"King Ning" called the police! Talking with Tesla, being excluded from the ChiNext weight index, and being sanctioned by the United States? It's all rumors

"King Ning" finally struck!

Source: Securities Times

Author: Tang Wei

At noon today, CATL issued a solemn statement on its official WeChat account "CATL NINGDE Times", saying that a series of malicious rumors have recently appeared on the network platform, and the company has officially reported the case to the public security organs.

At noon on February 13, CATL issued a statement saying: Recently, a series of malicious rumors about CATL being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the ChiNext weight index, and negotiating with Tesla have recently appeared on the online platform, which has caused market misunderstandings and misinterpretations and affected corporate reputation. Rumors are unfounded and bad in nature.

The statement revealed that in order to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, on February 12, 2022, the company has officially reported the case to the public security organs and will pursue legal responsibility for rumor-mongers according to law.

01

Rumors abound

Shares fell 30 percent in February

As the world's "power battery brother", Ningde era is the most dazzling existence of A shares in the past two years, the stock price has risen nearly ten times, known as "Ning Wang", and its founder Zeng Yuqun's wealth has also risen, once topped China's richest man. But in the last 2 months, the situation has changed.

As of the latest, NINGDE Times reported 489.99 yuan / share, has fallen to the annual position, the latest market value of 1142 billion yuan. Since the Spring Festival, the Ningde era (300750) has fallen by 17.32%, and the market value has evaporated by nearly 240 billion yuan. If the time is extended a bit, after hitting a new high of 692 yuan / share on December 3, 2021, by the close of the market on February 11, 2022, the peak of the Cataline Era fell by nearly 30%, and the ChiNext index fell by about 21% in the same period. According to the third quarter of 2021, the shareholders of the stock are 134,200, and the average loss of the shareholders of the Ningde era reaches 1.7823 million yuan.

Previously, some market analysts believed that the decline in the Ningde era was mainly caused by rumors.

Rumor has been that the U.S. Department of Commerce recently added 33 Chinese entities to its unverified list, including Guangzhou Haimuxing Laser Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Haimuxing, a supplier of the Ningde era. The market is worried that the Ningde era will be affected.

On February 8, in response to the online transmission of information such as "CATL is seeking help from professional institutions in the United States to consult the possibility of sanctions by the United States", CATL responded: This is false information.

Rumor two, also on February 8, a screenshot from a so-called "securities agency" report said: According to the feedback from relevant insiders to the securities society, as of the beginning of the new year, the Ningde era has triggered systemic risks, and the relevant regulatory authorities are considering removing the Weight of the ChiNext Index from the Ningde Era.

However, according to the reporter's inquiry, there is no media called "Securities Agency", and the original text of the screenshot has been deleted.

Rumor three, there are news and investment platforms are talking about Tesla or with the Ningde era "talk collapse", BYD is about to reap the benefits of the fisherman. This is perhaps the most lethal rumor for the stock price of the Ningde era.

How much credibility is there in the above rumors? The attitude of the Ningde era is very clear: malicious rumors, alarm handling.

02

Rarely bearish by macro chiefs

Coincidentally, when rumors were circulating, on February 11, an article titled "How Much Can the Ningde Era Fall?" A Quantitative Analysis Perspective" research report brush screen, signed by Wei Zhichao, chief economist of Capital Securities, and Wang Weiran, macro researcher. The report was released at the same time as its personal WeChat account and the Capital Securities Research.

The research report caused an uproar in the A-share market, and the chief economist personally commented on individual stocks, which is extremely rare in the industry. The main point of the research report is that the trend of Moutai in Guizhou in 2021 has a strong similarity with the trend of the Ningde era in 2022, referring to the trend of Guizhou Moutai, the Ningde era may not have bottomed out in the short term, and it is preferred to ship at a high price. Through fitting, the research report judged that the adjustment of the Ningde era may not be over, and there may still be 20% downside in the future.

According to public information, Wei Zhichao is currently the chief economist of Capital Securities and has obtained a double bachelor's degree in finance + mathematics, a master's degree and a doctorate in economics from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Peking University and Brown University, respectively. He has successively served as the head of macro research in Guotai Junan, Huaxia Fund, Anxin Securities and other institutions. In November 2020, he joined the Research and Development Department of Beijing Capital Securities.

However, soon, Wei Zhichao quickly deleted the report on his personal WeChat public account. The "bearish" Ningde times teleconference originally scheduled to be held at 20:00 on the evening of the 11th was also temporarily cancelled, and the keynote speaker was Wei Zhichao.

Interestingly, this is not the first time that the Ningde era has encountered "extraordinary" research reports. In August 2021, three analysts from Guosen Securities predicted the 2060 performance of CATL in the research report, saying that the revenue volume of the energy storage business of CATL in 2060 will be about 150-200 billion yuan, and the hub will reach 171.4 billion yuan; the corresponding net profit center for energy storage will be 17.1 billion yuan. Two months later, the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a warning letter to him for administrative supervision measures. The Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau said that the research report's forecast of the 2060 revenue center of the energy storage business of the Ningde era has some hypotheses that are not prudent enough and the analysis logic is not rigorous enough.

03

Mainstream institutions remain bullish

In addition to the capital securities short, most institutions continue to be optimistic about the Ningde era.

CATL released its 2021 annual performance forecast on January 27, and is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 14-16.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 151%-196% year-on-year; corresponding to the net profit attributable to the mother in the fourth quarter of 6.2-8.7 billion yuan, an increase of 181% -293% year-on-year. Nomura Oriental International's latest research report believes that the global electric vehicle market will maintain a strong growth trend in 2022, and CATL will continue to occupy a market leadership position, it is expected that the power battery / energy storage system business in 2021-2023 revenue compound annual growth rate of 70/235%, 2023 energy storage system contribution to revenue is expected to reach 20%. Maintained the overweight rating on the company and raised the target price to 722 yuan / share (previously 700 yuan / share), corresponding to 60 times the 2023 EPS (12.04 yuan).

UBS released a research report that a series of studies have shown that the CATL era has ushered in a buying opportunity, with a target price of 700 yuan. In terms of performance, UBS believes that the 2021 financial report of CATL is 30% to 40% higher than the general expectation, and there is still a lot of room for growth in 2022.

Huaxin Securities recently believes that overall, the company's performance is eye-catching, the global market share has increased significantly, and its global power battery leadership position has been continuously consolidated through multiple dimensions such as technology, product iteration, and cost advantages, and the company is expected to continue to lead the industry with its strong technology and cost advantages. The company is expected to ship about 130GWh of lithium batteries in 2021, and is expected to more than double the growth in 2022.

Soochow Securities pointed out that the 2021Q4 company relies on large-scale upgrading + CTP and other technical upgrades, superimposed high-nickel batteries to accelerate penetration, battery cost reduction is obvious, profitability and pressure resistance is strong. The company has taken the lead in developing applications such as high nickel, lithium manganese iron, silicon carbon anode, PET copper foil aluminum foil, etc., and it is expected that the company's technological leadership will be maintained for a long time. 2022 70x, corresponding to a target price of 905.8 yuan, maintain a "buy" rating.

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