Recently, many people have such a feeling, except for pork has not risen, wages have not risen, stocks have not risen, everything is rising in price.
The new energy vehicles that have been pressing on the early stage and dare not raise prices have erupted again in less than two months after a slight price increase in January.
Since the beginning of the year, the price of nearly 50 models has been raised, with the highest increase of 30,000 yuan.
Friends who bought fuel vehicles do not dare to shout "refuel", but they are happy to buy new energy vehicles before the price increase tide, and buy the car into a hard currency that preserves the value and appreciation, the most bitter is the friend who waits and sees in the early stage, and has to squeeze the bus...
Speaking of good consumption promotion, why is there not only no preferential treatment, but also more expensive than before?
01
Behind the price increase
The second round of price increases for new energy vehicles has begun. After Tesla's three price increases this month, after the domestic BYD, Xiaopeng and Weima and other car companies have recently announced price increases, with a price increase of about 3,000 to 30,000 yuan. According to statistics, since March, more than 20 new energy vehicles have announced price increases, and nearly 50 models have raised prices.
In addition to the subsidy in 2022 compared with 2021 continue to decline by 30%, new energy vehicle companies passive price increase, the core reason for the price increase, or the upstream raw material prices continue to rise, car companies are difficult to carry.
Under the influence of comprehensive factors such as the epidemic and geopolitics, global commodity prices have continued to rise, the prices of aluminum, magnesium, lithium, steel, oil, rubber, chips, etc., an important raw material for automobile production, have continued to be high, and the cost of complete vehicles and parts has continued to be under pressure.
Taking Great Wall Motor's new energy brand Euler as an example, the company increased its price while stopping sales. Great Wall Euler has stopped taking orders because of the lack of core and the price of raw materials. In the context of lack of core and less electricity and the rising price of raw materials for power batteries, the company lost more than 10,000 yuan for every one sold.
According to the official website of Euler Automobile, it currently has three models of Euler Black Cat, Euler White Cat and Euler Good Cat, of which the euler black cat guidance price is 698-84,800 yuan, and the Euler white cat guidance price is 718,800-8.88 million yuan, but at present, only one model of Euler good cat is on sale, and the other two models were announced to be discontinued in February.
Euler's helpless move is only a microcosm of the rise in raw materials faced by new energy OEMs, and the loss-making business is really difficult to bear.
In addition, the cost of lithium prices continue to rise, and the current price of lithium carbonate has exceeded 500,000 / ton. The price of lithium carbonate has soared, and who has finally been hurt?
It's not yet an oem, and a battery factory.
Taking electric vehicles as an example, although the proportion of lithium salt in the cost is not large (2-3%), a 200,000 cost electric vehicle, the cost of lithium salt is 4000-6000 yuan, but the price of lithium carbonate doubles and doubles, which is bound to have an impact on the downstream. Not to say more, assuming that the cost of lithium salt in the whole vehicle doubles, other costs remain unchanged, the cost of the car will soar by 4,000-6,000 yuan.
The first is the whole machine factory, the whole machine factory is very sad, because the short-term shortage of resources, resulting in a positive pole is very uncomfortable, the whole machine factory calls for rational treatment of this market.
As for the battery factory, ningde's excess profit is a long-term price of various resources, so it is so profitable, but other second- and third-line battery factories are not profitable.
The battery factory of the third echelon basically has no tricks, because the premium ability is very poor, neither can get the long-term price of lithium mines, nor does it have the ability to negotiate with downstream OEMs to increase the price of batteries, and it is basically impossible to pass the lithium price of 500,000 to the downstream.
However, after Tesla fired the first shot of price increase, a number of domestic new energy vehicle industry chains have a greater incentive to increase prices.
In addition, in addition to the rising cost, the rise in oil prices has given enough confidence to car companies to increase prices. Affected by inflation, production capacity, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and other factors, international oil prices have risen sharply, and there is no sign of falling in the short term, while domestic oil prices have ushered in the fifth increase in the year, entering the 9 yuan era.
The oil truck family joked that 92 full of debts, 95 full of bankruptcy, 98 full of three generations of repayment...
Although new energy vehicle companies have recently set off a wave of price increases, some institutional calculations show that in the case of the same price and mileage, the full cost of new energy vehicles still has significant advantages.
02
Can it go up again?
The day before yesterday, the ideal leader Li Xiang said on the social platform that at present, the brands that have contracted with battery manufacturers to determine the price increase in the second quarter have basically announced the price increase immediately. Most of the brands that have not yet increased their prices have not yet been negotiated, and they will generally increase prices immediately after they are negotiated. "The increase in battery costs in the second quarter was very outrageous."
(Source: Network)
It can be seen that the rising cost of batteries is the main reason for the price increase of new energy vehicles, and the rise in battery costs comes from the high price of lithium ore.
This is back to the lithium price will continue to rise?
Personally, I believe that lithium prices are expected to accelerate to peak in advance. On the one hand, the issue of lithium carbonate has received regulatory attention. On the other hand, salt lake production capacity began to resume after entering the spring, which is conducive to alleviating the extremely tight supply and demand pattern since December last year.
On Friday, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a lithium industry symposium, which included the relevant responsible persons of key enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain such as lithium resource development, lithium salt production, cathode materials, and power batteries. The meeting asked upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to strengthen the docking of supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperation relationship, and jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt prices.
Affected by the news and the acceleration of channel shipments, the trading price of lithium carbonate in Wuxi electronic disc fell by more than 6% on Friday afternoon, and the quotation fell to 450,000 yuan / ton.
In addition, the shortage of capacity recovery has eased, and the price of lithium carbonate has stabilized. Since January, due to the overhaul of lithium salt plants, there has been a huge gap in domestic lithium salts. With the end of the maintenance, the seasonal production capacity in Qinghai has recovered, the domestic lithium salt supply has rebounded significantly, and the domestic lithium carbonate shortage situation has eased.
At present, the upstream and downstream are still in a state of game. Downstream is still on demand procurement, wait-and-see sentiment is stronger, upstream producers have signs of loosening, there is a sell-off behavior. The market rumors that the Lithium Industry Association will formulate measures for traders to hoard goods, which is expected to squeeze out about 10,000-20,000 tons of supply.
With the increase of supply of lithium salt enterprises and the gradual release of production capacity, lithium salt prices are expected to stabilize, or even decline. Lithium prices are expected to remain high at present, and the margin of supply and demand will be relaxed after the third quarter of 22 years.
(Data source: Huaan Securities, lithium price center is expected to slow down)
From the demand level, there is no doubt about high growth, but there will be relatively no more variables, and the market's expectations are relatively sufficient, but the supply side is more variable, when there is an inflection point, only when the supply is released on a large scale.
Don't forget that lithium salt is always a cyclical industry, there will be a highlight moment will also have a dark moment, just like the boss of Ganfeng Lithium industry said that "lithium carbonate has 200,000 yuan / ton yesterday, and may also have 40,000 yuan / ton tomorrow." ”
If the upstream lithium salt price stabilizes, or even falls, the cost of the entire new energy vehicle industry chain will decline, and there is naturally no confidence to increase the price again.
03
Is it acceptable to consumers?
Regardless of the impact of the price of raw materials on car companies, the price increase tide of this new energy vehicle outbreak obviously requires consumers to pay for it.
Start a day late, pay tens of thousands more.
The car is affected by the rise of raw materials, and the price increase of the product is also reasonable, but this part of the cost will eventually be equally spread to the consumer, and the consumer's purchase of new energy vehicles is undoubtedly the cost performance of the product, so after the price increase, is there a cost performance to speak of, and will the consumer buy it?
In other words, price increases are not a good solution, and if they rise less, they will still lose money, and consumers will not buy it.
On the other hand, not only has the price risen continuously, but the delivery time of some new energy vehicles and new energy vehicles has generally been lengthened. The product pick-up cycle of many brands has exceeded 10 weeks, and some popular models even need to wait 4 to 5 months to pick up the car. Bydir, GAC Aeon, Great Wall Euler, Geely Geometry and other brands of popular models have a pick-up cycle of more than 3 months.
Nowadays, when buying a car, you need to wait for the first half of the year to be delivered, will it change to suppress consumer demand?
In addition, at present, the state pays attention to promoting consumption and supports the consumption of new energy vehicles. This year's government work report clearly continues to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and proposes policies such as reducing taxes and fees, maintaining the security and stability of the industrial chain supply chain, and increasing support for the real economy, including the new energy automobile industry.
In the case of the high base of the impact of new energy vehicles last year, and the new subsidy policy has not yet been introduced, the pressure on the entire automotive industry chain will only increase, not decrease.
The monthly sales data of the automobile market in 2021 shows that the proportion of new energy vehicles in China's automobile sales is close to 20%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is indeed increasing, and the acceptance of consumers is also improving, but new energy vehicles are not yet at the point where consumers must buy. In addition to some restricted cities sell more, other urban people's desire to buy new energy vehicles is not so strong.
Some people also believe that the collective price increase of new energy vehicles this time may be a test of the bottom line of consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles, to see how accepting everyone is, if they do not accept the estimate, they will honestly reduce prices, if they can accept it, it is estimated that every time they retreat and retreat, they will rise again.
However, in the current macro situation, how many consumers can calmly pay for this price increase, I am afraid that many car companies have no bottom in their hearts.