Lead
Motor drive control system is the main execution structure in the exercise of new energy vehicles, and the drive motor and its control system are one of the core components of new energy vehicles (battery, motor, electronic control).
Source: Orient Securities
1. The flat line of the motor brings a new round of technical iteration, and the penetration rate of the flat line motor is expected to increase rapidly in the future
1.1 Drive motor is an important part of the new energy industry, permanent magnet synchronous motor has dominated
Drive motors are an important part of the new energy vehicle industry chain. Motor drive control system is the main execution structure in the exercise of new energy vehicles, drive motor and its control system is one of the core components of new energy vehicles (battery, motor, electronic control), its driving characteristics directly determine the main performance indicators such as climbing, acceleration and maximum speed of the car, and is an important component of electric vehicles. Taking the mainstream permanent magnet synchronous motor as an example, the motor is mainly composed of a stator, a rotor and a mechanical structure, and the key components are the stator and rotor.
Permanent magnet synchronous motors and AC asynchronous motors have become the mainstream choices in the passenger car field. The permanent magnet of the permanent magnet synchronous motor refers to the addition of a permanent magnet when manufacturing the rotor of the electric machine, so that the performance of the motor is further improved, which is also the biggest difference between the permanent magnet synchronous motor and the AC asynchronous motor. The so-called synchronization refers to the rotational speed of the rotor in the motor and the current frequency of the stator windings are always consistent. In the AC asynchronous motor, because the rotor is always "catching up" the speed of the stator rotating magnetic field, and in order to be able to cut the magnetic induction line and generate induced current, the speed of the rotor is always slower than the speed of the stator rotating magnetic field, which also forms an asynchronous operation, that is, an asynchronous induction motor.
Permanent magnet synchronous motors and AC asynchronous motors have their own advantages. Permanent magnet synchronous motor itself has the advantages of torque density, power density, high efficiency, good speed regulation performance, etc., coupled with its own small size, light weight and other advantages, but it is not without shortcomings, in addition to the cost of raw materials, it will have the problem of magnetic attenuation at high temperatures, which is why small and medium-sized pure electric vehicles can not carry out long-term high-speed cruise. Relatively speaking, the AC asynchronous motor has the advantages of simple structure, high reliability, good high-speed performance and acceleration performance; this is also a problem that some electric sports cars and medium-sized SUVs that are advertised as performance will prefer it, such as Tesla model S, model X, Weilai ES8, etc. are used. However, relatively speaking, its shortcomings are reflected in the low torque density, power density, and efficiency density, and it is also accompanied by the problems of large volume, heavy weight and large heat generation. Overall, it can be understood that the electric vehicle with permanent magnet synchronous motor has a relatively better battery life, and the electric vehicle equipped with an AC induction motor has better acceleration performance.
Permanent magnet synchronous motors account for nearly 95% of the domestic drive motor market. Permanent magnet synchronous motor due to our country's advantages in rare earth resources, as well as permanent magnet synchronous motor power density, high peak efficiency, small size, light weight, diversified structure and wide range of applications, permanent magnet synchronous motor in the domestic installed capacity of rapid increase, before 2021 November domestic permanent magnet synchronous motor installed capacity of 2.69 million units, the installed capacity of 94%, in the new energy drive motor market occupies an absolute dominant position.
1.2 Flat wire winding motor has obvious advantages and great potential for technological improvement
One of the technical trends we judge to drive motors is the winding flat wire (Hair-pin motor). The overall goal of the motor is to increase efficiency and power density, reduce volume and weight. The distinctive feature of the flat wire winding motor is the flat copper wire in the stator winding, which is first made into a shape similar to the hairpin, penetrated into the stator slot, and then welded to the end of the hairpin at the other end. By applying a flat copper wire with a larger cross-sectional area, the motor slot full rate is improved, which has the advantages of high power/torque density, high efficiency, better heat dissipation performance, etc., and it is easier to realize automated production to meet the requirements for high product consistency after the outbreak of the new energy passenger car market. But at the same time, the large-scale application of flat wire motors also needs to overcome some shortcomings, such as low yield rate, speed can not go up, standardization is difficult and patent barriers.
The flat wire has a high slot full rate, and the high energy conversion efficiency brings battery cost savings. The power of the motor is positively correlated with the copper content, and the increase in copper wire fill by 20-30% under the same volume means that the output conversion power is expected to increase by 20-30%. The flat wire motor has a high slot full rate, and its pure copper slot full rate reaches 70%, while the traditional round wire is only about 40%; 65% of the energy loss of the motor comes from copper consumption, because the copper wire required by the flat wire motor is shorter than the circular motor of the same power, the winding resistance is reduced, the copper consumption is reduced, and the higher conversion efficiency is brought. In addition, in urban congestion (low speed and high torque), flat line motors are 10% more efficient than round wires. The high tank full rate brings high efficiency area area, increased vehicle road condition test WLTP range, and reduced battery capacity with the same mileage, which can effectively reduce the vehicle cost by 15%.
The flat line has good heat dissipation and improves the high temperature dynamics. Due to the tight contact of the conductor, the gap in the groove is reduced, the heat conductivity and heat dissipation coefficient are improved, and the thermal conductivity between the windings under the high groove full rate is 1.5 times that of the low groove full rate; the AC resistance decreases at low and medium speeds, and the temperature rise of the round line stator is reduced by 18%, the thermal resistance in the groove is reduced, and the heat conduction is better; and the groove full rate is high, with stronger power torque, the heat dissipation in the stator groove is improved, the heat resistance in the cogging is reduced, and the temperature rise can be reduced by about 8 to 12%, and the whole vehicle can be reduced under lower temperature rise conditions for better acceleration performance.
The flat line motor has a higher power density and a stronger vehicle power. Flat line motor slot full rate is high, torque density is increased, effective volume is reduced, torque is increased, and power is increased, power density is increased (for example, SAIC's second-generation EDU high-power Hair-pin motor increases power density by 20%), and the motor torque output capacity is strengthened, further improving power density and vehicle power performance. The power density of the round line motor is about 3.5kw/kg, which can no longer meet the power density of the "13th Five-Year Plan" to meet the requirements of 4.0kw/kg, and the power density of the flat line motor of the current leading enterprise is about 5kw/kg, so the flat line motor is an inevitable trend of future development. In addition, the flat wire motor takes advantage of its large end conductor gap, the cooling oil can directly penetrate into the winding end, absorb the heat of each conductor, reduce the motor winding temperature by more than 68%, and greatly improve the power density and torque density level of the motor.
The electromagnetic noise of the flat wire motor is low, and the whole vehicle is quieter. The conductor stress and winding rigidity of the flat wire motor are larger, the armature has better stiffness, the modulus of elasticity is improved, the modality of the object changes, which is more conducive to the occurrence of impedance resonance, and has a suppressive effect on armature noise. In addition, cogging torque is an inherent problem with permanent magnet motors, and while it does not increase or decrease the average effective torque of the motor, it can cause speed fluctuations, motor vibration and noise (NVH). The flat wire winding is inserted through the core end, there is no need to embed the wire from the slot, the electromagnetic design is relatively small in the size of the slot, the motor cogging torque can be reduced by 19%, the NVH can be reduced by 12%, and the electromagnetic noise is further suppressed.
The small size of the flat line brings high integration efficiency, which is in line with the development trend of all-in-one electric drive. Flat wire groove full rate is high, winding method is more advanced, easier to cut, winding end height can be reduced by 15% up and down, easier compression, the same power under the size of the motor is smaller; compared to the traditional round wire copper wire winding, the effective volume of the flat wire core drops, the axial can be shortened by 15%, the outer diameter can be shortened by 10%, the amount of copper can be reduced by about 20%, the overall weight can be reduced by 10%, in line with the current trend of motor lightweight and miniaturization.
1.3 Mainstream car companies have replaced the flat line motor, and the penetration rate of the flat line motor will increase rapidly
Among the top 15 models in new energy vehicle sales in 2020, only some models such as Euler R1, Ideal ONE, and NIO ES6 use flat-line motors, and the penetration rate of flat-line motors in 2020 is less than 10%, the penetration rate of superimposed new energy vehicles is 5.4%, and the comprehensive penetration rate of flat lines is less than 1%.
Since 2021, the penetration rate of flat wire motors has increased rapidly. In 2021, Tesla and GAC were equipped with flat wire motors, BYD DMI adopted flat wire motors, and new models of SAIC and Great Wall were also converted to flat wire motors, and among the top 40 models sold in a single month in November 2021, the models with flat wire windings reached 16 models. We estimate that the penetration rate of the top 40 models sold in the flat line reached 31.1%, and since the top 40 models sold in a single month in November accounted for 76.6% of the total passenger car sales in the month, it is expected that the current flat line motor penetration rate has exceeded 23.9%. (High-end models with lower sales have higher penetration rates of flat lines)
Follow-up to be listed potential explosive models ET5, ET7, Zhiji, Krypton, etc. are also the use of flat wire motor, considering the high power density of the flat line, high energy conversion efficiency, good heat dissipation and other advantages, it is expected that the penetration rate of the flat wire motor will increase rapidly in the next 3-5 years.
1.4 Dual motor configuration increase, the global drive motor market is expected to reach 74 billion yuan in 2025
The performance upgrade of new energy vehicles is imminent, and the proportion of dual motor arrangements is rising. At present, high-end models are mostly equipped with single motor versions and dual motor versions, single drive motors are mostly found in low-end models, pure electric vehicles will drive the motor front or rear, hybrid models will generally drive the motor front; dual drive motors are generally high-end models, pure electric, plug-in hybrid and extended range are involved, and a drive motor is deployed before and after. At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rising rapidly, and with the increase in the recognition of electric vehicles on the consumer side, we believe that the upgrade trend of new energy vehicles in terms of performance will drive the demand for four-wheel drive dual-motor, or even three-motor versions of models, and the market share of dual-motor models may further rise.
The new energy vehicle market has exploded, and the installed capacity of drive motors has grown rapidly. Thanks to the outbreak of the domestic new energy vehicle market, in recent years, the installed capacity of new energy drive motors in China has achieved rapid growth, and the domestic new energy vehicle sales volume will exceed 3.3 million in 2021, assuming that the penetration rate of dual-motor models reaches 12%, it is expected that the installed capacity of domestic drive motors will reach about 3.7 million units in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 150%.
In the better growth environment of new energy vehicles, it is expected that the global new energy drive motor market size will reach 74 billion yuan in 2025. Driven by multiple factors such as double integration, carbon emissions, and model progress, the high-speed growth of new energy vehicles in the medium and long term is more certain; in the long run, longer battery life will become the mainstream trend of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that 9.25 million vehicles will be sold worldwide and 5.3 million vehicles in China in 2022; more than 22 million vehicles in the world and more than 9.45 million vehicles in China in 2025; and the annual sales penetration rate of electric vehicles in 2030 will be close to 45%. In the medium and long-term process, electric vehicles to fuel vehicle substitution to form a two-way feedback, electric vehicle positive feedback, supporting more mature, the use experience continues to improve; fuel vehicle negative feedback, supporting contraction, the use experience continues to decline, in this context, new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate the realization of the replacement of fuel vehicles. With the increase in downstream demand and the increase in the proportion of dual motors brought about by the performance upgrade of the future motor, the new energy drive motor market is expected to usher in a golden growth period in the future. (Source: Future Think Tank)
2, flat motor with multiple barriers, advantages of enterprises are expected to amplify competitive advantages
2.1 Flat wire motors have multiple barriers: complex production processes, import-dependent equipment, and high raw material requirements
The most important processes in the production of flat wire motors are coil forming, twisting, welding and other technologies. The windings of the flat copper wire motor can be divided into I-pin, Hair-pin, Wave-pin and other 3 kinds according to its flat wire shape, because many OEMs have strict requirements for the shape and size of the drive motor, and the end of the Hairpin motor Copper wire radial arrangement is more tight, so at present more than 90% of manufacturers choose to use hairpin motor, that is, first make the winding into a shape similar to the hairpin, wear it into the stator slot, and then weld the end of the "hairpin" at the other end. The flat wire motor represented by Hari-pin has a high barrier in the production process, equipment and raw materials.
2.1.1 Flat wire motor research and development design is difficult, the production process is complicated
The production process is complex, and more than a dozen processes are formed at once. Flat wire motor now mostly uses the second generation of axial winding technology (such as Hair-pin), the production process is complex and complex, the precision and stress requirements of the winding composition type are extremely high, the key processes such as hair-pin molding, automatic twisting and other technical difficulties, more than a dozen processes need to be molded at one time, increasing the difficulty; and the AC impedance increases, and the conversion efficiency is reduced at high speed. At the same time, there may be a "skin-setting effect" in the process practice, resulting in the waste of the intermediate area, the surrounding current is large, the heat is obvious, and the efficiency is reduced.
Serial design is difficult. The design scheme is not uniform, and once the stator winding is determined, it is difficult to change, and it is difficult to serialize. The design scheme of different car companies is not the same, the stator is the core of the motor design, after the stator size is determined, the wire type and size change at any point, and it is necessary to customize the expensive tooling mold, and the compatibility is low.
There are many patent barriers. At present, the patent of flat wire motor is mainly in Europe, The United States and Japanese enterprises, and Chinese companies have fewer patents. At present, the production technology, equipment and patents of such motors are mainly led by developed countries such as Japan, Italy and Germany, such as Denso's motors manufactured by Toyota's fourth-generation Prius, and Remy's HVH250 series motors (acquired by BorgWarner in 2015) (high-voltage issuing card stator winding technology) were applied to GM Chevrolet's VOLT in 2007, and these two companies applied for patents for the motors produced. Since 2018, domestic electric vehicle suppliers such as Shenzhen Huichuan Technology Co., Ltd. and Songzheng Electric Vehicle Technology Co., Ltd. have also successively launched their own flat copper wire motor products.
2.1.2 Flat wire motor production equipment requirements are high, mainly relying on imports
Flat wire motor production equipment is highly demanding, mainly relying on imports. Flat wire motor has high requirements for product consistency and technical difficulty, and requires investment in high precision automation servo equipment, welding equipment, Hair-Pin line forming equipment and tooling molds. The investment in the production line of flat wire motor is 2-5 times that of the round line, an imported production line is about 120 million yuan, and the domestic price is also 2-50 million. Foreign countries have formed a relatively mature flat wire motor industry chain, of which the main suppliers of flat wire motor are The United States Remy Motor, Japan Denso, Germany Schaeffler and so on; The main suppliers of flat wire motor manufacturing equipment are TECNOMATIC in Italy, ATOP in Italy, GROB Group in Germany, Odawara Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. in Japan and Miba Group in Austria. In recent years, a wave of research and development of flat-line motors has been set off in China, but there is still a big gap compared with mature foreign technologies and industrial chains. HUAYU Automobile, a parts company under SAIC Motor, achieved partial shipments of flat-line motors in 2017, but most domestic manufacturers mainly rely on foreign imported equipment to solve process problems.
2.1.3 Upgrading the flat wire will increase the requirements for raw materials such as upstream copper wire and coating accordingly
Upgrading the flat line has correspondingly increased the requirements for raw materials such as upstream copper wire and coating. Enameled flat copper wire is the core component of the flat wire motor, according to the different power, a drive motor use of about 7-10kg, accounting for about 17% of the overall value of the flat line permanent magnet motor. Another problem brought about by the upgrade from circular wires to flat rectangular section wires is that the wire manufacturing technology upstream of the industrial chain also needs to be updated synchronously.
The flat wire quality relies on high-quality oxygen-free copper rods. The copper rod of the raw material of the flat line is divided into a low oxygen rod and an oxygen-free rod, and the oxygen content less than 450PPM is a low oxygen copper rod, and the oxygen content is less than 20PPM is an oxygen-free copper rod. The toughness, processability, resistivity and appearance of oxygen-free copper rods are superior to other copper rods. Round wire ports can be linked with terminal blocks (screws or rings), and flat wire ports are issued and need to be welded (laser welded or argon arc welded). Welding will be accompanied by high temperature, if the copper raw material contains more oxygen, welding is prone to arc, resulting in poor welding effect, paint film is easy to be injured. Therefore, the anaerobic content of high-quality flat wire on copper rod is significantly higher than that of ordinary enameled wire, and a strong raw material supply chain is an important guarantee for the large-scale supply of flat wire in the future.
Flat line coating is more difficult. The copper wire must have elasticity, but the rebound after bending needs to make the electromagnetic wire insulation layer not damaged; the flat wire will produce non-uniform shrinkage after the insulation coating is dried, and it is easy to deform and produce four corners to become thinner, affecting the insulation, and it is necessary to improve the coating thickness that is thicker at the R angle; the paint film coating at the flat line R corner is difficult to coat, and it is difficult to ensure the uniformity of the insulation layer; and after the flat line bends into a hairpin, the stress at the R angle is concentrated, which is easy to cause the coating layer to be damaged, so the accuracy and quality requirements of the copper wire and its coating are very high.
2.2 Under the trend of a new round of technological upgrading, advantageous enterprises are expected to amplify their competitive advantages
System integration is the development trend of the industry, and the development of the core components of the drive motor will still be completed by the core motor enterprises. The electric drive system of new energy vehicles includes three major assemblies of drive motors, controllers and transmissions, and the power supply assembly includes converters, distribution boxes, vehicle chargers, etc. Because many components or functional parts such as electric drives and power supplies can be integrated together to save space, and some parts can be used publicly, so more and more OEMs are currently considering the integration of electric drive three-in-one, and even electric drive and power supply assembly six-in-one. However, considering that after the integration of the entire system, it involves the connection between the motor and the reducer, vibration, etc., especially to match the vehicle transmission system and some needs, the current industry has not yet formed a high-quality program for the integration of the way, and because of the integration in the car chassis, the integration of the future system is more likely to be controlled by the head car company with strong development capabilities. In addition, the continuous upgrading of several major assembly products of the drive system requires continuous investment in higher R&D expenditures, and it is difficult for the automakers to focus on the independent development of all parts, so under the trend of integration, the development of the stator rotor of the core components of the drive motor will still be completed by the core motor enterprises.
The domestic motor market presents a situation in which OEMs compete with professional third parties. Among the automakers, BYD, as the first car company in China to comprehensively transform new energy vehicles, masters the core technologies of batteries, motors and electronic control, and drives all of which are independently supported; in addition, Tesla, Volkswagen, BAIC New Energy, Chery New Energy, and Weilai Automobile are also independently supported by electric drive system subsidiaries or departments. Domestic professional third parties mainly from other motors transformation, relying on the accumulation of technology in the original field, quickly developed a motor system suitable for vehicle use, become an important supplier, such as Founder Motor, Ningbo Shuanglin, etc.; and the new energy drive motor manufacturers represented by Jingjin Electric and Shanghai Dajun have an earlier layout and deeper technology, and have also become the main suppliers. In addition, overseas suppliers such as United Automotive Electronics and BorgWarner also occupy an important position among third parties.
In the first 11 months of 2021, 4 of the top 10 market share are OEMs, the total share accounts for 51% of the top 10, 6 are professional third parties, the total share accounts for 49% of the top 10, in general, the share of car companies and third parties is almost 55, the share of car companies is higher, but if you consider the third-party motor companies accessed by tier-2 identity, the market share distribution is expected to be 3:7, and car companies still firmly control the system integration level, but cooperate with third parties in a more open attitude. With the mass production of many new power brand models, the market share of professional third-party companies will continue to increase.
As the general trend of the motor industry, flat line motors are actively laid out by OEMs and third-party manufacturers. At present, overseas enterprises are at the forefront of the layout, and UMC, Bosch, BorgWarner, etc. have achieved stable production and batch supply. The time for the development of flat wire motors in China is slightly late, but the research and development is resolute, and in the past two years, flat wire motors have become the development direction of passenger car drive motors pursued in the industry. Domestic head suppliers have also begun to enter the field of flat line motor research and development. At present, more than 10 car companies and third-party companies have developed flat wire motors.
Huayu Automobile is the earliest mass production of flat wire motor enterprises in China, in 2017 mass production of flat wire motor installed to Roewe model, has now developed to the third generation, winding technology has been from 2 layers to 8 layers, power density is three times the first generation of circular motors, the latest release of SAIC ER6 equipped with Huayu Electric 8-layer flat motor; at present, Huayu Electric has accumulated 200,000 flat motor. Founder Motor introduced Niu Mingkui as a postdoctoral fellow, quickly intervened in the research and development of flat wire motor, successfully developed the leading high power density flat wire motor in China, and carried out innovative design and development from flat wire winding method, electromagnetic scheme and structural design; And in the product research and development stage, at the same time with partners to carry out process research and development, the development of China's completely independent intellectual property rights of the flat wire motor automation production line. In addition, Tianjin Songzheng Motor, Dayang Electric, BYD and other enterprises have also made certain progress in the field of flat line motors, and have been applied in some models.
As an emerging market with great growth potential, flat wire motors are expected to expand rapidly in the next few years. In the context of technological upgrading and raising the threshold, the industry may usher in a reshuffle. Enterprises that lay out flat-line motors in advance will have a first-mover advantage in the new market, greatly increase market share, and make huge upfront investments such as dilution of scale benefits and research and development, and smaller enterprises will be difficult to make profits. The professional third-party motor market will be divided among a small number of enterprises, thereby increasing the concentration. In addition, the technical threshold and capital investment of flat-line motors also make car companies more inclined to cooperate with third parties to produce or purchase motors for cost and efficiency considerations, and it is expected that enterprises with technical advantages will amplify their competitive advantages under the trend of technological upgrading and continuously improve their market share. (Source: Future Think Tank)
3, the drive motor profit inflection point has arrived, with the first-mover advantage of professional motor enterprises are expected to be strong Hengqiang
3.1 Why was it difficult for the motor industry to achieve profitability in the past?
In the past few years, the drive motor industry can not be profitable mainly due to the extremely high research and development costs and no explosive models, reflected in the development of a model needs to be designed separately production line, motor companies for a single model to pay the average research and development costs of about 15 million yuan, if calculated according to the new car cycle of 4 years, then the annual level of research and development costs of about 3.75 million yuan. We have found through calculations that only when the annual sales of the developed models reach more than 40,000 vehicles, a single motor can achieve profitability, if you consider the overall sales to a larger scale after other expenses can be effectively diluted, in fact, the annual sales of the developed bicycles need to reach a higher level to ensure profitability.
Before 2020, the number of models that can reach 40,000 in the domestic new energy vehicle market is less than 20 models, if you deduct Tesla, BYD and other self-powered car companies, in fact, the number of models that meet the requirements is very small, which means that there has been no high-quality, stable sales of explosive models in the past few years, so the motor industry presents a market dispersion, low revenue of each company, high expense rate, and also accompanied by the bankruptcy and restructuring of some traditional new forces. It is difficult for companies with strong profitability to appear in the drive motor industry.
3.2 Raw material prices soared, and short-term drive motor costs were under pressure
The proportion of raw materials for drive motors is high. Taking The refined electric as an example to split the cost of the permanent magnet synchronous motor, the direct material accounted for the highest proportion of the cost composition, close to 80%; the manufacturing cost accounted for about 13%, and the high-end products were relatively slightly improved, up to about 15%. Among the direct materials, the permanent magnet (NdFeB is the most widely used) costs 45%, the highest proportion, the stator rotor core (the main raw material is silicon steel sheet) accounts for 24%, and the stator winding (the main raw material is copper wire) accounts for 6%.
The main raw materials with the highest proportion of drive motors are NdFeB permanent magnets, silicon steel sheets and enameled wires. NdFeB permanent magnets have the characteristics of small volume, light weight and strong magnetism, and are the rare earth permanent magnet materials with the best performance and the widest application range in the current permanent magnet motors. According to industry practice, the sum of the intrinsic orthodontic force (kOe) and the maximum magnetic energy product (MGOe) is greater than 60 sintered NdFeB permanent magnet materials, which belong to high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials, so the current new energy drive motors mainly use UH and EH series high-grade NdFeB permanent magnets as raw materials.
According to the Dadi Bear prospectus, the production process of high-performance sintered NdFeB permanent magnet materials can be divided into two stages: sintering process to form blanks and product processing processes, and the main raw material of sintered NdFeB permanent magnets is NdFeB rapidly condensed thin strip alloy sheets with rare earth metals as the main cost, mainly rare earth metal praseodymium (Pr) and neodymium (Nd). The pricing principle of NdFeB quick-condensing thin strip alloy sheet is "rare earth metal price + processing fee", and the main component of NdFeB quick-condensing thin strip alloy sheet is pure iron and praseodymium neodymium and other rare earth metals, of which praseodymium neodymium-ydymium-blended metal accounts for about 60% of the cost of NdFeB quick-condensing thin strip alloy sheet. In 2021, due to the surge in the overall downstream demand for new energy vehicles, wind power, industrial motors, etc., the price of praseodymium neodymium neodymium oxide will increase by more than 100% per year, corresponding to the rapid rise in the price of high-performance NdFeB, which will bring greater cost pressure to downstream motor companies.
The main raw materials of the new energy drive motor stator rotor are mainly high-grade non-oriented electrical steel (silicon content is generally greater than 0.5%), and its magnetic and mechanical properties will affect the service effect of the drive motor, so the future new energy vehicles have gradually improved their requirements for power performance and stability performance, and the requirements for vehicle-free electrical steel are also constantly improving. Car enterprise certification for raw material certification cycle is long, the barrier is high, the current domestic enterprises with new energy vehicle silicon steel mainly shougang, Baosteel and TISCO three enterprises.
Affected by the upstream price increase, the cost of short-term drive motors is under pressure. Take the current mainstream 160-200kw drive motor as an example, the main raw materials used in the electrical steel weight is about 60-70 kg, the permanent magnet weight is about 3-4 kg, the flat copper wire is about 9-12kg, affected by the rise in the price of raw materials such as rare earth, copper, steel and other raw materials in the upstream in 2021, the cost of driving motor materials has risen sharply, according to the recent quotation, the total cost of major raw materials such as silicon steel, permanent magnets, copper wires and so on has reached 2100 yuan, superimposed on other materials and manufacturing, labor costs and other costs, The overall cost of the drive motor reached 3049 yuan, which is much higher than the price of the motor, and the cost pressure of the drive motor is extremely high under this raw material price system. In order to cope with cost pressure, motor companies have begun to ensure the supply of major upstream raw materials in the form of locking prices with upstream prices, and at the same time began to adjust product prices to transmit cost pressure to terminal car companies, and we expect that the profit of drive motor enterprises will usher in significant improvement in 2022.
3.3 The inflection point of the profitability of the drive motor has arrived, and the professional motor enterprises with the first-mover advantage are expected to be strong Hengqiang
Since 2020, with the rise of brands such as Tesla, BYD and Wei Xiaoli, the scale effect of the industry has begun to appear. With the slowdown in the trend of raw material price increases in 2022, some companies have transmitted cost pressure through the price mechanism, and the superimposed scale effect has brought about a rapid decline in the overall expense ratio, we believe that third-party motor companies with first-mover advantages in technology and clients are expected to quickly increase the scale of revenue and achieve a turnaround from loss to profit first, and further consolidate their advantages in technology and cost through cooperation with high-quality car companies to expand more market shares.
3.4 Analysis of key companies
Founder motor - third-party drive motor faucet
The company's predecessor Lishui Founder, the main sewing machine motor, in 2006 expanded the car seat motor, into BMW Mercedes-Benz and Tesla and other well-known OEMs. In 2012, the new energy electric drive division was established, the transformation of large power drive motors, in 2015, the continuous merger and acquisition of Gaokerun, Shanghai Haineng and Hangzhou Devos, supporting commercial vehicle motors and research and development of passenger car drive motors. In 2018, Dr. Niu Mingkui, a technical expert at Schaeffler, a well-known German auto parts company, was introduced to drive motors for passenger cars, focusing on drive motors and motor stator rotors, and being a reliable and reliable close partner for motors and motor core components of OEMs and system suppliers. At present, the company's drive motor products have successively entered the supply chain system of SAIC-GM-Wuling, Xiaopeng Automobile, Geely Automobile, Weilai Automobile and Dongfeng Motor, becoming the main supplier of Hongguang mini and Xiaopeng P7. At the same time, new expansion customers are expected to release model kits in the next 2 years.
Drive motor supplier leader, the company quickly cut into the supply chain of explosive models! At present, the top three motor industry shipments are Tesla, BYD and the company, considering BYD and Tesla self-powered machines, the company has become a third-party motor leader, and the market share of third-party motors has exceeded 30%. The company was the first to supply Wuling mini EV volume, and at the same time in 2021 has been stable supply of Baojun, Xiaopeng P7, Chery, Geely and other models, in 2022 will begin to supply new models such as Weilai ET7 and other sales are expected to explode, the company is full of orders in hand.
Wolong electric drive - the domestic industrial motor leader, EV motor rapid growth
Wolong electric drive is a leading enterprise in domestic industrial motor manufacturing, and the EV motor field is strategically bound to ZF and has begun to take the initiative. The company's products cover many fields such as low-voltage motors, high-voltage motors, micro-motors and EV motors. The company started from the low-voltage motor at the earliest, mainly in the field of low power; the field of high-voltage motors through a series of acquisitions and integration, the business has covered pumps, fans, compressors, etc., has grown into a global leader in the field of high-voltage motors; micro-motor business development earlier, in 2005 with Panasonic joint venture, after the acquisition of Haier motor business, the main application of consumer categories, including 3C, home appliances, automotive motors (wipers, wipers, air conditioners, etc.), customers mainly concentrated in overseas high-end market Daikin, Hitachi, Mitsubishi, etc. In the field of EV motors, the company began to sign a fixed-point letter with ZF in 2019 to provide it with a stator rotor, and then the two sides established a joint venture company for new energy vehicle motors to form a strategic binding. In the field of passenger cars, the company relies on ZF has successfully landed mercedes-Benz EVA platform (pure electricity), BMW and Porsche (plug-in hybrid) projects, and in 2020 began to take the initiative, and constantly obtained orders from Germany's Weipan, Geely, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Xiaopeng and other orders, the product line and customers continue to enrich, the company is expected to make greater progress in the field of EV motors in the future.
Jingjin Electric - professional third-party drive motor enterprises
Jingjin Electric is one of the domestic leading enterprises in the electric drive system of new energy vehicles, engaged in the research and development, production, sales and service of electric drive systems, and has independently mastered the core technology and achieved a complete layout of the three major assemblies of drive motors, controllers and transmissions. The company's core products are new energy vehicle electric drive systems, which have the technical characteristics of high power density, high torque density, high reliability, high efficiency, low vibration and noise level. The company focuses on the research and development and manufacturing of drive motors, electric drive business has always been the company's main source of income, the company's products are positioned in the high-end electric drive market, and Fiat Chrysler, Geely Group, GAC Group, Xiaopeng Automobile, BYD, Dongfeng Group, Xiamen Jinlong, BAIC Group and other well-known vehicle enterprises to establish a long-term cooperative relationship, and is actively promoting further cooperation with the United States, Europe famous vehicle enterprises.
Based on the production and research and development of drive motor assemblies, the company has realized the complete industrial layout of drive motor assemblies, controller assemblies and transmission assemblies earlier in the industry. In 2015, the company launched the electromagnetic tooth embedded clutch (transmission core technology field), in 2016 launched the reducer product (transmission assembly field), in the same year launched the controller product (controller assembly field), and in January 2019 for the first time launched the three-in-one electric drive system (three major assembly areas), and set the "drive motor assembly + controller assembly + transmission assembly" as one of the electric drive system solutions.
4. Investment analysis
Motor scale and performance trend has arrived, with the rapid increase in new energy vehicles, sales are expected to quickly achieve from millions to tens of millions of vehicles, with the opening of the industry market space, terminal model product upgrades make the drive motor threshold increase rapidly, the future motor will be to double motor and flat line direction of development, focusing on the motor of the third-party enterprises are expected to continue to expand competitive advantages, to obtain higher market share. With the decline in raw material costs and rising prices of motor products, the overall cost of the superimposed scale effect has declined, the profitability of the drive motor industry has arrived, we believe that the third-party motor companies with first-mover advantages are expected to take the lead in achieving profitability, while establishing a moat in profitability, technology, customers, scale and other aspects, the future drive motor industry is expected to be strong Hengqiang!
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