Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
After the Opening of the Spring Festival, A shares ushered in the "start of the red envelope" - the automobile sector, lithium battery plate, the day more than 75%, 80% of the individual stocks rose, but in this wave of market, the only listed company on the ChiNext board with a market value of more than one trillion yuan - The stock price of Ningde Times fluctuated sharply.
According to statistics, in the five trading days from February 7 to February 11, the stock price of CATL fell by 17.34% in one week, and the total market value evaporated by nearly 240 billion yuan in a single week. The last time the stock price of THE NINGDE era fell sharply was at the end of last year. On December 24, 2021, the share price of CATL fell by 7.28% that day, from the opening price of 624 yuan to the closing price of 576.8 yuan, and the stock price fell into the 500 yuan era for the first time.
At that time, the stock price of the Ningde era fell sharply, which also aroused widespread media attention. "Ningde era fell sharply, the market value loss exceeded 100 billion, the industrial chain collectively fell", "Ning Wang" fell sharply with the collapse of the ChiNext board, is this round of decline pregnant with new opportunities? "What is the root cause of the sharp decline in the Ningde era"...
Behind these very attractive headlines represent different views of media people. On the one hand, the view is that "the stock price of CATL fell due to the contradiction with Xiaopeng Automobile, and Xiaopeng decided to reduce the battery supply of CATL and introduce AVIC lithium battery as a new major battery supplier." The position of the battery brother in the Ningde era is precarious. ”
On the other hand, it is believed that "the Market Share of the Ningde Era in the field of power batteries exceeds 30%, surpassing the second place (LG New Energy's market share of 20.3% in 2021) by 10 percentage points, avian lithium battery as a dark horse, although menacing, but to compete with the Ningde Era, that is a fool's dream." There is only one reason for the decline in the stock price of the Ningde era: the fixed increase. The target of the fixed increase is suppressing the stock price in order to obtain the chips of the low price fixed increase, which is the fundamental reason. ”
……
This was the mainstream debate at the time, so what was the reason for the recent stock price fluctuations in the Ningde era? Is there a problem with the company's operation?
On the evening of January 27, CATL issued a pre-increase announcement for 2021 performance: "The company expects to achieve a net profit of 14 billion yuan to 16.5 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 150.75% year-on-year to 195.52%. This means that the company's 2021 net profit pre-increase cap is nearly doubled.
Talk about the reasons for the growth in 2021. CATL said: "Mainly due to the increase in the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle and energy storage market in 2021, driving the growth of battery sales; the company's market development has made progress, new production capacity has been released, and production and sales have increased accordingly; the company has strengthened cost control and reduced the proportion of expenses to revenue." ”
The above performance forecast shows that the performance of the Ningde era in 2021 is impressive, and the sales of new energy vehicles in January this year rose sharply year-on-year, how is the performance of the Ningde era? Recently, a relevant person from the Ningde times revealed in an interview with Securities Daily: "Due to the strong demand side, the company will start production normally during the Spring Festival." ”
During the Spring Festival, Ningde Times was working overtime to produce, indicating that the company's operation is in good condition, why will the stock price fluctuate abnormally after the Spring Festival?
Recently, the wording of the agency's market analysis can be seen in the wording. Guotai Junan proposed: "After continuous adjustment, the price-performance ratio of track-type companies has gradually increased. Industrial Securities believes that "the congestion of popular tracks has fallen back to a low level." ”
The investment strategy of the above institutions, to put it bluntly, is that the stock prices of some track stocks in the early stage are too high, and now they may gradually return to value.
What is a track stock? Some media have proposed: "If the physical shipments of an industry have been increasing, then, even if the industry is on the cusp, on the track, it is definitely a growing industry, and many investors will take it for granted that this is a good industry and worth investing." ”
However, behind the phenomenon is a simple logic: under normal circumstances, the rapid development of an industry, and good profits, will attract profit-seeking capital into the industry, from the beginning of the shortage of supply, quickly into the weak balance of supply and demand, followed by overcapacity, serious overcapacity...
Some insiders told the "Car Selection Network": "The so-called track stocks exist in any era, home appliance stocks in the 90s, real estate stocks in the 2000s, telecommunications, media, technology stocks after 2010, and new energy stocks that have been hot in recent years... How lively it is now, how high the flames are, how cold the freezing point of the future may be. ”
This week, the track stock ushered in an upward trend, and the stock price of CATL began to rebound. However, Zhongyuan Securities believes that "the structural characteristics of the market are still relatively significant. It is worth noting that although the track stocks have rebounded in an all-round way, the trading volume of the two cities has not been effectively amplified, the characteristics of the stock game are obvious, and whether the ChiNext index can find a stage low still needs to be verified. ”
This time, we take the NINGDE era as an example to discuss with you the recent fluctuations in track stocks, and hope that individual investors will remain rational and cautious in the process of A-share style conversion.
(Image source: Internet)