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New energy vehicles and fuel vehicles continue to "go against the grain" in terms of growth.
On February 14, the Association disclosed the January national passenger car market analysis report. From the report, we can see that new energy vehicles show a strong growth trend - in January, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.092 million units, down 4.4% year-on-year; Among them, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 347,000 units, an increase of 132.0% year-on-year.
From the perspective of penetration rate, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is as high as 19.0%, an increase of more than 10 percentage points over the penetration rate of 8.4% in January 2021. The retail penetration rate was 16.6%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the same period in 2021.
(Source: Association of Passengers)
As we all know, 2022 is the last year of subsidies for new energy vehicles. With the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies and the rise in the price of basic resources such as lithium ore, new energy vehicle companies may face certain cost pressures in the future, and from the perspective of market feedback, users also have a certain degree of consensus and expectations for the price changes after the decline of new energy.
In this context, how will the growth rate of new energy vehicles evolve, and what development opportunities will car companies face? Let's find out with the latest data reports from the automotive industry.
Diversified efforts, more than 10 car companies wholesale sales exceeded 10,000
Combined with the January production and sales data of many car companies, it is not difficult to find that new energy vehicles are gradually becoming the sales highlights of car companies.
According to the production and sales data disclosed by BYD (01211), in January 2022, the company's automobile sales were 95,400 units, an increase of 125.05% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was about 93,200 units, an increase of 361.73% year-on-year, and the growth rate was remarkable.
The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales of the "new forces" of car manufacturing should not be underestimated: in January, Xiaopeng Automobile's monthly delivery volume was 13,000 units, an increase of 115% year-on-year; Ideal Cars (02015) followed with 12,000 units delivered monthly, up 128% year-on-year; Nezha and WEILAI delivered 11,000 units and 0.97 million units respectively, an increase of 402% and 33.6% year-on-year.
At the same time, the new energy passenger car market also showed the development characteristics of "diversification" in January. Take the composition of BYD's new energy vehicle sales in January, its pure electric and plug-in hybrid sales are equally divided - during the period, pure electric sales were 46,386, plug-in hybrid sales were 46,540, jointly consolidating the leading position of its own brand new energy.
If the growth rate of the above-mentioned new energy vehicle companies still cannot explain the current development trend of new energy vehicles, it is better to take a look at the development speed of new energy vehicles of traditional car companies.
According to the production and sales data disclosed by relevant car companies, in January, the sales volume of GAC Group (02238) was 237,200 units, an increase of 9.16% year-on-year, of which the sales of new energy vehicles were 19,121 units, an increase of 115.21% year-on-year, achieving double growth. In the same period, SAIC Motor achieved automobile sales of 455,600 units, an increase of 13.02% year-on-year, of which 72,200 new energy vehicles, an increase of 25.54%.
In addition, the data disclosed by the Association further shows the development trend of penetration into the new energy vehicle business to traditional car companies.
According to statistics, there were 11 car companies with wholesale sales of more than 10,000 in January, namely: BYD 93,101, Tesla China 59,845, SAIC-GM-Wuling 40,007, Chery Automobile 21,179, Geely Automobile 17,036, GAC Aean 16,031, SAIC Passenger Car 14,414, Great Wall Motor 13,781, Xiaopeng Automobile 12,922, Ideal Car 12,268, and Nezha Car 11,009.
From the above data, it is not difficult to see that among these 11 companies, only 3 are new car-making forces, and the remaining 8 are traditional car companies, which means that traditional car companies are gradually penetrating into the new energy vehicle market.
A year before the subsidy was withdrawn, new energy vehicles accelerated the release or steady growth?
On the last day of 2021, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2022 was officially implemented.
The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022, saying that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% compared with 2021, and the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will be terminated on December 31, 2021. This also means that 2022 will be the last year of the subsidy policy, in other words, new energy vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer enjoy the new energy subsidy policy.
With the official landing of this policy, the growth pressure on new energy vehicles has also been transmitted to car companies.
Some insiders said that after the subsidy decline of 30%, the proportion of subsidy amount to the car price will be further reduced, especially the subsidy of less than 5,000 yuan for plug-in hybrid models and the terminal discount of tens of thousands of fuel vehicles no longer have any competitive advantage, and the new energy market will further turn to market-driven. In addition, under the subsidy decline, the cost pressure of car companies will also increase, the profit margin will face challenges, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate with better cost performance will be further improved under the condition of unchanged technical indicators.
However, combined with the policy trend, in the joint promotion of the "double carbon" goal and the "double integral" policy, new energy vehicles will still maintain a high growth trend in the future.
According to the research report data released by Minsheng Securities, the long-term forecast is that "the global demand for new energy vehicles continues to improve, and the penetration rate growth rate is broad", and it is expected that the penetration rate of domestic and global new energy vehicle sales will reach 50% in 2030, the domestic new energy vehicle sales will be 17.68 million, and the global new energy vehicle sales will exceed 55 million.
(Source: Minsheng Securities)
It should be noted that since 2022 is the last year of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, this will also accelerate the release of new energy vehicle demand in 2022, and 2023 will undoubtedly become a growth pressure point.
Huachuang Securities Research Report pointed out that it is expected that the domestic new energy vehicle market will further continue the high growth trend in 2021, superimposed on the early release of purchase demand in 2023, sales in 2022 are expected to be further boosted, and the annual sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 5 million. In addition, due to the large amount of subsidy decline in 2023, it will inhibit the demand for car purchases to a certain extent. However, overall, under the wave of increasing penetration of new energy, it is expected that new energy passenger vehicles will maintain a growth trend in 2023.
Based on the above, it can be seen that although the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles is about to reach the stage of "complete withdrawal", under the favorable conditions of the "double carbon" goal and the "double integral" policy, the development wave of new energy vehicles replacing fuel vehicles is still the trend of the times, and the development space of the industry can be expected.
In this context, choosing opportunities and timing to lay out the field of new energy vehicles is a good choice for investors.
Among them, Wanlian Securities said that the automobile industry is at the time of industrial change, of which autonomous driving new energy is expected to become the main theme, it is expected that the penetration rate of intelligent vehicles in 2022 is expected to accelerate, it is recommended to focus on intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and other suppliers of intelligent core components of automobiles.
Zheshang Securities also pointed out that with the downstream OEMs pattern changes, the new forces and the head of the independent market share will continue to increase, the electric intelligence era of model iteration speed to accelerate the car companies to respond to the requirements of service efficiency of parts and components enterprises greatly improved, the past solidified zero relationship is expected to break, the domestic parts industry chain rises with the trend, while the acceleration of electric intelligence has spawned a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends, optimistic about the rise of domestic production and electric intelligence, recommended to pay attention to four major segments: integrated die casting, driving intelligence, Cockpit intelligence, passenger car seat localization.
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