When assessing the penetration of New Energy Vehicles in China, it is necessary to pay attention to first-tier cities, especially Shanghai - this area is due to the combination of policies and markets, and Shanghai is pursuing the new energy industry, which is worth our continuous tracking and analysis, plus Tesla China is also in Shanghai, the pros and cons do need to be plated:
In 2021, the output value of new energy vehicles in Shanghai exceeded 160 billion yuan, an increase of 200% year-on-year; the output reached 550,000 units, an increase of 170% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai exceeded 670,000 units. The overall goal of Shanghai is to exceed 350 billion yuan in output value of new energy vehicles and more than 1.2 million units at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and to build a charging network to meet the charging needs of more than 1.25 million electric vehicles.
In 2021, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory delivered a total of 484,130 new vehicles, an increase of 235% year-on-year, accounting for 51.7% of Tesla's annual total global deliveries, and Tesla's Shanghai factory (Lingang New Area) contributed more than 150 billion yuan in output value, accounting for 93.75% of Shanghai's new energy vehicle output value.
Part 1: Permeability of the ceiling
I transferred the 2021 Shanghai license plate data, we see that in 2021, Shanghai's control over the overall number of cards is still very obvious, and the cumulative number of licensees in 1-12 months is 622841, a cumulative increase of 11.79%. The number of new energy vehicles on the plate is 243,100, and the average penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2021 is 38.93%, an increase of 16.8% over 22.25% in 2020.
Remarks: In the same period, the import of vehicles was 57,000 units, 4.69% year-on-year, the number of non-new energy vehicles was 115,000 units, down -21.44% year-on-year, and the number of SUVs was 169,000 units, down -15.35% year-on-year.
Figure 1 Penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Shanghai (statistical caliber is the number of cards)
The full year of 2021 is not as volatile as before, but the overall figure is highest at 31,055 vehicles in December. In January 2022, Shanghai had 19,455 new energy vehicles, including 12,562 pure electric vehicles and 6,893 plug-in hybrids, a year-on-year decline.
Figure 2 Shanghai new energy vehicle licensing data in 2021
My understanding is that after a smooth in 2020 and a breakthrough in 2021, the Shanghai new energy vehicle market will be relatively more stable in 2022, and we can carefully analyze it through the data chart of Shanghai new energy vehicles in January.
Figure 3 Penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Shanghai in January 2022
Part 2: Interpretation of New Energy Vehicle Sales in Shanghai in January
Overall, the top five sales of fuel vehicles by traditional automobile companies are Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Buick and Audi. The scale of new energy vehicles in January is still worse than that of traditional fuel vehicles.
Figure 4 Data analysis in Shanghai in January
Judging from the data of new energy vehicles, BYD has taken the top spot in Shanghai and occupied the first position in the field of plug-in hybrid and pure electric.
Figure 5 Overview of shanghai's new energy data in January
In terms of our price structure, Shanghai's automobile consumption has entered the main section of more than 100,000 (where fuel vehicles have discount elements), in the 10-15 million type, pure electric vehicles do not have a more suitable place. The 150,000-200,000 and 250,000-350,000 sections are currently the most important price segments of new energy vehicles in Shanghai.
Figure 6 Shanghai new energy vehicle sales price segment in January
Judging from the data in January, under the advantages of licensed policies, electric vehicles have been able to stand. Since after 2023, plug-in hybrid will lose the advantage of the license policy, and the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles in the high-end market will further expand.
Figure 7 Comparative grading sections in Shanghai in January
Shanghai's new energy model sales, I also did some collation for your reference, as far as a single model is concerned, it is still Model Y in the forefront.
Figure 8 Situation of major new energy models in Shanghai in January
brief summary:
My personal judgment is that the situation in Shanghai may be a more forward-looking projection of the development of New Energy Vehicles in China, which does represent how the entire new energy vehicles should go and fuel vehicles in the absence of small cars to "sweep points". And according to Shanghai's radical plan for the new energy automobile industry, if Tesla does not continue to invest in the second phase, the output of Volkswagen and GM will need to be pulled up.
Figure | network and related screenshots
About author:Zhu Yulong, senior electric vehicle three-electric system and automotive electronics engineer, author of "Automotive Electronics Hardware Design".
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