(Report Producer/Author: Western Securities, Luo Yamei, Wang Yiwei)
First, the vehicle controller faucet, product spectrum coverage is wide
1.1, domestic lighting control system leader, diversified products continue to expand
Keboda is a provider of automotive intelligent system solutions, deeply engaged in the field of automotive electronics for nearly 20 years, and is one of the few local enterprises with the ability to support the synchronous development of automotive electronics of global OEMs. The existing products are mainly automotive lighting control, motor control, energy management, automotive electrical and electronics and other auto parts five series (in the first three quarters of 2021, lighting control, motor control, automotive electrical and electronics revenue accounted for 50%, 22%, 18%) respectively.
As the leader of the lighting control system, the company's business covers a full range of products of lighting control, including HID/LED main light source controller, auxiliary light source controller, atmosphere light controller, tail light controller and reading light controller, according to the sensor signal input, through the software algorithm to achieve headlights, daytime running lights, interior mood lights and taillights switch, angle, brightness adjustment and other functions. According to the prospectus, the global market share of the company's main light source controller increased from 2.75% in 2016 to 5.26% in 2018, and the global market share of auxiliary light controller increased from 2.47% in 2016 to 4.77% in 2018. The company's lighting control system sales grew at a COMPOUND annual growth rate of 24% from 2016 to 2020. As the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles continues to increase, the lighting system inside and outside the car has more requirements for intelligence and energy saving, and the demand for lighting control systems will be increased by the value and demand.
The company's new categories continue to expand, expanding around five series. At present, the company's main products have five series: 1) lighting control system, the product covers the main light source, auxiliary light source, atmosphere light, tail light and reading light the entire lighting system controller. 2) Motor control system, including fuel pump control system, air conditioning blower control system and other small and medium-sized motor control systems, as well as active intake grille control system AGS, auxiliary electric pumps and other mechatronic products. 3) Energy management system, including DC/DC converter and DC/AC inverter of on-board power supply. 4) Vehicle electrical appliances and electronics, including solenoid valves, cigarette lighters and other automotive electrical appliances. 5) Other auto parts, including wiring harnesses, clamps, etc.
21 years of the company's lamp controller, AGS system, thermal management system, atmosphere lights, USB, chassis domain controller and other products have been obtained porsche, Volkswagen, Xiaopeng, Geely, BYD, Cummins related project fixed point, of which the lighting controller business to obtain BMW tail lamps, Ford headlights, Renault headlights and other project fixed points, chassis domain controller to obtain byBYD, Xiaopeng and other model project fixed points, the company supporting Xiaopeng DCC products have been mass-produced, chassis domain controller project is under research and development, is expected SOP 2023.
1.2. The globalization of customer structure is accelerating, from "international localization" to "local internationalization"
The company's core customers are the Volkswagen Group, and continue to break through new customers and accelerate the global layout. The company's first automotive electronic product HID-400 electronic ballast was approved by the Volkswagen Group in 2004, obtained the BMG certificate of Volkswagen of Germany, and mass-produced SAIC Volkswagen's domestic order project in 2006. In 2007, the company entered the Audi synchronous development system, cooperated in the development of automotive lighting systems, and expanded HID products to LED products. Therefore, the company's customer structure is deeply bound to the Mass Group (including its subsidiaries Audi, Porsche, Bentley and other car companies), and has successively become the A-class suppliers of SAIC Volkswagen, Audi, FAW-Volkswagen and Porsche Motors, and the field of cooperation has expanded from automotive lighting control systems to motor control systems and energy management systems. In addition to the deep binding of the Volkswagen Group, the company continues to achieve new customer breakthroughs and penetration, accelerate the global layout, the company in the second half of 21 years mass production bmw tail lamps, Ford headlights, Renault headlights project, is expected to multi-dimensional thicken revenue level. At present, as of the third quarter of 2021, the company's top five end-user revenue accounted for about 87%, respectively, for the German Volkswagen, FAW Group, SAIC Volkswagen, Cummins, Weichai Power (of which Volkswagen Group, including FAW-Volkswagen, Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen revenue accounted for about 69%), the overall situation, the company has with Volkswagen Group, Daimler, Jaguar Land Rover, Ford, BMW, Renault and other foreign car companies and BYD, Geely, Xiaopeng and other independent brands to establish cooperative relations, direct customers also include LUMILEDS , HELLA, Huayu Vision, Magneti Marelli and other first-class suppliers.
In the face of the new situation in the industry, the company's customer expansion has transformed from international localization to local internationalization. In the past, the company's products mainly focused on the introduction of joint venture model projects into the country for localization of parts, such as the company's on-board lighting control system is accompanied by Volkswagen's CKD (full bulk assembly) parts ordering model to the localization of the local supply model of the process of transformation. With the acceleration of global electrification transformation and the new situation of the rise of independent brands, the company has accelerated the pace of expansion of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, expanded the technical advantages, professional development capabilities and stable mass production capabilities accumulated by the supply system of Volkswagen Group to other customers, and promoted the internationalization of customer structure. In the downstream, the company received the nomination letter for the BMW automotive LED tail light controller and the nomination letter for the Renault automotive LED main light source controller in 2018, and gradually increased the volume in 2021. Upstream, the company works closely with electronic component leaders such as Infineon, Renesas, TDK, Sumida, and NXP. The company's revenue revenue by region, about 70% of the revenue from the Chinese mainland, about 30% from overseas, the international trend of the company's advantages in overseas markets are more obvious.
1.3. Excellent technical strength, competing on the same stage with international automotive electronics giants
The company pays attention to research and development and continues to increase research and development efforts, compared with other domestic automotive electronic targets and international Tier1, the research and development expense ratio is in the upper position. The company has never positioned itself as a "domestic chemical processing plant" of a joint venture car company, using the Autosar development platform for product development, and directly docking the synchronous development platform with the host manufacturer, and has now ranked among the first echelon of the global lighting controller, competing with international giants such as Continental and Hella. In terms of software development process, the company has obtained ASPICE Level 2 verification and actively prepared for ASPICE Level 3 certification, from project-level process unified technology development capabilities to organizational (company-level) process unification. In terms of safety standard levels, the company meets ASIL Class B standards. In terms of vehicle standard test recognition, the company has the international advanced level of EMC test and testing equipment, existing products have been fully verified, and the development and approval process of new categories is highly reproducible.
Subsidiaries and joint ventures lay out a variety of products around the main business of the on-board controller, and realize the vertical integration of R&D resources and supply chains. Among them, The Jiaxing Industrial Base of Zhejiang Keboda Industrial Co., Ltd. is the production base of the company's main products, which is used for the research and development and production of HID, LED and other automotive lighting controllers, automotive fuel pump controllers, automotive air conditioning blower controllers and other products. Koschko Automotive Components (Pinghu) Co., Ltd., a joint venture between Koboda and Kromberg & Schubert, focuses on the development, production and sales of automotive wiring harnesses, which are used in a wide range of SAIC models, including vehicle low-voltage wiring harnesses and engine wiring harnesses.
1.4. The shareholding structure is relatively concentrated, and the employee incentive is more sufficient
As of March 2022, the total share capital of the company is 400 million shares, the equity is relatively concentrated, and the employee incentives are relatively sufficient. The controlling shareholder of the company is Keboda Investment Holdings Co., Ltd., with a shareholding ratio of 59.85%, the actual controller is Mr. Ke Guihua and Mr. Ke Binghua, the two are brothers, Ke Guihua and Ke Binghua have a total shareholding ratio of 53.69%, and the equity is relatively concentrated. The company's employee shareholding platform is Jiaxing Fujie, Jiaxing Winri, Jiaxing Dingtao, the shareholding ratio is 6.32%, 3.25%, 3.25% respectively, the company's management has shares, employee incentives are more sufficient. (Source: Future Think Tank)
1.5. Performance review: The golden age of the joint venture of accompaniment dance is moving towards a new level of independent rise
Looking back at the company's historical performance, we believe that the company's development is divided into three stages, the early stage to catch up with the golden age of joint venture brands, the current card slot independent rise of the new track:
1) Period of rapid development (2007-2014): The company's business is still in the product introduction period, through the Volkswagen Group BMG recognition smoothly into the Volkswagen Group supply system, follow the astheistic first-class supply chain synchronous growth, access to technical advantages and management experience. In the development of Audi Q7 models, the company competed with giants such as Bosch, Valeo, Denso, and Hella, and successfully obtained the fixed point. At this stage, the rapid development of the company is inseparable from the rapid growth and steady expansion of the Ashkenazi brand in the domestic market, and the company's operating income CAGR reached 58% in 2007-2014, and the net profit attributable to the mother CAGR reached 71%.
2) Stable growth rate (2015-2017): The demand for the passenger car market fluctuates greatly, the company mainly supports German brands to outperform the industry, while the company increases R&D investment and the expansion of new business and new customers, so the revenue growth rate remains stable, and the operating income CAGR in 2015-2017 reaches 26%. At the same time, the company's LED products began to replace HID, the company's new product LED main light source controller began small batch trial production in 2015, due to the low output, resulting in a relatively high unit cost of the product, the corresponding provision for inventory price decline. Therefore, the 2015-2017 attributable net profit run CAGR was only 8%.
3) Business transformation period (2018-present): The domestic and foreign markets have been affected by the comprehensive factors of the epidemic + lack of core, the passenger car industry boom has declined, and the company's supporting customers have been affected to varying degrees, so the company's operating income in 2020 is under pressure, and there is a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the mother still shows an increase of 8.38%, mainly because of the optimization of costs and the increase in the sales share of high-margin products such as lighting control systems and automotive electronic appliances. The company carries out multi-dimensional customer expansion and multi-category product spectrum expansion and other business transformation, customer expansion includes BMW, Ford, Renault and other foreign brands and BYD, Geely and other independent brands, at the same time, the company actively promotes the establishment of cooperative relations with Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal and other new car-making forces. In terms of product spectrum, the company closely follows the on-board controller, expands the intelligent technology of human-computer interaction of intelligent cockpit vision system, new energy vehicle thermal management system and related domain controller products. Under the transformation of new customers + new category business, the company's revenue growth rate CAGR in 2017-2020 is 10%, and the net profit attributable to the mother CAGR is 15%.
The company's profitability is relatively strong, and the gross profit margin of many products remains above 35%. The top three segments of the company's revenue are zhaoming control system, motor control system, vehicle electrical and electronics, accounting for more than 90% of revenue in the past five years. In 2020, the gross profit margin of these three major sectors was 36.8%, 32.4% and 39.0% respectively, and the profitability was strong. Under the combined impact of the epidemic and the lack of core, the comprehensive gross profit margin of the Q1-Q3 company in 2021 is still around 35%, and the profitability is more prominent compared with comparable companies. In terms of expenses during the period, the company's management expense ratio and sales expense ratio were relatively stable, with the management expense ratio center being 5-6%, and the sales expense ratio center being about 2%. In terms of R&D investment, the company's R&D investment has increased steadily, and the R&D expense ratio in Q3 in 21 years has reached 13%.
Second, the new product matrix closely follows the trend of consumption upgrading, and the vehicle controller contains new increments
2.1, penetration rate increase + product upgrade + domestic substitution, on-board controller cast a high-growth high-quality track
The upgrading of automotive electrification, intelligence, networking, and autonomous driving technologies is driving the automotive electronic controller market. We believe that the main catalysts for the growth of the track of in-vehicle controllers are as follows:
1) The increase in penetration rate has led to the expansion of market scale. Passenger cars typically contain 50-100 or more electronic control units (ECUs), and the number and value of bicycle electronic control systems is increasing. According to Statista, the global automotive electronics market will reach $400.27 billion in 2028, nearly doubling from 2020. The domestic automotive electronics market accounts for about 40% of the world, with reference to the Prospective Industry Research Institute's "China Automotive Electronics Industry Market Prospect and Investment Strategy Planning And Analysis Report", we expect that the domestic automotive electronics market size is expected to exceed 880 billion yuan in 2025, and form a trillion yuan market in 2030.
2) Product upgrades have led to a sharp increase in the value of bicycles. Electrification, intelligent networking for sensors, controllers, actuators put forward higher requirements, based on modern communication network technology, to achieve vehicle and vehicle, road, people, cloud and other aspects of intelligent information exchange and sharing, with complex environment awareness, intelligent decision-making, collaborative control and other functions. Therefore, under the trend of product upgrading, the value of bicycle automotive electronics has been further enhanced.
3) There is a huge space for domestic substitution. From the perspective of industry pattern, at present, domestic and foreign automotive electronics are dominated by Tier1 such as Bosch, Continental, denso, etc., and the head three account for a total of 32%, and the industry concentration is very high, so domestic parts suppliers have a large alternative space.
2.2. The company's new product matrix closely follows the trend of consumption upgrading, and provides increments in multiple dimensions
2.2.1, headlight controller: long slope thick snow track, the market size is expected to double in 2025
1) Auto lamp golden track, the lamp controller is the "central nervous system" of high technical barriers
The value of the car lamp assembly single car reaches 1500-3000 yuan, of which the value of a single lamp controller is also as much as 200 yuan. The core links of the lamp mainly include chips, optical modules and controllers. Among them, the lamp controller is the "central nervous system" of the entire lamp assembly, which receives the instructions transmitted by the BCM, and realizes the adjustment logic of the brightness, height and angle of the lamp lighting through algorithm control, which is a component with high technical barriers in the lamp assembly, and ensures the safety and comfort of the lamp lighting system. Most of the lamp assembly suppliers will purchase automotive electronic controllers, such as the controllers of Continental, Delphi, Denso and other companies, and the Keboda lamp controller has successfully cut into the core link with high technical barriers to the lamp, and has in-depth cooperation with the first echelon of first-tier suppliers such as Koito, Huayu Vision, valeo and so on.
The pricing of the company's lamp controller is a cost-plus model, with direct material costs accounting for more than 90% of the total cost. The upstream parts of the company's light controller include electronic components such as MCUs, DSPs, resistors, capacitors, and knot components such as die castings and injection molded parts. Among them, electronic components are the company's main raw materials, and the active components account for the highest proportion of integrated circuit procurement (according to the prospectus, about 17%), and in terms of integrated circuit procurement, the company has established direct supply relationships with international first-class suppliers such as Infineon and Renesas.
2) LED upgrades, mood lights, and intelligent light source systems (AFS, ADB) ushered in new growth
The LED lighting market is growing strongly and is expected to become a "street light". With the improvement of consumer demand for brightness, luminous life, energy saving and durability, car lights have developed from halogen lamps to xenon lamps, LED lights and even laser headlights. At present, LED headlights are basically popular in more than 100,000 models, and many models below 100,000 are also equipped with high equipment, we believe that LED lights will be rapidly popularized and are expected to achieve a penetration rate of nearly 100% in passenger cars in the medium and long term. The rapid penetration of LED lights corresponds to the LED lamp controller is the core growth point. The company's LED controller products have been expanded to BMW, Ford, Renault and other brands, which will effectively increase the company's revenue.
LED products are upgraded and the value is reshaped. In the main light source controller, the effect of the LHC (integrated, LED Headlamp Controller) controller being replaced by the LLP (Matrix, LED Leimo Plus) is highlighted; the effect of the LTM being replaced by the LDM in the auxiliary light source controller is highlighted. The increase in LDM sales has enhanced the bargaining power of raw material procurement and reduced the cost accordingly; the increase in LLP sales has made the company's products continuously upgraded, the value volume has been continuously iterated, and the product has been fully verified by EMC, and there is no need for EMC verification in subsequent new development projects, which greatly reduces the difficulty of program design and R&D costs.
For the size of the lamp market, we estimate that the LED penetration rate will exceed 50% in 2025, the LED lamp market size will reach 50 billion yuan, and the five-year CAGR will reach 12%. For the core components of the lamp lamp controller, we calculate the whole owner of the light source, auxiliary light source, tail light, atmosphere light controller, the total number of bicycles in about 800 yuan, is expected to form a 10 billion market in 2025, the company as the leader of the lamp controller, supporting products will achieve rapid growth. According to the company's prospectus, the company aims to form a production capacity of 21 million LED main light controllers, 12 million auxiliary light source controllers and 6 million atmosphere light controllers within 2024.
Mood lights permeate downwards from high-priced models. Automotive interiors have become an important factor affecting consumers' purchase of cars, and mood lights can meet the needs of consumption upgrades. The atmosphere light controller consists of a master and multiple slaves (low-end cars equipped with 6-10 slaves, high-end cars equipped with 10-20 slaves), the host is responsible for centralized processing of signals, through the LIN bus control slave, the slave accepts the master control, adjusts the RGB tri-color PWM duty cycle to control the color output. We are counting the launch of new cars in Autohome in 2020 and December 2021, and the penetration rate of atmosphere lights in new cars has been increasing and has penetrated from high-priced models to low-priced models, and has penetrated into many models under 100,000.
AFS, ADB function upgrade, the company's third generation of light control LLP has been equipped with ADB function. Automotive lamps also put forward higher requirements for adaptive adjustment functions. According to the current development of LED, most of the LED lamps have a relatively single function, only simple high beam and low light functions, the degree of intelligence is not high, can not adapt to complex road conditions. The current development of adaptive systems mainly includes the AFS adaptive headlamp system and the ADB adaptive high beam system. Among them, AFS rotates the lamps in the headlights 8-15° according to the steering of the vehicle, so as to take into account the dead corner of the curve; ADB judges the distance and position of the car in front of it according to the input video signal, and adjusts the illumination area of the light to avoid glare on the incoming car, while maximizing the driver's vision needs. Adaptive lighting adjustment and other functional upgrades have promoted automotive safety illumination and automotive intelligent lighting, which is an important prerequisite for intelligent assisted driving, and the value of on-board controller products has also increased, thickening the company's revenue.
For the market size of smart lamp AFS and ADB, based on the data calculated by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the domestic AFS penetration rate in 2019 was 18%, and the ADB penetration rate was 1.8%. We counted a number of models in different price ranges on the market, and we found that more than 300,000 models provide AFS and ADB functions, and the models below 200,000 are also gradually penetrated, especially the penetration rate of independent brands is high. We expect AFS penetration to reach 28%, ADB penetration to reach 18%, total market size to reach $34 billion, and FIVE-year CAGR to reach 17% by 2025.
3) Compared with the international Tier1, we believe that the core advantage of Keboda is not only the cost advantage, but also the flexibility of R&D and the ability of localization and customized development. With the rise of new domestic car-making forces and independent brands, domestic controller enterprises can respond to the needs of OEMs faster, take into account technology research and development and manufacturing costs, and are expected to seize the high ground in this round of domestic substitution. Taking the cooperation between the company and the Volkswagen Group as an example, due to the supply of the original designated lighting controller LHC of the Volkswagen Group, the company completed the delivery work in a short period of time under the temporary supply demand, from the demand to the equipment production line construction to the mass production delivery, the company only took 3 months, the company's production line replication ability is strong.
4) The transformation of the lamp controller from a second-tier supplier to a first-level supplier is the mainstream trend. On the one hand, with the increase in cost pressure, the main engine factory hopes that the lamp controller can be purchased on a large scale to reduce costs; on the other hand, with the penetration of LED and intelligent headlights, the controller is becoming more and more complex, and the main engine factory needs to directly participate in the design and development and supplier management to ensure the technical performance and quality requirements of the controller, so the company as an independent third-party lamp controller supplier, most of the items in hand are specified by the vehicle manufacturer and determine its supplier status.
2.2.2, active intake grille system: a new weapon for energy conservation and emission reduction, which is expected to exceed 10 billion market in 5 years
The active grille system AGS (Active Grille Shutter), a mechatronic product, has great growth potential. The system is the core component of thermal management, which can adjust the angle of grille opening and closing according to different working conditions through logical calculation to control the intake of air, which can effectively maintain the ideal working temperature of the motor and battery for new energy vehicles, improve the mileage, and effectively save energy and reduce emissions for fuel vehicles. Keboda's AGS system applies key technologies such as brushless micro-motors, inductive motor control software, and precision gear transmissions and has been supplied to Ford Motor in batches (at the end of April 2019), and the fixed-point project covers volkswagen, NIO, Changan and other customers, with a total of 20 projects under research as of the end of June 2021, and the sales volume of the entire life cycle is expected to be 10 million.
According to FortuneBusiness Insights, AGS systems can reduce CO2 emissions by up to 3g/km, with an average reduction of air resistance of 9%. We calculate that 3g/km of CO2 emissions correspond to about 0.13L/100km of fuel consumption, if the fuel consumption of fuel vehicles is 5L/100km, it is equivalent to a reduction of 2.5% fuel consumption. We assume that for every 50kg reduction in the lightweight armament quality of automobiles, fuel consumption can be reduced by 0.15-0.3L per 100 km (CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 3-7 g/km), and the contribution of AGS to the reduction of fuel consumption is equivalent to a reduction of 20-50kg of curb weight. With the improvement of the mileage requirements of new energy vehicles and the increasingly stringent energy saving and emission reduction standards of fuel vehicles, the penetration rate of AGS will be rapidly improved, according to the company's 2020 annual report, the domestic AGS market size in 2019 is 2.228 billion yuan, and in 2026 it will exceed 10 billion yuan market size. (Passenger car AGS assembly 200~400 yuan, commercial vehicle 700~800 yuan), 7 years CAGR reached 24%. At the same time, AGS is not limited to the passenger car field, according to the company's announcement, the commercial vehicle field such as FAW Jiefang also has a fixed inquiry point.
2.2.3, commercial vehicles China VI emission products: doubled in the first half of 21 years, steady word infrastructure acceleration to support the growth
The implementation of the China VI standard for commercial vehicles drives the development space of The National VI post-treatment products. The China VI emission standards for commercial vehicles are mainly divided into China 6 a and China 6 b stages, and it is expected that the China 6 b switch of all heavy vehicles will be completed on July 1, 2023. Compared with the National V standard, China VI has made strict regulations on the emission limits of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) of the exhaust gas, and the aftertreatment system can reduce two emission indicators, and the components such as urea nozzles, HC injection systems, and intelligent temperature control valves have become new growth points. From the perspective of the general environment, this year's economic work needs to grasp the important requirements of being stable and seeking progress in stability, and the construction of infrastructure and affordable housing is expected to accelerate, and commercial vehicles as means of production will benefit first.
The company's related products have been supported by Cummins, Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck, FAW Jiefang and other commercial vehicle OEMs, breaking the monopoly of foreign enterprises in some key parts and components and achieving better domestic substitution. In the first half of 21, the company's sales of China VI emission-related products maintained a growth rate of more than 150%, mainly benefiting from the switch between China V and China VI of commercial vehicles on July 1, 2021, as the switch of China V and China VI stabilized, the new commercial vehicle products will continue to increase the company's related reprocessing products, and revenue will continue to maintain high growth.
Third, the field of intelligence nuggets, empowering automakers to achieve software-defined vehicles
3.1, the whole vehicle architecture modularization, domain controllers ushered in new opportunities
1) Hardware: Automotive intelligence and networking drive the automotive electronic and electrical architecture from distributed to centralized, and domain controllers usher in new opportunities. The traditional automotive electrical and electronic architecture EEA (Electrical/Electronic Architecture) is a modular, distributed structure, usually each ECU is responsible for controlling a single function, and the individual ECUs communicate through the CAN bus. Distributed electrical and electronic architectures increase system complexity and cost, and in the face of more sensors and more electronic devices, the CAN bus cannot provide higher bandwidth communication support. Therefore, the traditional discrete control architecture needs to be upgraded, and it needs to be transformed into centralized domain control, and eventually form a "vehicle-cloud computing" cloud interoperability model. Different OEMs divide the vehicle functions into different domains according to their own design concepts, and the current mainstream is to divide the different functions of the vehicle into five domains: automatic driving domain, power domain, chassis domain, cockpit domain and body domain. We believe that Tesla is one step ahead in the evolution of the electronic and electrical architecture, Tesla's domain controller is not divided according to the functional area of the vehicle, but divided by region (central computing module, left body control module, right body control module), from centralized to cross-domain integration.
2) Software: With the increase in the communication computing power requirements of intelligent driving and intelligent networking, more complex code data has also increased the design requirements at the software level. The division of labor between the main engine factory and Tier1 is also changing, using the development mode of software and hardware decoupling, taking the development requirements as the source, the main engine factory and Tier1 define the open data/service interface, matching the detailed scene definition, Tier1 provides actuator products instead of the overall solution, and the main engine factory realizes the sharing of hardware resources and the realization of automatic driving functions through the development of control strategies, so software capabilities have become the core competitive force of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. From the planning point of view of the main engine factory, the upgrading of the electronic and electrical architecture in the next 2-3 years is still the dominant direction, and each main engine factory defines the domain controller according to different scenarios. (Source: Future Think Tank)
3.2, chassis + body domain controller to open the company's secondary growth curve, the product has repeatedly won the fixed point
Chassis is an important carrier of automotive safety, comfort and stability, chassis domain controller integrates common brake, steering, suspension control and other functions, safety requirements are higher, technical barriers are higher. Horizontally, the current automotive braking system, parking system, electronic stability system, electric power steering system is undergoing changes, such as vacuum assist system evolved into electronic braking, mechanical parking system evolved into electronic parking system; longitudinal view, chassis control has been from ABS anti-lock system, ESP body stability system and other single system gradually converted into domain control, chassis domain integration has become a trend of development. The current chassis domain controller integration function is less, followed by the integration of steering, electronic stability, braking, parking, anti-locking and other functions, the value of bicycles continues to increase, we estimate that the chassis domain controller in 2025 the market size is expected to reach 7.7 billion yuan, 2030 market size of 24.8 billion yuan, 5 years CAGR reached 27%.
The company is in a leading position in the domestic chassis controller and chassis domain controller market, and has obtained the domestic head independent brands such as Xiaopeng, Geely, BYD DCC (Adaptive Suspension Controller), ASC (Air Suspension Controller) fixed point, and actively developed customers in the international market. Among them, the DCC products supporting Xiaopeng have been mass-produced on Xiaopeng related models, and the chassis domain controller project is under development, and the SOP volume is expected to be released in 23 years. With the significant trend of domestic automobile consumption upgrading, air suspension and adaptive suspension have entered the configuration list of more consumers. All car companies take high-end intelligent electric as brand positioning, and have a positive attitude towards high-end configuration, and have pioneers such as Weilai, JiKr, Lantu, Xiaopeng, Ideal, and Hongqi. The corresponding DCC and ASC controllers will be discharged synchronously. At the same time, the company's domain controller products have been smoothly extended to the body field, and have obtained the fixed point of body domain controllers for domestic new energy vehicle companies related projects. In the future, the company will take the accumulation of chassis domain control technology as the starting point, and at the same time exert the chassis domain + body domain.
Fourth, profit forecast
4.1 Key Assumptions and Profit Forecasts
4.1.1, the new fixed point continues to break through, and the discourse power of the development process is gradually improved
The company's new categories and new customers continue to expand, and new fixed points continue to break through. According to the company's announcement, in 2019, the company added 66 new fixed-point items, 250 million in-hand order life cycle, 47 new fixed-point projects in the first half of 2020, 230 million in-hand order life cycle support, 32 new fixed-point items in the first half of 2021, and 168 million in-hand order life cycle sales. These include global platform projects for internationally renowned customers such as Daimler, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Ford, Renault, peugeot, etc., as well as independent brand projects such as BYD, Geely and Xiaopeng. At the same time, the company has increased the pre-research work of new technologies such as new energy vehicles, intelligent driving, and National VI emission standards, and major frontier fields.
The company is a core supplier of automotive lighting systems and constantly improves its voice in the development process. The automotive lighting system is designated by the main engine factory to the supplier of important assemblies such as modules, control systems, and peripheral covers, and the first-level suppliers are represented by huayu vision, koito, magneto, Hela, Xingyu and other lamp assembly suppliers. The current trend is that the lamp assembly and controller are subcontracted, the core lamp controller supplier is designated by the main engine factory, and the two sides are in direct dialogue in terms of fixed point, certification, development and batch delivery. From the perspective of cost, business and technology, in order to improve the efficiency of the project, OEMs are more willing to choose controller suppliers with high technical barriers and long cooperation cycles, and Keboda has mastered the core technology and developed a close and long-term cooperative relationship, gradually integrating into the head team of the industrial chain, and competing with mainland China, Bosch, Denso and so on.
4.1.2, the lighting control business is growing steadily, and the new category of intelligence is a new starting point for take-off
1) Lighting controller business: the company is a leading light control enterprise at home and abroad, considering the lack of core in the industry for 21 years, the company's revenue and profitability level are under pressure in stages, with the lack of core relief, the market supply and demand of the lamp control business is expected to recover in 22 years. We estimate that the operating income for 2021-2023 will be 14.57/18.82/2.571 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7/29.2/36.6% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin of the business segment will be 32.68/34.66/34.95%, respectively. Based on the total sales of passenger cars and the use of bicycles (2 main light source controllers for bicycles and 2 auxiliary light source controllers), we calculate the sales volume of the company's main and auxiliary light source controllers divided by twice the total annual passenger car volume to calculate the company's market share, we expect that in 2023, the company's main / auxiliary light source controller Domestic market share is expected to exceed 30%/15%, and the global market share exceeds 10%/6%.
2) Motor control system business: the linkage between this sector and the commercial vehicle China VI switch is larger, the demand for commercial vehicles in the first half of 21 years is overdrafted in advance, we expect that the commercial vehicle market will show a trend of "low before and high after" in 22 years, and the company's post-treatment products will be thick and thin, and it is expected to enjoy the dividends brought by emission upgrades. We expect operating income of 5.61/6.81/747 million yuan for 2021-2023, an increase of 2.9/21.3/9.7% year-on-year, and the gross profit ratio of business blocks is 32.45/35.57/36.66%, respectively.
3) Automotive Electrical and Electronics Business: We expect operating income from 2021 to 2023 to be 6.66/9.13/1.094 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6/37.1/19.9% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin of the business segment is 37.21/39.89/40.42%, respectively.
4) Domain controllers and other new services: chassis controllers, including DCC (adaptive suspension controller), ASC (air spring suspension controller), chassis domain controller fixed point projects more, but the mass production projects are post-positioned, is expected to be rapidly increased in the later stage, we expect 2021-2023 revenue growth rate of 66.67/160/86.15% respectively.
5) Period expense rate: the company pays attention to the management optimization of the period cost and R & D investment, we expect that the growth rate of the three fees will be lower than the growth rate of revenue, the scale effect of R & D expenses will be reflected, the products in research and pre-research will be gradually increased, and the R & D output will accumulate and develop. We expect the three-fee expense ratio for 2021-2023 to be 7.43/6.23/5.52%, respectively.
In summary, we expect the company's operating income from 2021 to 2023 to be 3.016/39.41/5.018 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the mother to be 4.30/6.87/915 million yuan, EPS 1.08/1.72/2.29 yuan per share, and PE corresponding to the current company's stock price of 45.6/28.5/21.4 times.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].