Text | Financial Street Old Lee
Recently, the buyer and seller's new researchers have been very hard, and everyone is following up the Ningde era, after all, even Zeng Yuqun has come forward because of the market value problem. As the vane of the ChiNext Board and the leader of growth stocks, no matter how the market changes, catallic times has always been the target that institutions pay the most attention to.
In the first week of the opening of the market in February (February 7 to February 11), the Ningde era had 4 days of decline, the weekly decline of more than 17%, the stock price once fell below 500 yuan, touching the annual line, and the market value of a single week evaporated by more than 200 billion, equivalent to two Changan Automobiles.
Rumors about the Ningde era were everywhere, Lao Li and everyone chatted together, after the Spring Festival, what rumors of the Ningde era were circulated in the market? How do secondary market institutions view the NINGDE era?
What happened after the Spring Festival?
There are many rumors in the capital market, but such a rhythmic and hierarchical rumor as the Ningde era is still the first time, let's see what rumors the market spread in the week of the big fall in the Ningde era:
On Feb. 7, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security added 33 Chinese entities to its "unverified list," and some agencies later suggested that CATL could also be on the negative list.
On February 10, the market rumors that due to the excessive weight of the ChiNext board in the Ningde era, the ChiNext board was deeply kidnapped, and it may be "excluded" from the ChiNext weight index.
On February 11, some media broke the news that CATL and Tesla talked about collapse, and Tesla and BYD negotiated a blade battery purchase order.
On February 12, although it was a weekend, the market rumors had large households with large margins concentrated on fake news to short the Ningde era.
A week of rumors led to a comprehensive decline in the Ningde era, and due to the high weight of the Ningde era in the ChiNext index, the ChiNext board also fell sharply last week.
On February 13, CATL issued a statement on this:
Recently, a series of malicious rumors about the Ningde era being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the ChiNext weight index, and talking with Tesla have appeared on the network platform, which have caused market misunderstandings and misinterpretations, affecting the reputation of the company, rumors are unfounded, and the nature is bad, and the Ningde era has been reported.
On February 14, CATL held an investor exchange meeting for specific research, Hillhouse Capital, Tencent Investment, Temasek, Sequoia Capital, Fidelity Fund, Warburg Pincus Investment and other head funds participated in the exchange, ANDC Chairman Zeng Yuqun, Board Secretary and Deputy General Manager Jiang Li, and Financial Director Zheng Shu gave a comprehensive answer to market rumors and the operation of CATL.
Generally speaking, specific research will basically not disclose research information, but on the evening of February 15, CATL still released the minutes of this investor relations research activity, opening up a large amount of core information of the CATL era to the whole industry, including technology, planning, cost, etc. Many researchers discussed that the NINGDE era was really forced by rumors.
Some small media love to spread rumors, small floaters love to spread rumors, but rumors are always not long-lasting, starting this week, several rumors are self-defeating:
1, on the issue of US sanctions, CATL made it clear in the conference call that the only thing that relies on the United States now is the chip in the BMS, but the chip process is not high, 28nm is enough, and the current domestic technology is already available.
2. On the question of weight, the CSRC's lack of voice is the best answer.
3. Regarding the collapse of the Ningde era and Tesla, the Ningde era debunked rumors. At the exchange meeting, the leader of the Ningde era said a word to prove that BYD grabbed the single is false news: Tesla uses BYD's battery, BYD's market sales staff must be to promote their own batteries Tesla is in use, Tesla will be stupid enough to use BYD's batteries like this? Seems to make a lot of sense
4, the problem of short-selling of large households, it is not true to look at this now, because the amount of margin in the Ningde era has not changed much.
Since its listing, the Ningde era has been rumored continuously, but it has always been self-defeating.
How has the market changed?
In fact, not only the Ningde era, the whole market is facing a situation of more than one kill, especially public funds, which have entered a "negative cycle" state. The core problem of the market is that the bad mood leads to insufficient net subscription of the public offering, and then there are irrational fluctuations, just like the valuation at the end of 2018.
In the era of fundamental research, the assessment of public funds is not how much money a stock makes, it is a month, a quarter, half a year, a year of relative ranking, the reason for buying and selling is more fundamental changes, not simply pulling up shipments. Although some funds are currently liquidated, the general direction of the market has not changed, after all, in the three days of the opening of the week, catallic times rebounded more than 8%.
Many researchers lamented that after a week of irrational decline, the target is indeed very cheap, and it has not really used the value investment bottom valuation to buy stocks for many years, the last time was at the end of 2018, and the later things are clear to everyone.
From a fundamental point of view, CATL has been developing well, on the eve of the Spring Festival (January 28), CATL issued a performance forecast, it is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021 will be 14 billion yuan to 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 150.75% to 195.52% year-on-year.
From the single quarter performance, the net profit of CATL in Q4 of 2021 is expected to be 6.249 billion yuan - 8.749 billion yuan, an increase of 91% - 167% from the previous quarter, as a reference, the total net profit in the first three quarters of last year was only 7.75 billion yuan. Whether from an annual or quarterly point of view, this is the best level of profitability since the establishment of the CATL era.
On the other hand, the domestic new energy market still remains prosperous, in January 2022, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars increased by 132% year-on-year to 347,000 units, the market penetration rate reached 16.6%, although the absolute sales data fell by 27% month-on-month, but the penetration rate is increasing, the market recognition.
Many researchers believe that the Catalpinium era has a stable supply chain, midstream materials from domestic suppliers, upstream lithium resources layout Argentine salt lake, African lithium ore, nickel resources locked in Indonesia, while CTP / CTC, manganese iron lithium / ultra-high nickel, PET foil, sodium battery, power exchange and other technologies are leading, deeply bound to the mainstream supply chain, therefore, its core technology, materials, resources are not dependent on North America, Sino-US relations changes have little impact on it.
From the market point of view, the United States car companies rely too much on Japanese and Korean battery companies, the introduction of low-cost, high-quality, stable supply chain demand is strong, Cataline Era into the North American market in line with the interests of American car companies, in the competitive relationship, cooperation is greater than competition.
Under such fundamentals, how does the market value of the Ningde era go?
At present, many institutions on the Cataline era in 2022 shipment forecasts for 300GWh, doubling year-on-year, of which power shipments of 250 GWh, corresponding to the global share is expected to increase to 35%+; energy storage and two-wheelers are expected to reach 50 GWh, based on this data forecast in 2022 we give 60 times the valuation, its target price is at least 800 yuan or more, which is a relatively ideal calculation.
From the macro data of the first quarter, the current funds have been from the central bank to the financial system and entities, follow-up with the stock market liquidity increased, in the current market bottoming out, the future market opportunities need to appear in Q2, in the current new energy market market, a quarterly report of the Ningde era is determined, Lao Li believes that the certainty of the industry is the biggest guarantee for the valuation of the secondary market in the Ningde era.
Ningde era is a heavy stock of many institutions, any negative wind and grass will trigger a multiplier effect, such as the 811 battery safety incident of that year once led to the Ningde era fell to a stop, many researchers joked that last week, the market was worse, Ningde era was not hit to the stop and close.
Lao Li has been saying that in the face of such a company as the Ningde era, the decline in stock prices is only the thinking of speculators, and we should pay more attention to the future growth logic rather than the short-term correction logic. Following the Ningde era is on a long track, with this great enterprise, to be a friend of time.