Written by / Cow Heel Shang
Editor/ Zhang Nan
Design / Zhao Haoran
A new energy vehicle company's insurance volume in 2021 is even higher than its announced wholesale volume of 26,127 vehicles - 36,000 more, and the error rate can enter the Guinness Book of Records. This is a small surprise after listening to the "2021 New Energy Passenger Vehicle Terminal Sales Data Conference" on February 18.
Not only that, in 2021, China's pure electric passenger car terminal sales were 2.3611 million units, 372,900 fewer than the 2.734 million units announced by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Dr. Wang Wulin, secretary general of the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Professional Committee of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, who led the team to sort out the data, said that this may be because the statistical caliber is different, and they are counting the vehicle data of consumers who have been licensed and handed over car insurance.
For the belated number of insurances - new energy passenger car terminal consumer purchase data, this bookish expert has analyzed and interpreted from many aspects.
Because the data involves pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended range, this conference mainly interprets the relevant data of pure electric passenger cars: mainly because pure electric is a non-fossil energy in the complete sense (the current is the non-fossilization of the use stage, and the future will be non-fossilized in the entire life cycle), which is of great significance to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.
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The outstanding performance of China's new energy vehicles in 2021, this professional who has been dealing with data in recent years and likes to travel with small books to investigate and record in the streets and alleys, sit on a double-decker bus to observe the flow of traffic and the number of new energy vehicles, summed up in two words: excitement.
These exciting points include, first, the C-end terminal data in the past year, which basically shows that manufacturers' attention to the competition of new energy vehicles has begun to meet consumers, and the situation of "left and right hands falling" has been greatly changed.
Second, the terminal sales data of key cities are also being adjusted, which is directly related to the local government's promotion of the construction of the new energy market environment, of which the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen is more than 20%.
In addition, the imbalance in regional terminal sales has become an urgent problem in the development of new energy vehicles, and the reason behind this problem is the pain point in the development process of new energy vehicles.
Different from the monthly release of other associations and the bi-monthly consideration of most mainstream automobile manufacturers, the new energy passenger car terminal sales data conference jointly held by the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Professional Committee of the China Electronics Chamber of Commerce and Gaz Automobile adopts quarterly release, in fact, the changes in the terminal of the automobile market can be seen more in 3 months and 90 days.
Discovery 1: "High"
In 2021, China's total passenger car sales showed a slight increase trend, 5.4234 million units in the first quarter, 5.0363 million units in the second quarter, 4.7606 million units in the third quarter, 5.5472 million units in the fourth quarter, and 20.7676 million units in the whole year, an increase of 4 percentage points over last year.
Terminal sales of pure electric passenger cars showed an upward trend, with 359,700 units in the first quarter, 463,000 units in the second quarter, 607,900 units in the third quarter, 930,500 units in the fourth quarter, and 2,361,100 units in the whole year.
The proportion of pure electric passenger car terminal sales has gradually increased - that is, the penetration rate is usually said, accounting for 6.63% of passenger car sales in the first quarter, 9.19% of passenger car sales in the second quarter, 12.77% of passenger car sales in the third quarter, 16.77% of passenger car sales in the fourth quarter, and 11.37% of pure electric passenger car terminal sales in the whole year.
Finding 2: 40% in East China
When it comes to regional data, Wang Wulin can hardly hide "calm": the sales ranking of new energy vehicles in various regions remains basically unchanged, the first in East China, the second in South China, central China and North China alternate between the third and fourth, the sales volume of these four regions accounts for more than 80% of the national sales, and the proportion of the four regions of East China, South China, Central China and North China has reached 87.58% throughout the year, and the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in East China has been fluctuating around 40%."
The proportion of total passenger car sales in East China is basically maintained at the level of 34%, which has a certain "benchmarking" significance: under the initial stage of automobile society in the mainland, the proportion of automobile passenger cars in East China is stable, which to a certain extent shows that the market-oriented distribution pattern of the mainland automobile market has basically formed, and this pattern may last for a long time.
"If it is normalized, when the proportion of new energy passenger cars in the total sales of new energy vehicles in the country is close to this figure, it may herald the arrival of a real era of new energy vehicles." Wang Wulin believes that although the era of new energy vehicles will eventually come, "the revolution has not yet been fully successful, and comrades (peers) still need cross-border efforts."
Discovery 3: 40% of 13 cities
From the data, the annual sales of new energy passenger cars in 13 cities accounted for 40% of the national new energy passenger car sales.
Judging from the terminal sales data of these cities: the first echelon is Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and Guangzhou; the second echelon is Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Suzhou and Chengdu; and the third echelon is Qingdao, Wuhan, Xi'an, Dongguan and Chongqing.
Judging from the data of the four quarters, although the data of 13 cities has risen and fallen, there has been no major change in the trend characteristics, and the overall data of 13 key cities still shows that the current sales pattern of new energy vehicles in the mainland is still dominated by key cities.
Wang Wulin has two expectations, one is that the car market plate, especially the new energy vehicle base plate, is getting bigger and bigger, and the second expectation is that the proportion of new energy vehicles in key cities is getting smaller and smaller. "Expect the diffuse formation of terminal sales: while maintaining total growth, the proportion of key cities will decrease, which is the situation after the competition in the new energy passenger car market."
Discovery 4: A fundamental change in the phenomenon of "left and right hands"
A few years ago, there was a semi-public little secret in the car circle: the sales of new energy vehicles are mostly self-produced and sold, that is to say, automobile manufacturers sell new energy vehicles to travel companies and leasing companies that they register or cooperate with, rather than real third-party operations or commercialization.
However, from the 2021 full-year pure electric TO C-end data, this proportion is 70%, while the new energy passenger car To C data accounts for more than 87.86%. The phenomenon of "left and right hands" that has been circulating has undergone a fundamental change.
Wang Wulin tracked the data of the C-end for a year, and he found two characteristics: one is that the "left and right hands" phenomenon has fundamentally changed, the new energy passenger car has entered the market-driven environment, and the demand competition has begun; the second is that the C-end of the new energy passenger car is still in the characteristics of "key areas, key groups, key models, and large demand is difficult to meet".
The electrification of operating vehicles has become the mainstream: on the one hand, because of policy guidance and demonstration (including the blessing of policies and so on), on the other hand, technology has improved products, so that products are gradually accepted by customers; at the same time, the construction of ecosystems is also continuously improving.
At the same time, the analysis data provided by the Gaz Automotive Research Institute shows that the proportion of non-restricted cities purchasing new energy vehicles has also increased from 59% in 2020 to 73%.
The judgment of the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Professional Committee of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce is: "The foundation is already in place, the competitive market has been formed, and the era of competing for deer has arrived." ”
Discovery 5: The first year of pure electric vehicles
Terminal sales data in the four quarters of 2021 continued to improve, and pure electric passenger cars became the "incremental" in the mainland automobile market.
The Intelligent Electric Vehicle Professional Committee of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce believes that 2021 will become the first year of the marketization of pure electric passenger cars in the mainland, which is "worth writing the history of the development of pure electric vehicles in the mainland": the annual sales of pure electric passenger car terminals reached 2.3611 million units, accounting for 11.37%.
For the market expectations in 2022, Wang Wulin predicted cautiously: the terminal sales of pure electric passenger cars are expected to be about 2.8 million units, accounting for more than 15%.
Who will be the world-influential large OEMs with cross-border connotations and technology-led large OEMs with world influence in the next 5 years?
The current pure electric passenger car market structure is still "dumbbell type", one of the main reasons is that the mainland pure electric passenger car can not better meet the needs of consumers, the future space can be expected, for those who have entered or will enter to provide opportunities, intelligence is the accelerator and catalyst for market increment.
2022 will still be a group of deer, independent brands will be galloping and powerful in the broad market, the possibility of the transformation of a large automobile country to a strong country will increase, but the inflection point of quantitative change to qualitative change is far from coming, which may bring more reverie to those technology giants and capital markets that have the dream of making cars.