Text/Hu Yutong
Edit/Gale
Wave after wave of uneven waves, Haidilao has been on two hot searches in four days.
On February 24, Haidilao was exposed to privately label guests, giving guests notes according to their appearance and personality, similar to "melon face in their 20s" and "like to complain on the APP". Haidilao's customer service responded: "The internal system is inconvenient to disclose to the outside world. "As soon as this incident came out, Haidilao's seemingly enthusiastic service was inevitably suspected of hypocrisy.
Just a few days ago, a profit warning woke up the "dream" of the hot pot giant. As of the end of last year, Haidilao expected an annual net loss of about 3.8 billion yuan to 4.5 billion yuan. Haidilao's stock price trend is also not optimistic, in the past year alone, the stock price fell by 77%, the market value evaporated BY 370 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Looking back at the day when Haidilao was listed and ranging the bell, founder Daniel Zhang once released a bold statement to the media: "My goal is to open Haidilao all over the world." And decided that in the future, the overseas scale of Haidilao will inevitably exceed that of the mainland. Now it seems that Daniel Zhang the bold words and ambitions at that time were great. Expanding stores and running overseas, Haidilao has really done it, but it has become the source of huge losses.
Behind the label, stock price contraction, closure of stores, in the face of the current situation of Haidilao, some media directly called it is "falling off the altar". The adventurous advance of Daniel Zhang is indeed an important factor in Haidilao's heavy blow, but in the face of uncontrollable factors such as the frequent emergence of black swans and the hot pot market where rising stars grab food, Haidilao's embarrassment cannot be blamed on Daniel Zhang.
Under the internal and external troubles, Haidilao is sinking to the bottom of the sea, and it is difficult to see signs of bottoming out for a while.
Shut down 300, Haidilao expansion "stall"
Regarding haidilao's strategic failure to expand, Daniel Zhang is well aware of it.
In June 2021, Daniel Zhang generously admitted his "mistake", bluntly saying that it was "blind confidence" to let Haidilao expand against the trend. Five months later, Haidilao announced that it would gradually close about 300 stores, and once again pointed out that these "problem stores" were caused by the rapid expansion strategy in 2019.
However, Haidilao's reaction was still several beats slower.
In 2020, just when the global epidemic was serious, the entire catering industry was in a depressed situation, and Haidilao not only did not stop the pace of opening stores, but also went overseas.
This year, Haidilao opened 544 new stores, expanding the number of stores worldwide to 1298, of which 93 also covered 14 countries and regions such as Singapore, Vietnam and Japan. In the first half of last year, Haidilao added 299 new stores, 13 of which were located in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and overseas.
Although the revenue of new stores is not disclosed by specific data, the reduction of the turnover rate can reflect the operating conditions of new stores to a certain extent. At its peak, Haidilao's average turnover rate was 5 times per day, which was much higher than the industry level. In 2020, the average turnover rate of newly opened stores has dropped from 4.1 times / day to 2.8 times / day, and in the first half of 2021, it is only 2.3 times / day, which is lower than the turnover rate of old stores in the same period.
From this announcement, it can be seen that Haidilao's one-time losses and impairment losses caused by factors such as the closure of stores and the decline in store performance totaled about 3.3 billion yuan to 3.9 billion yuan. Chinese food analyst Zhu Danpeng said that when the epidemic enters a stable period, Haidilao's scale effect will bring a positive effect, and vice versa, it will drag it down.
Choosing to start the "Woodpecker Program" is the most direct way for Haidilao to reduce its burden. Two measures are proposed in the plan: we will continue to pay attention to stores with poor operating performance, including overseas stores, and take corresponding improvement measures; for areas where the average turnover rate is less than 4 times per day, in principle, no new Haidilao stores will be opened.
In the self-examination and self-examination for more than half a year, Haidilao found the main "diseases and insects", and it will take a certain amount of time to restore the business situation. In the meantime, there was also a large wave of tiger-eyed laggards staring at the track.
Still "boiling" hot pot track
Daniel Zhang admit another point: no hot pot restaurant or restaurant is inseparable. Compared with Haidilao's "stall", the popularity of hot pot in the primary market has not been affected.
In January this year, a Chongqing hot pot brand Peijie Lao Hotpot received a round of financing of 100 million yuan, covering 31 cities in 8 years. In the second half of 2021 alone, the hot pot track received nearly 3.5 billion yuan in financing.
Banu Mao Mao Hotpot, which once regarded Haidilao as its "predecessor", received nearly 100 million yuan of financing from Tomato Capital in March last year. The rapid momentum of Banu Hotpot received a new round of financing of up to 500 million yuan in November, led by CPE Yuanfeng Capital. There are also brands such as Brother Zhou and Chaotianmen Wharf that have received financing of 100 million yuan.
In addition, Fishing King and Qixintian, who are expected to become the next listed hot pot companies, have submitted prospectuses to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange one after another to fully impact the IPO. Seeing that the players in the hot pot track are seriously "inner rolled", why does capital still love to pile up here?
Zhu Danpeng explained: "De-chefization is one of the reasons for the explosion of the hot pot track, and it is the most convenient for the brand side's personnel management, cost operation and other aspects. For consumers, his participation will be higher and his sense of experience will be stronger. ”
To be a hot pot chain brand, it is necessary to have the following characteristics: stable supply chain and standardized management. The word "quality control" often mentioned in the mouths of consumers is actually the supply chain situation that is tested in the hot pot industry. From raw materials, cold chain transportation, store decoration and other aspects of supporting suppliers, including the front store, back kitchen, warehousing and other entire production process.
And these in the industry have long been open secrets, easy to make standardized, professional hot pot, but also means easy to homogenize.
Haidilao's "last big brother" sipping and feeding was the first to taste the pain, and in August last year, sipping and breastfeeding chose to close 200 stores.
In the early years, sipping and feeding broke into the Chinese mainland market with the "one-person food" hot pot, and this type of hot pot on the market today has long been strange. The emergence of categories such as "rotating small hot pot" and Japanese single compartment hot pot has made the "one-person food" hot pot lose its characteristics. Although it has made tentative adjustments and proposed a brand upgrade strategy to shift to the high-end market, it has not made much of a splash.
"The power of the two brands is slowly declining." Zhu Danpeng said that on the whole, because the products and brands are aging, the quality is not differentiated, and its service system is losing its advantages.
In the face of consumers, anxiety is the norm
Consumers, on the other hand, always like the new and hate the old.
"The entire Chinese new generation and the heavy consumers of hot pot, they are more and more demanding of the brand side. Once the brand side's innovation and iteration cannot keep up with the rhythm of consumption upgrade, it will be abandoned. Zhu Danpeng told Zinc Finance.
When it comes to Haidilao, most people's impression is that the service experience is too good, and the appeal for diners is slowly fading.
In 2018, a birthday song of "say goodbye to all the troubles" went viral on the short video platform, in which Haidilao employees celebrated the unique birthday of guests with a little embarrassment in their enthusiasm, and this slightly "social death" experience captured the curiosity of the viewers.
There are also a series of haidilao exclusive eating methods: DIY hot pot bottom, optional ingredients, food combinations and other highly personalized recipes widely circulated on the Internet. In addition, Haidilao's self-developed "face-pulling performance", nail art services and small games waiting in line, at that time, all seemed to be the leaders of industry innovation.
But when Haidilao's service can't play a new trick, customers' attention will focus on taste. A diner told Zinc Finance: "At first, it felt quite fresh, but later found that in addition to the service, Haidilao is not a particularly delicious hot pot." Daniel Zhang has also responded to such questions, saying that Haidilao does not attach importance to taste.
Haidilao, which does not pay attention to taste, needs a new growth curve.
Zhu Danpeng said: "Ingredient differentiation, scene innovation, and food safety guarantee are some of the new needs of consumers for the hot pot industry. "Taking self-heating hot pot as an example, the fast food that is slightly lacking in taste accurately grasps the demand pain points of the diners' home scene."
After entering the normalization period of the epidemic, the self-heating hot pot has been ripened by the market due to its high cost performance, convenient production and long storage period. According to the "2021 China Self-heating Hot Pot Industry Development Research Report" by Ai Media Consulting, the size of China's self-heating hot pot market in 2021 is estimated to be 10.37 billion yuan, and as of October last year, there are 78 enterprises in China that do self-heating hot pot.
In the face of the ever-changing needs of consumers, the slightest carelessness will fall behind, and Haidilao is no exception.
The mouths of Chinese diners are the most delicate, and the "old things" of Haidilao have long numbed the taste buds of many people. What's more, Haidilao's proud "smile service" has been labeled strangely by customers under the so-called "group strategy". The former hot pot brother, before being ridiculed for "falling off the altar", has already revealed clues.