The first quarter of 2022 is nearing its end, and for the automotive-related industry, the first quarter of the year can be described as a "rising voice". Tesla's three consecutive price increases three times a week have attracted attention to the price changes of new energy vehicles, but in fact, on the first day of the new year, the price of new energy vehicles has already risen, but what people did not expect is that within the first hundred days of 2022, more than 20 brands and 40 models have seen price increases, and many brand models have adjusted prices more than once.
In January, the policy cut subsidies for new energy vehicles fell
In January 2022, the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles is the reason for the fluctuation of the price of new energy vehicles. In order to promote the development of new energy vehicle technology, in 2009, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy was introduced, so far, the new energy vehicle subsidy has lasted for nearly 13 years, the total subsidy funds have exceeded 147.8 billion yuan, and the subsidy covers more than 1.916 million vehicles.
At the beginning of 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other 12 departments jointly proposed a plan: it is planned to continue to implement the preferential policies of new energy vehicle purchase subsidies, charging facility awards, and vehicle and vessel tax reduction and reduction policies in 2022, but the subsidy range will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy will be officially terminated in 2022, that is, new energy vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer enjoy new energy vehicle purchase subsidies.
According to the latest subsidy plan, from January 1, 2022, the subsidy for pure electric vehicle models with a cruising range of 300 km (inclusive) to 400 km is 0.91 million yuan, a decrease of 3900 yuan compared with 2021; the subsidy for pure electric vehicle models with a cruising range greater than or equal to 400 km is 12,600 yuan, a decrease of 5,400 yuan compared with 2021.
On January 1, Nezha, Weilai, Krypton, GAC Aian, SAIC Feifan and Jixing Automobile officially raised their prices, with the amount of price increases between 1,000 and 13,000 yuan; on January 11, Xiaopeng Automobile announced a price increase of 4,300-5,900 yuan. It seems that Tesla did not adjust the price in January 2022, but on the last day of 2021, the Tesla price rose by 10,000-21,088 yuan.
Subsidies have declined, and the price of new energy models has risen. However, in the cumulative sales of new energy models recently announced from January to February, it can be seen that the sales of new energy models still have doubled, with the total output of new energy vehicles reaching 820,000 units and sales reaching 765,000 units, an increase of 1.6 times and 1.5 times year-on-year. Judging from the current ownership of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles do have a long way to go. However, from the perspective of market sales and consumers, the impact of subsidy decline or withdrawal does not seem to be large.
Lithium prices soared wildly in February The cost of new energy vehicles increased
On February 14, the Euler brand officially announced that the black cat and the white cat stopped receiving orders, and then The CEO of the Euler brand, Dong Yudong, explained in the user App that the stop receiving orders was due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the losses brought by these two models were huge. Taking black cat as an example, after the sharp rise in raw material prices in 2022, black cats lost more than 10,000 yuan per unit.
Power batteries set off a round of price increases at the end of 2021, when BYD, Penghui Energy and other manufacturers have reported price increases. The battery price increased by 10% corresponding to the cost of a single kilowatt-hour of electricity increased by about 100 yuan, calculated by 50wh of bicycle power, that is, the cost of the bicycle of the corresponding car company increased by 5,000 yuan or more.
The demand for lithium batteries in new energy models is strong, and the global sales of new energy vehicles in 2019-2021 are 2.21 million, 3.24 million and 6.5 million, and the installed capacity of power batteries is 115.21GWh, 146.7GWh and 296.8GWh, that is, the corresponding sales volume of each GWh load is 19,100 units, 22,100 units and 21,900 units, respectively. In 2021, battery companies such as CATL, BYD, China New Aviation, Hive Energy, and EWELL Lithium Energy have announced a number of expansion plans.
The expansion plan of battery manufacturers has allowed lithium battery material companies to usher in a period of opportunity for product price increases, from lithium ore resources, cathodes to electrolyte and other raw materials, the past year has experienced a round of sharp price increases. At the beginning of March, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate exceeded 500,000 yuan / ton, compared with 278,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this year (quoted on January 4), up 80%, while a year ago, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was less than 90,000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 5 times a year.
In March, "demon nickel" struck and various brands announced price increases
In early March, Tesla's price rose three times in a week, once again sounding the rallying call of electric vehicle price increases, Wuling, FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, BYD have released the news of new energy model price adjustment, into late March, the price of new energy models to further expand.
Nezha's entire series of models has once again sent out the news of price increases: the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the supply chain is tight and many other factors have affected, Nezha Automobile will adjust the price of the models on sale, ranging from 3,000-5,000 yuan. The price adjustment will take effect from 00:00 on March 18.
On March 20, WM released the news: affected by the continuous sharp rise in raw material prices and the tight supply of suppliers, WM Motor will adjust the price of models on sale, and the price will be raised by 7,000-26,000 yuan after comprehensive subsidies.
On the same day: Xiaopeng Automobile will adjust the price of the models on sale, and affected by the continuous sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, Xiaopeng Automobile will adjust the price of the models on sale, and the price increase before the subsidy will range from 10,100-20,000 yuan. The price adjustment will take effect from 00:00 on March 21.
Various car companies have invariably given the same reason - the price of raw materials has risen. In addition to lithium, nickel is the raw material for new energy vehicles with the fastest price increase in recent times, so people also jokingly call nickel "demon nickel".
The price of nickel on 3-month futures rose 109.4% to $100,680 per ton. As a commonly used industrial metal, nickel is widely used in the production fields of stainless steel, nickel-based alloys, electroplating and new energy vehicle batteries, and Russia is the world's third largest producer of nickel metal. The regular inventory of nickel in London is dominated by nickel beans, and its inventory accounts for up to 70%, which is the main force of this price increase. The soaring price of nickel in London is also due to part from the tightness of nickel bean stocks.
It seems that the batteries used in new energy models use lithium-ion batteries, which have little to do with nickel. However, lithium batteries can not be separated from nickel metal, lithium-ion battery cathode use of nickel directly affects the energy density of the battery, that is to say, the more nickel is used, the longer the battery mileage of the same magnitude. This is why the price increase gap of new energy vehicles is large.
The people evaluate the car
Judging from the sales of new energy models in January and February 2022, the decline of the subsidy policy for new energy models has not affected the sales of new energy models at all. The price of new energy models has been rising continuously, all because of the price of raw materials. The soaring price of lithium and nickel has indeed been affected by some international situations, but the relationship between supply and demand is also one of the main reasons for the rise in the price of lithium and nickel in car manufacturing. At present, the demand for new energy vehicles in the domestic and international markets continues to rise, and it is unlikely to see the decline in raw material prices in the short term, and the possibility of new energy vehicle prices being lowered is almost zero. Therefore, while there are still some new energy vehicle prices that have not yet been adjusted, consumers who hold a wait-and-see attitude should buy their favorite new energy vehicles as soon as possible.