If the folding screen phone dropped to 5,000 yuan, would you buy it?

Photo: Xinhua

Source: 21tech

Author: Ni Yuqing

Editor: Li Qingyu

In 2021, the folding screen mobile phone style is back, and for a time "folding" has almost become an essential ability for mobile phone manufacturers.

Three years ago, Huawei and Samsung took the lead, and there were 5 press conferences for the head companies this year:

In February, Huawei updated the Mate series;

In March, Xiaomi launched the MIX FOLD;

In September, Samsung updated the Fold series;

In December, OPPO released the first folding screen mobile phone Find N, and Huawei launched the first vertical folding screen mobile phone P50 Pocket2022.

More new machine arrows on the string, glory Magic V folding screen is scheduled to be released in January next year, recently Xiaomi vertical folding screen patent exposure, vivo related news is also frequent, it is foreseeable that next year the folding machine market will emerge more forms and players.

Folding screens, as a niche emerging species, have evolved and iterated in controversy, but the new round of advancement presented this year is different from previous years, and in addition to the breakthrough of hardware structure, there have also been industry changes.

An important signal is that the mobile phone giants have clarified the investment in the folding screen, and Apple is also considering entering the game, according to the latest prediction of Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingxi, the first Apple folding screen mobile phone will come out in 2023, and Apple is ready to increase the shipment of its first folding screen iPhone to 20 million units. And Apple will not be aiming at a small market.

On the other hand, with the sales growth of folding screen mobile phones, has reversed the innovation of the supply chain, Chen Jun, deputy general manager and chief analyst of Sigmaintell, told reporters: "Now the supply chain investment is very hot, the development speed is very fast, in three or five years, the mobile phone in everyone's hand must be a different form of mobile phone." Next year we predict that the folding will be five thousand yuan, and the next year, the big year, the folding products will definitely go to three thousand, or even less than three thousand. ”

Under the joint efforts of terminals and supply chains, folding screen species have gradually entered the 2.0 version, and whether it can open the paradigm upgrade will be the next test.

When the folding screen phone drops to 5000 yuan

Of course, the experience of folding screen mobile phones is not perfect, mobile phone weight, battery life, screen creases, application ecology still has shortcomings, although the starting price has reached the 7000 yuan gear, for most consumers is still prohibitive. As the top representative of high-end mobile phones, the popularity of folding screens will take time, but many potential users have told reporters that 5,000 yuan or the psychological price boundary line for buying folding screens.

According to analysts' predictions, the price of folding screen mobile phones next year is likely to break 5,000 yuan, and the cost will continue to decline, which is closely related to the continuous growth of the supply chain and is one of the important changes this year. After 3 years of development, folding screen mobile phones are promoting the technological upgrading of the upper and midstream supply chains, and gradually promoting the update of materials and other fields through market-oriented iterations, thereby reducing the cost of core devices.

Minsheng Securities report pointed out that the folding screen mobile phone use experience improvement mainly overcome the technical directions include: hinge technology, screen technology, weight, endurance, application interaction design, etc., at the same time, the production capacity of industrial chain accessories is also the key to supply and cost reduction, including UTT glass original/deep processing capacity, flexible OLED production capacity, etc.

Taking the folding screen mobile phone screen protection layer material as an example, it is undergoing iteration, previously based on CPI, and now UTT (Ultra Thin Glass ultra-thin glass) has entered the supply chain. The original use of the "gold film" CPI (transparent polyimide, with good bending resistance) due to its low hardness, crease problems can not be solved, the technical route began to turn to UTTG.

"From the perspective of the cost of folding mobile phones alone, including the cores of the screen, UTG cover, and hinge, especially the hinge." Next year, more cost decline comes from the gradual maturity of the local supply chain, there are many local UTG, hinge manufacturers in the second half of this year or next year gradual mass production, will be a very important driver of the cost of folding products, the supply chain is more mature. Chen Jun analyzed to 21Tech reporters.

For example, Said Semiconductor, Kaisheng Technology, Huijing Display, Dongxu Optoelectronics, Changxin Technology and other manufacturers have announced the research and development progress or plan of the UTT glass project; in terms of shaft, the process is complex, to withstand tens of thousands of bends, the use of MIM (Metal injection Molding metal powder injection molding process) process, Changying Precision, Dongmu Shares and other companies have layout.

At present, the global production and sales of folding screen mobile phones are still in the million level, but it has driven the evolution of materials and processes in the upstream of the flexible industry chain. Although the new species of folding screen mobile phone is still relatively fragile, with the introduction of new generations, the future evolution direction is still expected.

The "tacit understanding" of mobile phone manufacturers and supply chains

At the same time, it is worth noting that everyone has successively launched folding screen products in just three years, especially this year's intensive release of mobile phone manufacturers to cultivate the market, which is quite tacit. Perhaps the upstream and downstream consensus is that to make the folding screen industry chain bigger, no manufacturer can take all the market share. In other words, the joint exploration of the upgrading of the mobile phone industry between terminal companies and suppliers is more like a tacit collaboration to innovate.

Mobile phone manufacturers may need folding screen mobile phones to show high-end strength, especially the current high-end market is in a state of fierce competition; at the same time, it cannot be denied that the emergence of folding screens is the timely rain of the mobile phone industry now, and there are innovations in hardware and application ecology.

In addition, it cannot be ignored that from the perspective of the supply chain, the current small and medium-sized screen OLED capacity is in a state of excess, panel manufacturers also need more outlets to the sea, folding screen is regarded as an important direction.

After the investment in the flexible AMOLED production line in the past few years, domestic manufacturers have ushered in a peak of mass production in the past two years. For example, BOE has laid out two 6-generation flexible AMOLED production lines in Chengdu and Mianyang, both of which have achieved mass production, just on December 28, BOE officially announced the mass production of chongqing's 6th-generation flexible AMOLED production line, and the output of the three lines together will reach the second in the world.

TCL Huaxing's flexible AMOLEDt4 production line in Wuhan has completed the first phase of production, has completed the construction of the second and third phases, and is ramping up production capacity; at present, Visionox has three AMOLED production lines, and the latest Hefei 6-generation flexible AMOLED production line has also achieved mass production delivery this year; Tianma's 6th-generation flexible AMOLED production line project (TM18) is expected to achieve product lighting in the first half of 2022, and TM17 flexible production capacity has been released on a large scale.

Chen Jun said: "Before 2021, the entire flexible OLED is basically a Korean factory, and now BOE, TCL Huaxing, Tianma, Visionox and other panel factories flexible OLED are basically mass-produced, BOE is also supplying Apple, which also means that the entire domestic OLED technology level has reached a relatively high level of quality, and the proportion of Chinese mainland shipments will gradually increase." ”

He further said that from the perspective of mobile phones, the overall scale of flexible OLED panel shipments this year is about 340 million pieces, next year is expected to be 420 million pieces, and the flexible OLED production capacity of Chinese mainland production next year is expected to account for about 37%-38% of the world. OLED panels will be used more and more, PCs will also have a lot of folding product planning, and folding in the long run is a major trend, after 2025, it may be stretched, may be curled form.

At present, in the smart phone industry, folding screen mobile phone is still a small type, under the development and demand of the overall industry chain, according to the prediction of Qunzhi Consulting, sales will double to more than 14 million units next year. From the perspective of the growth trend and the rise of the domestic supply chain, the folding screen industry has entered a new stage, but with the emergence of more products next year, it is still necessary to test how "rigid" the just need of folding screen mobile phones is, and the maturity of the supply chain can reach several points.

Editor: Lu Taoran