According to the Financial Associated Press | New Consumption Daily (reporter Tang Zhixiao), folding screen mobile phones are on the eve of the outbreak.
At the end of 2021, the folding screen mobile phones of domestic brands were released in a pile; just in the recent MWC 2022, TCL, OPPO, Honor and other mobile phone exhibitors have also displayed their folding screen mobile phones or concept products. Vivo will also release its first folding screen mobile phone in the near future.
According to the data provided by the screen supply chain consulting company DSCC, the shipment of folding screen mobile phones reached 2.6 million in the third quarter of 2021, reaching a record high. According to the latest report of the national IDC, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones reached 7.1 million units in 2021, an increase of 264.3% over the 1.9 million units shipped in 2020.
Although the industry is optimistic about the future of folding screens, there are still many problems to be solved.
The new consumer daily reporter found through the visit that the folding screen mobile phone in offline brand stores is indeed selling well. Folding screen mobile phones with a long listing time can be picked up in stores without reservation. However, products such as OPPO Find and Honor Magic V, which have just been launched, still have the problem of out-of-stock in a short period of time.
"The demand for folding screens has been very strong since they were listed, and we are now in full pre-sale online, basically waiting 21 days to a month." A few days ago, Honor CEO Zhao Ming said in an interview with The New Consumption Daily that although there are more black swans facing the supply chain this year, and there will be a period of tension, Glory and suppliers will still do their best to improve supply.
The information obtained by the reporter from the mobile phone manufacturer and the supply chain shows that the relevant technology of the folding screen is becoming more and more mature, and the cost of unit components is also decreasing step by step, and the adaptation of software and hardware will be an important challenge that the folding screen mobile phone needs to face.
The popularity of folding screens has risen, and new products are still "difficult to find"
Through the visit, the reporter found that the folding screen mobile phone with a long listing time basically did not need to make an appointment, and could be picked up on the spot, and even "group purchase" of multiple units, and some models also had discounts.
"Dozens of units were sold years ago, there is no problem in the supply, and you can buy it online and offline," the salesman of the Huawei counter in Xidan Joy City told reporters, "If you buy our P50 Pocket in bulk, we can give you a discount." ”
Huawei P50 Pocket
Another brand that does not have supply problems is Samsung. "We sold more than 20 W22s last month, and the fold also sold more than 10 units," the salesman at Samsung Counter told reporters. However, the stock is now very sufficient, and we have 5 machines in the library. If you're going to get more phones, you need to let me know a few days in advance and we'll transfer the goods for you. ”
Samsung Galaxy W22 5G
There are only some folding screen mobile phones that have just been released, and it is difficult to buy directly from offline stores. Although OPPO Find N has been out of stock for more than 3 months, according to the OPPO brand store clerk, the product has been out of stock.
"From December last year (when the product was just released) to now, we have sold more than 200 products. Every replenishment will sell out," said the oppo mobile phone salesman, "now there are only a few black top-matched Version Find N left in the store, which has been out of stock before." ”
The same is true of another Honor Magic V released in January, and the reporter learned that the Xidan store has stopped booking.
"There are more than 80 customers who buy in the front," the salesman at the Glory store told reporters that there was no stock, "this is a relatively normal situation." It's hard to say that this is not the popularity of the brand in the speculation (folding screen mobile phone), but it is expected that after a month or two, the Magic V will not need to make an appointment and can be purchased at any time. ”
Honor Magic V
On the whole, the more tight folding screen mobile phones, such as OPPO Find and Honor Magic V, in addition to the shorter time to market, often the price is relatively low, compared to Huawei and Samsung's folding screen mobile phones, the cost performance is higher.
Obviously, the folding screen mobile phone in 2022 is no longer the "flower of Gaoling", and the price has even been lowered to the pricing of some high-end mobile phones. At present, the main reason is the increasing maturity of the technology of manufacturers and supply chain enterprises and the reduction of the cost per unit of components.
Flexible screen: the "facade" of the folding screen
With the increasing shipment of folding screen mobile phones, mobile phone manufacturers have contributed to the growth of the flexible AMOLED industry chain together with supply chain enterprises that smell opportunities due to the needs of their own brands and sales.
Samsung is the industry's largest supplier of AMOLED screens, and most folding screen phones on the market have applied AMOLED flexible screens provided by Samsung.
This includes the OPPO Find N series, Samsung's two folding screen phones Galaxy Z Fold series and Galaxy Z Flip series, and Xiaomi's MIX FOLD. Among them, the latest Galaxy Z Fold3 5G and Galaxy Z Flip3 5G both use Samsung's latest generation of AMOLED flexible screen, with 120Hz dynamic refresh rate features.
At present, the domestic layout of flexible AMOLED enterprises are mainly BOE, Visionox, Shentianma, Royole Technology, TCL Technology Huaxing Optoelectronics. Among them, Royole Technology and BOE have already produced mass production mobile phones.
Among them, BOE is the exclusive supplier of Huawei Mate Xs and Mate X flexible folding screen mobile phones. At present, BOE has three sixth-generation flexible AMOLED production lines, respectively in Mianyang, Chengdu and Chongqing, in 2020 flexible AMOLED product shipments to achieve a breakthrough, the annual shipment volume increased by more than 100% year-on-year, the market share ranked in the world's top two.
Relevant data show that in 2021, the overall shipment volume of BOE flexible AMOLED continued to increase, shipping about 40 million pieces in the first three quarters of 2021, continuing to maintain a substantial growth year-on-year, and the situation continued to remain good after entering the third quarter.
In addition, Visionox also publicly disclosed that the yield and momentum rate of the company's 5.5 generation production line in Kunshan and the 6th generation flexible screen production line in Gu'an have been further improved, and the products have been continuously delivered to first-line brand customers; and the 6th generation flexible AMOLED production line in Hefei and the flexible module line in Guangzhou Zengcheng have achieved mass production delivery to brand customers, and the production capacity has steadily climbed.
Liquid metal materials are expected to be the future choice for hinges
Hinges are key functional components that enable foldable mobile phones, and the structure is complex. The hinge applied to the folding screen smartphone not only needs to have at least 100,000 times of opening and closing life, but also needs to have the characteristics of light weight, small size and strong stability. Its manufacturing process covers the processing and assembly of a variety of precision structural parts, and it can be seen from the patents of Huawei and Samsung that the hinge is composed of hundreds of precision components.
According to the product leader of OPPO Find N product to the new consumption daily, OPPO Find N this product has experienced 4 years, iterated 6 generations of products, applied for 840 patents, and authorized more than 230 invention patents. "The hinge alone has 125 patents."
At present, whether it is Samsung, Huawei, or OPPO, they have chosen the road of self-development of technology, and the research and development of the optical hinge part has started at least two years.
"Our products are not only considered from the durability and robustness, but also from the material aspect," the product leader of Samsung told reporters, the metal parts on the fuselage use self-developed "armored aluminum" material, while ensuring durability, but also reduce the weight of the fuselage.
Previously, Samsung released the Galaxy Z series folding screen mobile phone, while achieving hinge folding, but also achieved IPX68 level waterproofing. This not only depends on the design of the mechanical structure, but also requires the introduction of new waterproof materials.
Based on these requirements, liquid metal materials are expected to be the best choice. Liquid metal has the comprehensive characteristics of solid, metal and glass, with high hardness, corrosion resistance and high wear resistance, bending strength, tensile strength, elastic deformation and so on are better than commonly used materials. In terms of production processes, the wide range of material adaptations, high degree of automation, and the realization of high-volume metal injection molding (MIM) technology for complex parts at a low cost are the most ideal technologies at present.
UTG cover: folding screen mobile phone wear-resistant and flexible key
The screen cover material of the folding screen mobile phone is another major factor related to the experience of the folding screen mobile phone.
The previous first-generation folding screen Galaxy Fold and Huawei's Mate X both used CPI (Colorless Polyimide, colorless polyimide), which is essentially a colorless and transparent plastic. It is thinner and easier to fold than the glass cover. More importantly, CPI can be mass-produced.
However, CPI has a fatal drawback - its hardness and durability are not ideal. That's why after the first generation of Galaxy Fold and Mate X were used for a while, the screen inevitably appeared scratched, yellowed, and even broken.
Until the advent of Samsung's second-generation folding screen phone, the Galaxy Z Flip. This product chose UTG (Ultra Thin Glass, Ultra Thin Glass) on the cover of the screen. This material combines the hardness of glass with a certain toughness.
After that, Samsung's two folding screen phones, the Galaxy Z Fold3 5G, the Galaxy Z Flip3 5G, and the newly released OPPO Find N, all used UTG supplied by SCHOTT Glass. In fact, in addition to SCHOTT, another glass supplier giant, Corning, is also working with Samsung to build the UTG supply chain.
At present, in addition to SCHOTT Glass and Corning, the only enterprises with the ability to provide UTG glass original sheets are Kaisheng Technology in the domestic supply chain. In 2020, Kaisheng Technology realized the only domestic "original film formula development, original film production, UTG thinning, UTG molding, flexible bonding" a full set of ultra-thin flexible glass production process technology.
This is not unrelated to Huawei's tilt towards domestic supply chain enterprises. As early as the second half of 2018, Kaisheng Technology has entered the Huawei mobile phone supply chain, and in 2021, it has been disclosed and jointly applied for a flexible glass processing technology patent.
In July 2021, the first phase of the project of Kaisheng Technology has been completed and put into operation, and has the supply capacity, and the second phase of the UTG project is also under investment and construction.
The entry barriers of the UTG industry chain are mainly reflected in the development of original film technology and heavy capital investment. In addition to Kaisheng Technology, Hemei Optics invested a total of 1.2 billion yuan to build a UTG ultra-thin electronic flexible glass production project in Jiangxi Province. Jiangsu Sujun Technology and South Korea Sutsen Co., Ltd. invested 6 billion yuan to build an annual output of 50 million pieces of flexible folding screen glass substrate project.
Hardware and software adaptation is the next challenge
At the 2022 Mobile World Congress, Honor CEO Zhao Ming once threw out the view that "the folding screen mobile phone market can grow by 10 times in 2022". In his view, folding screen mobile phones will become the mainstream of smart phones like ordinary mobile phones.
However, in addition to the technical maturity of the supply chain, the problem that the folding screen still needs to solve is actually the adaptability of software and hardware.
It is worth noting that Google has released an optimized version of Android 12L for folding screen mobile phones, which is expected to be officially launched in the first quarter of this year. The adaptation of the underlying aspects of the system is no longer a problem, and all that remains is how to get more third parties to adapt to the individual models.
"The problem of adaptation is indeed a very challenging thing, and the workload is 4 to 6 times the workload of the average flagship." OPPO chief product officer Liu Zuohu said, "The application adaptation of the head should be talked about one by one, and its own system applications should also be designed separately, and some innovative user experiences need to be redeveloped, the workload is very large, and the challenge is greater than the hardware." ”
It must be pointed out that the current folding screen mobile phone market is still Samsung's "world". According to DSSC data, in the third quarter of 2021, Samsung accounted for 93% of the global foldable smartphone market share, followed by Huawei, with a 6% market share. The attitude of giants like Apple to folding screens has not yet been clarified.
However, on the eve of the outbreak of the "folding screen" concept product, due to the industrial chain of the core components of the folding screen has become increasingly mature, the major mobile phone brands only wait for the enterprises in the supply chain to develop full horsepower, and then achieve the ramp-up of production capacity. According to OLED Industry statistics, there are 12 6 generation production lines built and under construction in China, and the total production capacity will exceed 500,000 pieces per month after all full production.
"Folding screen mobile phones have gone through the 'concept gimmick' era, and what follows is a real functional competition." Honor China CMO Jiang Hairong thinks.