2030 has become an important time node for the electrification transformation of car companies.
A few days ago, Kia Motors released the "2030 Strategy", announcing that the brand will accelerate its transformation to electrification. Not long before that, Hyundai Motor also released a medium- and long-term electrification development strategy, demonstrating its determination to transform electrification.
According to incomplete statistics, since March last year, at least 10 multinational brands have announced transformation plans, from electrification products to sales targets, from the positioning of automobile companies to the transformation of mobility service companies, each step is forcing enterprise transformation.
"Farewell to fuel vehicles" and "5 million pure electric vehicles sold annually"
For most overseas car brands, fuel vehicles are still the main role, and under the requirements of change, the research and development and launch of pure electric models have become the top priority of the current transformation of car companies. In the formulation of the 2030 strategy, they have a plan to "say goodbye to fuel vehicles" and also have the expression of "selling 5 million pure electric vehicles per year". Among them, the fastest and relatively concentrated is the German brand.
Starting in the first half of 2021, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, and Mercedes-Benz have announced new plans, followed by Toyota, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, followed by the French Stellantis Group and the Korean Hyundai and Kia.
In July last year, the Volkswagen Group unveiled its "NEW AUTO Strategy," which mentioned that the share of purely electric models is expected to rise to 50% by 2030, and that all new vehicles sold in the group's major markets will be close to zero emissions by 2040.
As a luxury brand of the Volkswagen Group, Audi is also quite aggressive in electrification. In accordance with Audi's "Vorsprung 2030" strategy, from 2026, Audi's new models for the world will be pure electric models, and by 2033, the production of internal combustion engines will be gradually stopped.
Mercedes-Benz, which is also in the BBA ranks, said that by 2025, the proportion of plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicle models will reach 50%, and new car sales will basically transform into pure electric vehicles by 2030.
According to the "three-step" plan for the transformation of BMW's digital intelligent travel enterprises, by 2025, bmw's sales of pure electric vehicle models will increase by more than 50% year-on-year; by 2030, pure electric vehicles will account for at least 50% of global sales.
It can be seen that German brands are more inclined to use the concept of proportion to express the goals to be achieved, but the Japanese, French and Korean systems directly give the specific number of models.
In the Japanese camp, at the end of last year, Toyota Motor motor has announced that it will introduce 30 pure electric vehicle models by 2030, and the global annual sales of pure electric vehicles will reach 3.5 million units in 2030. It should be noted that in addition to pure electric vehicles, Toyota will continue to invest in a full range of products such as plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell models. The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance plans to launch 35 new all-electric models by 2030.
On March 1 this year, the French stellantis group announced the "Dare Forward 2030" plan, which expects the Stellantis Group to have more than 75 pure electric vehicles in 2030 and reach the annual sales target of 5 million pure electric vehicles worldwide. The figure of 5 million vehicles is not low among car companies, and although there are many brands in the Stellantis Group, it is still not easy to achieve this goal.
Hyundai Motor then plans to launch 17 pure electric models by 2030, including 11 models under Hyundai Motor and 6 models under Genises. In terms of sales targets, according to its plan, Hyundai Motor and Geniseys electric vehicles will sell 840,000 vehicles by 2026 and 1.87 million units by 2030.
After that, Kia Motors proposed in its "2030 Strategy" that starting in 2023, Kia plans to launch at least two pure electric vehicles per year, and by 2027, create a complete lineup of 14 pure electric vehicles. In terms of sales, Kia plans to reach 4 million vehicles worldwide by 2030, including more than 2 million eco-friendly models and 1.2 million pure electric vehicles.
It is worth mentioning that the American auto giant General Motors can be called the first traditional car company to put forward the 2030 vision, and it has been introduced on the electrification transformation in 2010. In the decade since, GM has come up with more new plans. In terms of product quantity, GM's plan is to launch 30 electric vehicles worldwide by 2025, while producing more than 1 million electric vehicles in the United States. The company aims to surpass Tesla as the largest electric car maker in the United States by 2025.
Take into account battery production and open up the upstream supply chain
In the process of electrification of the layout of car companies, power batteries have also become the focus of enterprises in the 2030 planning, and many car companies have begun to lay out their own battery industry chain.
The Volkswagen Group is highly motivated to build its own battery supply chain. The "NEW AUTO Strategy" proposes that Volkswagen will be committed to solving all problems that arise in the process from raw materials to recycling, and building a controllable battery supply chain. By 2030, six super battery factories will be deployed in Europe, with a total annual production capacity of up to 240 gigawatt hours to ensure the Group's future battery supply.
Also looking to build a power battery supply chain is Mercedes-Benz. Officials expect Mercedes-Benz's battery capacity demand to exceed 200 gigawatt hours. In the future, in addition to the production network of nine battery plants that are currently in production or planned, Mercedes-Benz plans to build an additional eight battery plants with global partners.
Toyota President Akio Toyoda also said that Toyota Motor has been committed to battery technology development for many years, and in the future, it will continue to integrate battery technology, aiming to reduce the cost of battery use by 50% by 2030, and battery investment will also increase from 1.5 trillion yen to 2 trillion yen.
However, despite the importance of power batteries, not all car companies want to build their own supply chain system. According to Hyundai Motor's plan, in order to meet the scale of 170GWh batteries on the 1.87 million electric vehicles sold by 2030, Hyundai plans to further consolidate its in-depth cooperation with the world's top battery companies. At the same time, on the basis of the existing ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, further enrich the battery types to cope with the needs of various markets. In addition, Hyundai Motor will also focus on the development of next-generation battery technologies such as solid-state batteries.
The Stellantis Group has a reserve plan for 2030 in terms of batteries, which was previously 140GWh, and in the "Dare Forward 2030" plan, this figure has been raised to 400GWh. In addition, the Stellantis Group is also developing hydrogen fuel cell technology, which will be applied to heavy-duty trucks in the future.
The strategy adopted by the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance in terms of batteries is to purchase batteries jointly, and a common battery supplier will be selected for Renault and Nissan product brands to achieve scale effects. It is planned that by 2030, the alliance will have a total of 220 GWh of battery capacity at major production sites around the world. In terms of technology, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance bet on all-solid-state batteries, and according to previous plans, the Japanese product brand will launch pure electric vehicles equipped with all-solid-state batteries in 2028.
The software business is critical
The electrification of the automobile industry is closely linked to intelligence, and the development of intelligent technology is also an important step in the future planning of car companies.
In Kia's automotive planning, the future will be in the intelligent interconnection services, autonomous driving technology, high performance, design of the four major areas of strength, from 2025, all Kia models will be equipped with the world's first-class intelligent interconnection system, the future will also be upgraded through OTA technology.
Hyundai Motor shows its emphasis on software research and development from the perspective of capital investment and revenue. According to its plan, hyundai motor plans to expand sales of software-related businesses to 30% of total sales by 2030, and plans to invest 12 trillion won in software research and development. In addition, we will ensure that we increase the number of professionals by more than 20% every year and strengthen the software strength in all business fields.
The Volkswagen Group's emphasis on software is not to mention, as mentioned earlier, it wants software services to be the main source of finance. In addition, Dirk Hilgenberg, CEO of CARIAD, the automotive software company of the Volkswagen Group, emphasizes: "Software plays a crucial role in the Volkswagen Group's transformation from a traditional car manufacturer to an integrated mobility service provider. By 2030, software based on autonomous driving technology will be a major source of revenue for the entire automotive industry. ”
Audi said that Audi will lead the new era of mobility with the Volkswagen Group and its brands, and the group's overall innovation strength will become a key competitive advantage in electric mobility and software transformation.
Stellantis Group has also shown a high degree of attention to the software business, before the release of "Dare Forward 2030", the legal group has announced its software strategy last December, according to the plan, Stellantis will create a new electrical and electronic and software architecture, the future will cooperate with Hon Hai Group, BMW and Waymo and other companies to develop intelligent cockpit and automatic driving and other technologies. By 2030, the revenue increase from the software business will reach about 20 billion euros.
The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance's performance in terms of digital experience is around 2025. By 2025, officials say, the alliance will launch the first fully software-defined car, improving the car's over-the-air download (OTA) performance throughout the product lifecycle. It is expected that by 2026, more than 10 million vehicles will be equipped with autonomous driving assistance systems in 45 models and 25 million vehicles will be connected to the alliance cloud system in the same year. The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance will also become the first manufacturer in the world to introduce the Google ecosystem into production models.
Diversified sources of financial income
In addition to the product camp, another major test of transformation is in terms of financial data.
Kia Motors said that by 2026, Kia plans to reduce fixed costs by expanding production and reducing technology development costs, achieving an operating margin of 39% for pure electric vehicles. In addition, by 2026, all eco-friendly models will contribute 52% to operating profits, surpassing models with internal combustion engines.
Hyundai Motor's plan is: in 2030, the operating profit margin of the electric vehicle field will reach 10% or more, and the comprehensive profit margin will reach 10%.
In the Volkswagen Group's planning, pure electric vehicles are not the ultimate source of finance. According to Volkswagen's plan, in the next 10 years, the fuel vehicle market will shrink by more than 20%. At the same time, the pure electric vehicle market is bound to grow rapidly and replace fuel vehicles to dominate the market. After the profit and revenue sources of the automotive industry gradually shift from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles, they will eventually shift to software and services driven by autonomous driving technology.
The Stellantis Group's revenue forecast is to double its net revenue to €300 billion by 2030. In the future, revenue sources will be more digital, and 1/3 of global sales in 2030 will come from online sales models. In addition, the seven value-added services of mobility, financial services, used cars, automotive aftermarket, data services, circular economy, and commercial vehicles will be given more autonomy.
GM's financial plan in October last year was to double its revenue by 2030, a figure that will reach about $280 billion by 2030, while more diversified revenue sources, not only relying on passenger car and truck sales, software revenue will also become one of the important sources.
The financial planning of the Mercedes-Benz and BMW brands is not specific, but it is also expected that the financial revenue will shift to the circular economy and the digital business will increase revenue.
Under the strict carbon neutrality policy, in addition to Hyundai, Volkswagen, BMW and other companies, more and more car companies are putting electrification transformation planning on the agenda. By 2030, what kind of pattern the automotive industry will have in the new energy era, the industry is very much looking forward to.