Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, researcher Qiu Menglin) news, when the A-share sentiment fell into the freezing point, Ning Wang once again played the role of "savior".
As of the close of trading on February 15, the ChiNext board rose sharply by 3.09%, of which Ningwang's contribution points peaked at 16.4, BYD and Enjie shares ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, 6.76 and 4.96, respectively; Yaomao rose and stopped, contributing the second point in the Shanghai Composite Index 1.64, second only to Moutai 0.01.
The cause of recession is prosperity, and the cause of prosperity is recession.
The new energy vehicle industry and the pharmaceutical industry have been fanatically sought after by the market, so after all the messy storm noise, is it to regain value? Or do you value price?
We can't predict what we're going to face, but at least we can look for some clues from the lessons of history to gauge what stage the industry trend is at. Neither blind value investment nor reckless price speculation.
At present, the new energy vehicle industry is in the "shun" stage. "Straightening out" is "shun".
The new energy automobile industry index bottomed out at 595.80 points in 2019 and pulled back after hitting a record high of 1659.46 in early December 2021; there were a total of 4 band structure main rises.
The first was a reversal of the downward trend from February to April 2019. It is also the first correction trend of the industry to improve.
According to the data released by the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the bulk sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 159751 units in December 2018, an increase of 19.0% month-on-month and 79.1% year-on-year, of which plug-in hybrid increased by 116.0% year-on-year, and pure electric vehicles increased by 50.0%. From January to December, the wholesale number of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.008 million units, an increase of 88.5% year-on-year, higher than the growth rate in 2017.
At the policy level, on January 8, 2019, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that although the overall size of China's auto market in 2018 was close to 30 million vehicles, the market potential still exists, and consumers still have the need for reasonable consumption, green consumption and upgraded consumption. Auto products have been explored from the urban market to the rural market, and the National Development and Reform Commission is considering formulating relevant policies to encourage consumers at this level to buy cars and other consumption behaviors.
The second time is the rebound from the beginning of December 2019 to the end of February 2020, this period was affected by the systemic risk of the global epidemic attack, short replenishment, long margin call more speculative nature, in the future, this logic is not easy to copy. The outbreak of the epidemic has interrupted the normal circulation and economic development of the global supply chain.
From the fundamental traceability, in 2018, the annual production and sales of automobiles turned negative year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline in production and sales in 2019 further expanded, and the overall inventory pressure increased. As of October 2019, new energy passenger vehicles have continued to be sluggish for seven consecutive months. The Association announced that new energy passenger car sales in October were 65,600 units, down 43% year-on-year and slightly up 1% month-on-month. A-segment sales of 28,500 units, a slight increase of 7% year-on-year, a slight increase of 2% month-on-month, the performance is relatively stable; pure electric A0 and plug-in hybrid models sales fell by 40%/43% respectively, and demand showed a weak trend. This rebound can be said to be an "accident", but it does not violate the time mismatch and delay logic of the secondary market and the industry.
The third time is the rebound from the end of May to the end of November 2020, this wave of rise has laid the position of the lithium battery industry chain in the hearts of market participants as the "goddess of victory", and it is also this time that lithium ore, cathode materials, anode materials, charging piles, electrolytes, separators, cobalt, nickel and later salt lake lithium, solid-state batteries, sodium batteries, power exchange business and other electric vehicle-related concepts have become hot words. The market outlook for new energy vehicles is warm and "clear".
On the one hand, the impact of the epidemic has been alleviated, and the global industrial chain has gradually resumed work and production, continuing to drive the growth of supply and demand; on the other hand, Tesla's "catfish" has invigorated the automotive industry. In April 2020, Tesla Model 3 launched the online configuration pre-selection and booking service for domestic long-range and high-performance models. In 2020, it achieved a counter-trend increase in production and sales, achieving production of 102,700 units, an increase of 33.2% year-on-year, down 2.1% month-on-month; and delivering 88,000 units, an increase of 40.3% year-on-year, down 21.1% month-on-month, setting a record for the best in history in the first quarter. Tesla achieved revenue of $31.5 billion in 2020, YoY+28%, and a net profit attributable to the mother of $721 million.
In 2020, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.366 million units and 1.367 million units, respectively, on the basis of the adverse impact of the epidemic, it still increased by 7.5% and 13% year-on-year, respectively, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 5.4%, an increase of 0.5Pcts year-on-year. Among them, the annual sales volume of new energy passenger cars reached 1.247 million units, and the penetration rate reached 6.2%. Among them, in December, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles set a single-month production and sales record, with production of 235,000 units, up 58% year-on-year and up 19% month-on-month; sales reached 248,000 units, up 52% year-on-year and 24% month-on-month on the basis of last year's high base.
In terms of power batteries, the total installed power of the TOP10 companies in December was about 11.87GWh, accounting for 92% of the total installed capacity. Among them, the Ningde era achieved an installed power battery capacity of 6.79GWh, with a market share of about 52%; the installed share of lithium iron phosphate was also the first ternary in 2020, accounting for 53% of the share in December.
The fourth time is from May to December 2021, the entire industrial chain under the leadership of Ning Wang and BYD to complete the summit to the top. But with the Ningde era falling below 500 yuan and BYD falling below 250 yuan, the carnival was suspended. The "two kings" just happen to be the upstream lithium battery representatives of the new energy vehicle industry chain and the leaders of the downstream vehicles.
There is no unprovoked rise.
In 2021, domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 3.545 million units, an increase of 159.5% year-on-year; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 13.5%. Sales of new energy vehicles in eight European countries reached 1.813 million units, up 69% year-on-year. Sales of new energy vehicles in the United States reached 652,000 units.
Upstream materials, as of January 16, 2022, according to the SMM quotation, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 320,000-330,000 yuan / ton, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 300,000-310,000 yuan / ton, and the part of the auction sales price is 355,000-36.5 million yuan / ton; the quotation of lithium hydroxide is about 270,000-300,000 yuan / ton. Since the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, this round of increases has reached 150,000 / ton. Lithium hexafluorophosphate is up more than 400% in 2021. Nevertheless, spot is currently a state of insecurity. More worrying is the lack of resources to guarantee supply, accept the reality of resource shortages.
At present, the plate has the tendency to return to the mountainside camp for repair.
Is it necessarily a bad thing? The new energy vehicle industry just needs to be straightened out first, and then start.
With the popularization of electrification, intelligence and affordability, the new energy vehicle industry has shifted from the past policy-driven to demand-driven.
Data released by SNE Research, a South Korean market research institute, shows that in 2021, the global installed capacity of power batteries reached 296.8 GWh, an increase of 102.3% year-on-year. CATL Times, LG New Energy and Panasonic ranked in the top three. Among them, the installed capacity of CATL is 16.5 GWh, with a market share of 37.9%, and it has won the global battery installed capacity champion for the fifth consecutive year. In 2021, global new energy passenger car sales were 6.4954 million units, an increase of 108% year-on-year; of which the top three sales were: Tesla 936,000 units, BYD 594,000 units, and SAIC-GM-Wuling 456,000 units.
It is expected that the domestic market sales in 2022 are expected to be 6 million vehicles (including exports), an increase of more than 70% year-on-year; global electric vehicle sales are expected to exceed the 10 million mark, more than +60% year-on-year. It is estimated that in 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales will be 10 million +, the penetration rate of electric vehicles will exceed 40%, and the compound growth rate will reach 54% in 2020-2025, corresponding to about 534GWh of domestic power battery demand in 2025.
At the same time, driven by the growth of demand, the industrial chain has formed price transmission, and the production capacity and price of power batteries have risen. It is estimated that the global new supply of lithium carbonate in 2022 will be 170,000-200,000 tons, corresponding to the supply capacity of 280gwh + batteries, to meet the 60% + demand growth of electric vehicles, and the supply of lithium carbonate in 2022 will be tightly balanced.
At present, leading enterprises are actively investing in expanding production and increasing overseas exports to consolidate the position of the industry, and the global market share of installed capacity of the CATL era will increase to 31.8% in 2021, continuing to rank first. The expansion of industrial capital and the increase in capital expenditure of enterprises represent the voting of mainstream market participants on the future development trend. In terms of new technologies, 4680 batteries, blade batteries, sodium batteries, solid-state batteries, fuel cells, etc. are promoting the industry upwards. Among them, the 4680 battery through the large cell + full polar ear technology, improve the energy density, production efficiency, fast charging performance, reduce the cost of the battery, Tesla and Panasonic is expected to start mass production, Ningde era, Yiwei lithium energy has a layout.
Source: Company announcement, Xinzhu information
Preparation and progress of new battery technologies
The new technology of power battery, the current feasibility is 4680 large cylindrical battery. The battery capacity is increased by 5 times compared to the 2170 battery, and the mileage is increased by 16%. Due to the full-pole ear structure, there is no need to add pole ear mounting, but it improves the production efficiency and charge and discharge rate; and the cylindrical battery heat dissipation area is larger to ensure the thermal stability of the battery.
Tesla was the first to be released in 2020, and plans to install it in early 2022 and install it in the Model Y, after which Cyberruck and Semi are also expected to be equipped. BMW is close behind, the United Nations battery suppliers to develop 4695 and other models of large cylindrical batteries; Panasonic plans to start trial production of 4680 batteries in Japan in 2022 H1, the technical goal of 4680 battery product development has been basically achieved; LG aims to complete the trial production line before Panasonic begins mass production, and is expected to mass production in 2022-2023; Ewell Lithium can plan 20GWh of large cylindrical battery production capacity for passenger cars; Ningde era: accelerate the pace of research and development, and production capacity is expected to land in Shanghai.
Solid-state battery: Ganfeng lithium industry technology advantages are outstanding, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Ningbo Materials cooperation to build a solid-state lithium battery research and development pilot production line, by the end of 2021, the company's solid-state battery has been installed on the Dongfeng E70. Huineng Technology and Jiawei New Energy are rapidly industrialized.
The CATL era has made progress in the research and development of polymer and sulfide solid-state batteries; BYD has begun to try small-scale applications of solid-state batteries; and Tianqi Lithium has invested in Beijing Weilan and Solid Energy to strengthen technical reserves. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Tianci Materials, Wanxiang 123 and so on have also increased investment in research and development in solid-state batteries.
The cycle life and energy density of sodium batteries are lower than those of lithium batteries, and there are disadvantages in the field of power batteries. However, safety, high and low temperature, fast charging performance is better, so it has a broad application space in energy storage, two-wheeler and other markets. Related companies that have been laid out include Catalpa Times, Zhongke Haina, Huayang Shares, Zhejiang Nachuang (40% owned by Zhejiang Pharmaceutical) and so on.
The energy density of the second generation of blade batteries reaches 150Wh/kg after the group, and IT is expected to achieve an energy density of more than 180Wh/kg in 2025, and as of the first half of 2021, BYD's pure electric series has been replaced with blade batteries.
It is foreseeable that the new energy industry is that the volume and price of the industrial chain will rise together and can be smoothly transmitted, while the volume of enterprises will rise together, and the enterprises that come to the inflection point of production capacity and higher price elasticity are expected to continue to benefit.