New energy subsidies will be abolished, what is the impact on our car purchase? How much more will it cost to buy a new energy vehicle next year?
In recent years, the development of new energy vehicles has been so fast, and the support of relevant policies has played a great role, especially the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, which is not only a good thing for manufacturers, but also directly to consumers, so that we can buy new energy vehicles at a lower price.
How big is the impact of the cancellation of new energy subsidies?
However, in general, this dividend is basically used as a promotion in the early stage of development, when the industry is on the right track and gradually stabilizes, the dividend will gradually decline, or even eventually canceled, and the same is true for new energy vehicle subsidies. On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022 (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice").
The "Notice" said that the subsidy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles has been slowly declining. In 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021; the subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021 for urban buses, road passenger transport, rental (including online car-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports and vehicles in the official field of party and government organs.
At the same time, the Notice also clearly states that in order to maintain the good development momentum of the new energy automobile industry, comprehensively considering factors such as the development plan of the new energy automobile industry, the market sales trend and the smooth transition of enterprises, the 2022 new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy will be terminated on December 31, 2022, which means that 2022 will be the last year of the new energy subsidy policy. In other words, new energy vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer enjoy the new energy subsidy policy.
That is to say, starting from 2023, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles that has been implemented for more than ten years will be completely withdrawn. So how much impact will the decline and cancellation of subsidies have on our car purchases? Let's do the math.
According to the policy, during 2021, pure electric vehicles with a cruising range of 300km-400km can enjoy a subsidy of 13,000 yuan; pure electric vehicles with a range> of 400km and a price of less than 300,000 yuan can enjoy a subsidy of 18,000 yuan.
In 2022, the subsidy will be reduced by 30% on this basis, that is, pure electric vehicles with a mileage of 300km-400km, the subsidy will be reduced by 13,000 ×30%, that is, 3900 yuan, and the amount of subsidy is 9100 yuan; pure electric vehicles with a battery life> of 400km and priced at less than 300,000 yuan will be reduced by 5400 yuan, and the amount of subsidies will be 12600 yuan.
The conditions for the subsidy for hybrid models are NEDC pure electric endurance of> 50km, or WLTC pure electric endurance > 43km, and the price is less than 300,000 yuan. Such models will enjoy a subsidy of 6800 yuan in 2021, which will be reduced to 4760 yuan in 2022. And next year, these subsidies will all be gone, and it is certain that the price of new energy vehicles will rise next year.
The price of battery raw materials has soared
In fact, this year, many new energy vehicle companies have quietly raised the price of models, one is due to the decline in subsidies, and another reason is that the price of battery raw materials including nickel, cobalt, lithium, etc. continues to rise. According to the data released by the "Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Agency", a global battery raw material consulting company, the prices of battery-grade cobalt, nickel sulfate and lithium carbonate rose by 119%, 55% and 569% respectively in the two years from January 2020 to January 2022. In ternary lithium batteries, the cost of cathode materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel has reached nearly 50% of the cost of battery materials.
Under the dual pressure of subsidies and rising raw material costs, the price increase of new energy vehicles is also an inevitable result, after all, manufacturers are not welfare institutions, and no one can lose money and make money.
According to reports, consumers who are ready to buy electric vehicles have received messages from some brand sales since the beginning of the year, urging them to hurry up and place orders, otherwise they will spend thousands of yuan more. A consumer said that his favorite MusicMach-E, its full-drive long-endurance deluxe version, the guidance price was adjusted from 339,900 yuan to 347,400 yuan, an increase of 7,500 yuan.
According to incomplete statistics, by February this year, more than 10 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases, including new forces such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Tesla, and Nezha, as well as traditional car companies such as BYD, Roewe, FAW-Volkswagen, and Ford. The increase in each model ranges from 1,000 yuan to 21,000 yuan, and the guidance price of most models is raised by 3,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan.
In order to alleviate the pressure of consumers to buy cars, but also to give everyone a transition and acceptance process, some brands have issued corresponding car purchase subsidy programs. For example, WEILAI's policy is that users who pay a deposit to purchase ES8, ES6 and EC6 before December 31, 2021 (inclusive) and successfully pick up their cars before March 31, 2022, can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the 2021 national subsidy standards, and the difference is borne by WEIlai.
Xiaopeng Automobile has also launched an insurance strategy. That is, users who pay a deposit from January 1 to 10, 2022 can enjoy the same subsidy policy as in 2021, and the difference in subsidies between 2022 and 2021 is borne by Xiaopeng Motors.
Continue to be exempt from purchase tax? The situation is unclear
In addition, there is also an unresolved policy, which will also have a relatively large impact on the price of new energy vehicles, that is, the purchase tax exemption. As we all know, the purchase of new energy vehicles now can enjoy the benefits of free purchase tax. How much money can this policy save us? Do the math. If we buy a car with a naked car price of 200,000 yuan, the purchase tax to be paid is 200,000 ÷ 113×10% = 17699 yuan.
At present, there are no government documents showing the news that the purchase tax reduction for new energy vehicles will continue to be implemented in 2023. At present, a lot of information revealed by the wind is that this year is already the final window period of the new energy vehicle purchase tax reduction policy, and it is likely that the purchase tax will also be levied next year for the purchase of new energy vehicles.
In fact, this is also a very normal thing, now the sales of new energy vehicles are increasing day by day, and the state's subsidies have also shown a geometric growth. The data shows that since the implementation of the reduction and reduction policy, the amount of annual subsidies of the state has increased from the original 860 million yuan to 10.54 billion yuan in just 5 years, and the total amount of subsidies has reached 32.9 billion yuan. In addition, over the past decade, the mainland has invested a total of 147.8 billion yuan in subsidies for new energy vehicles, and the vehicles covered by subsidies have reached about 1.916 million. According to the development speed of new energy vehicles, and then subsidize, the pressure on government finances will be greatly increased.
In summary, if the subsidy and purchase tax reduction policies are all cancelled, the price of each new energy vehicle will rise by at least 30,000 or 40,000 yuan, which is a considerable amount, and it will definitely have an impact on consumers' car purchase decisions. However, at present, the industry generally believes that the current mainland new energy vehicles are passing the inflection point of marketization, from policy-driven to demand-driven. Even if there is a partial price increase, the impact on sales is expected to be very limited. The reason why the new energy vehicle market has exceeded expectations in 2021 is that subsidies are on the one hand, but the more core reason is that a large number of new models are listed, and the high-quality supply of the new energy vehicle market has greatly increased.
summary
Of course, how much the policy changes will affect the market will have to wait until next year. Anyway, users who want to buy new energy vehicles, take advantage of this year to buy it, next year's sharp price increase is a nail in the coffin.