nature Conservancy and the Brandenburg Green Alliance took Tesla to court, demanding that it stop production testing at its Berlin plant on the grounds that it could not ensure the safety of the plant, such as the risk of chemical spills.
At the beginning of this year, environmental groups believed that the local water reserves could not eat up the water units of Tesla's Berlin factory, and the start of production of the factory was postponed again...
Some people speculate that behind this successive obstruction may be some German local car companies obstructing it. After the subsequent difficulty insurance factory is put into operation or in the subsequent expansion process, it will still be hindered by these "uncertain" factors.
In addition, staffing issues are a pressing issue for new plants.
It is estimated that only more than 2,000 people are currently employed in positions of nearly 10,000 people. Although there is no need for so many workers in the early stage, the lag in the arrival of personnel will inevitably slow down the progress of production capacity.
To attract talent, Tesla's Berlin factory offers competitive salaries in the industry from its German counterparts, including Tesla stock or bonuses. There are also some regular benefits, including pension plans, 30-day vacations, and insurance.
Even more, Tesla has also purchased a train commuter line to make it easier for employees to get to the factory.
But in the end, we can't compare Germany to Shanghai.
Germany is a welfare state, not only the personal consciousness of workers is very strong, the German labor law is more partial to workers, punctual commuting and free personal time is the bottom line of German workers rooted in the subconscious. Moreover, the status of trade unions in Germany is bound to be no lower than in the United States, and when welfare is not negotiated on any given day, strikes like GM's are really happening in minutes.
This means that the overloaded operation achieved by Tesla's Shanghai factory will be an impossible event in the Berlin factory.
As a result, the Berlin plant will take much longer to achieve an annual production capacity of 500,000 vehicles than the Shanghai plant, which will reach a full production capacity of about 480,000 in two years. At the same time, Tesla's first-year domestic production was about 147,000 units, and according to the progress of only 30,000 vehicles in the first six months of the Berlin plant, the plant may be far from catching up with the Shanghai plant in the second year of operation.
As the global leader in new energy vehicles, Tesla's efficiency and creativity are beyond doubt. However, unlike the two major markets in China and the United States, in this birthplace of the automobile industry and a variety of politically correct dyeing vats, tesla's next challenge from friends and local people is probably far from over.
The start of the plant is just the beginning of all the challenges.