BYD has also raised prices again! Notice that Ray uses both "also" and "again" here, but this sentence is by no means a sick sentence. The reason why "again" is used is because this is not the first time that BYD has raised the price of new cars this year. As early as January 21, BYD Automobile adjusted the official guidance price of new energy models related to Dynasty Network and Ocean Network, with an increase of 1,000-7,000 yuan.
On March 15, BYD officially said that affected by the continuous sharp rise in raw material prices, BYD Automobile will adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to Dynasty Network and Ocean Network, ranging from 3,000 to 6,000 yuan. The price adjustment will take effect from 00:00 on March 16, and customers who have signed a deposit before that time will not be affected by this price adjustment.
The reason why "also" is used is because in just 5 days, Tesla has made two price increases. On March 10, Tesla's official website in China showed that the starting price of model 3 high-performance version, Model Y long-endurance version and high-performance version was all raised by 10,000 yuan.
On March 15, the price of Tesla's two main models rose again, of which the Model 3 high-performance version rose by 18,000 yuan, and the starting price of the Model Y long-endurance version and the high-performance version rose by 18,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan, respectively.
Obviously, the price increase operation between BYD and Tesla cannot be said to be familiar, but can only be said to be the same. Unlike Tesla, Tesla's price increased by at least 28,000 yuan in 5 days, while BYD's price increased by at least 4,000 yuan in 2 months.
It is worth mentioning that due to the rising prices of raw materials, the shortage of chips, and the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and other unfavorable environmental factors for new energy vehicles, there are currently more than 20 car companies, and more than 50 new energy vehicles have announced price increases. With Tesla and BYD rising prices again, the new energy automobile industry is about to usher in a second wave of price increases.
So the question is, is the new energy vehicle that is not cheap now worth buying?
Pure electric vehicles will only increase in price in the short term, not reduce prices
First of all, to be clear, buying is definitely worth buying. If there is a demand for new energy vehicles in the near future, then it must be the sooner you buy the better.
The reason why Xiao Lei thinks so is mainly because there are still many consumers who believe that the development of new energy vehicles has just started, and there is still a lot of room for price reduction and improvement in terms of price and technology. Little Ray thinks it is true, but it is not entirely correct.
In Xiao Lei's view, last year should be the best time to buy new energy vehicles. Because the automobile industry has fallen into the chip crisis and the shortage of power batteries, these problems have not been reflected in the form of price increases on the consumer side.
Of course, the past is over, don't mention it, it is not too late to buy new energy vehicles now. If we want to find out why Xiaolei sells cars early, we must first find out what is the root cause of the price increase of new energy vehicle companies.
For consumers, the most obvious reason for the price increase of new energy vehicles is the decline of 30% of the subsidies for new energy vehicles. In fact, since the Chinese government began to implement new energy vehicle consumption subsidies in 2010, the decline in subsidies has become an expected trend. With the development and popularization of new energy vehicles, subsidies may only become less and less.
By the end of this year, although many car companies have called for the postponement of the cancellation of new energy vehicle subsidies due to the general environment, the new energy vehicle subsidies will inevitably be completely cancelled at the end of this year as scheduled. It can be seen that at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, it is very likely that there will be a round of collective price increases by new energy vehicle companies.
In addition, in the era of intelligent new energy vehicles, chips and power batteries are also crucial for new energy vehicles. Unfortunately, the shortage of both chips and power batteries is unlikely to be solved in the past two years.
In terms of chips, in 2021, when the chip shortage is the most serious, the price of an ESP (body electronic stability system) core chip has risen from about 20 yuan to 2800 yuan, and the price has increased by 140 times. At present, the smallest price increase of most automotive chips has also doubled several times.
The problem of chip shortage is reflected in car companies, which directly leads to large-scale production suspension and production reduction of car companies. Auto Forecast Solutions' forecast data shows that the cumulative production reduction in the global automotive market will reach 11.324 million units in 2021, resulting in a loss of about 1.3 trillion yuan for the global automotive industry, of which the cumulative production reduction in the Chinese market is expected to reach 2.148 million units.
In terms of battery raw materials, the relevant person in charge of a lithium carbonate raw material production enterprise located in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, revealed that the price of lithium carbonate has risen all the way from 2020. At that time, the price of lithium carbonate was basically maintained at about 50,000 yuan / ton, but after more than a year, it has now risen to 500,000 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to ten times a year, and the price has an upward trend.
There is a saying in the mainland that "having money can make ghosts grind", but this sentence is not very feasible on the two things of shortage of chips and battery raw materials. Even in the case of soaring prices, the raw materials for chips and batteries in the automotive industry are still priceless.
Some merchants frankly said that the current chip inventory is less than hundreds, and it is basically impossible for downstream companies to want to purchase a large number of dollars. Some chips, even if ordered now, may not be available by 2024. In terms of power batteries, GAC Group and Xiaopeng Automobile even broke up with the power battery giant Ningde Era because of production capacity problems, and turned around to China New China, which has relatively sufficient production capacity.
There is also a saying in the mainland called "things are scarce and expensive", which is quite suitable for the current new energy automobile industry. The phrase "scarce is expensive" has been vividly reflected in the soaring price of battery raw materials and chips.
It should be known that from the perspective of the price increase at the supply chain end and the price increase on the consumer side, the current soaring prices of chip and battery raw materials, as well as most of the pressure of production capacity shortage, are still borne by new energy vehicle companies. If the price increase of chips and power batteries is beyond the scope of car companies, then the price increase of new energy vehicles on the consumer side will become an inevitable occurrence.
Under such circumstances, do you still want to buy new energy vehicles "holding money for purchase"?
Give up, pure electric vehicles will not undergo qualitative changes in the short term
In terms of technology, limited by power battery technology, today's pure electric vehicles have encountered bottlenecks that are difficult to break through in a short period of time. Therefore, the "wait" party that is eager to buy a car really does not need to wait any longer. From the technical point of view of power batteries, whether it is a relatively low-cost lithium iron phosphate battery or a ternary lithium battery with the main endurance, they have not had much breakthrough development in the chemical level in the past two years.
It is undeniable that the endurance of new energy vehicles in the past two years has indeed improved, but most of these improvements have been achieved through physical optimization methods such as CTP. It should be known that the position of a new energy vehicle that can accommodate the power battery is very limited, so the power battery endurance optimized by CTP technology is also easy to encounter development bottlenecks.
In terms of safety, the vast majority of new energy vehicles have also been able to meet the national standard of "no fire after the thermal runaway of the power battery", but the mainstream power battery safety technology is still achieved by wearing thicker "armor" for the battery, with a more efficient cooling system, and a smarter battery management system.
The endurance and safety performance of new energy vehicles also need to start from the chemical properties of power batteries, and the current optimization through physical form is at best a symptom rather than a cure. So, why should power battery suppliers and new energy vehicle companies sacrifice their lives to the end? It is too difficult to enhance the endurance and safety of power batteries from the chemical level, which is tantamount to setting off a revolution in power battery technology.
As early as a few years ago, or even a dozen years ago, the battery giants have begun to develop stronger solid-state batteries and graphene batteries. However, due to the immature products and the high cost, these products that can change the pattern of power battery technology are still in the laboratory and still have not been officially launched.
In Xiao Lei's view, the power battery closest to "qualitative change" at present is Tesla's 4680 battery. It is understood that the energy density of the 4680 battery has increased by 5 times compared with Tesla's current battery, the endurance has increased by 16%, and the output power has increased by 6 times, but the cost has dropped by 14%.
However, the 4680 battery is also essentially a ternary lithium battery. Regardless of whether Tesla and its power battery suppliers can quickly roll out the production line for 4680 batteries, in the case of a shortage of power battery raw materials, how to purchase more power battery raw materials is the first problem that Tesla will face.
Obviously, if you want new energy vehicles to usher in a transformative upgrade in power batteries, or wait until the production capacity of battery raw materials is no longer tight, at least you have to stay up for a few more years. For most consumers who hold coins to buy, a few years is almost a car replacement cycle. Want to be a party that holds a currency and waits for the technological change of new energy vehicles? You don't have to.
On the other hand, after watching Tesla's several price cuts in the past year, many people think that there is still a lot of room for price reduction for new energy vehicles. For such consumers, Xiao Lei's view is: think too much.
Buy it again at a reduced price? Think too much!
It has to be said that Tesla has built a unique business model based on energy and data, resulting in its bicycle cost can be directly reflected in the price of the model. Previously, the main reason why Tesla was able to reduce prices several times in a row was that its production costs had decreased, and now Tesla's continuous price increases are actually the same reason.
Sales of new energy vehicles have soared, and the demand for power battery raw materials by car companies will only become higher and higher, but the exploration and mining of power battery raw materials is difficult to speed up because of the hot sales of new energy vehicles. Since the supply of raw materials for power batteries will become more and more tight, the price of new energy vehicles reflected in the consumer side will only become more and more expensive.
No one wants to spend more money when buying a car. In 2023, the new energy vehicle subsidies that the mainland has been subsidizing for 12 years will be completely cancelled, in addition, due to the shortage of battery raw materials, the situation will only become more intense, and its market situation will only be more rising, and the new energy vehicle power battery technology will not change qualitatively.
Based on the above reasons, XiaoLei can conclude that the future price increase will not only be Tesla and BYD, in the current new energy vehicle environment, the price increase of the whole industry chain will become a major trend in the new energy automobile industry. It is not ruled out that Tesla and BYD will have three or four degrees of price increases in the future.
It should be known that although the subsidy for new energy vehicles only affects the domestic new energy vehicle market, the tight supply of raw materials for power batteries has enveloped the entire field of new energy vehicles. It is foreseeable that in the future, as long as the global enterprises involved in power batteries are involved, they will wave the banner of price increases.
Since price increases cannot be avoided, and new energy vehicle technology cannot undergo qualitative changes in a short period of time, why don't we buy new energy vehicles before the price rises?
Note: The material for this article comes from the Internet