Economist Ren Zeping is silenced?
According to media reports, Ren Zeping's Weibo account, which has 3.573 million followers, was banned for two weeks.
The cause is suspected to be Ren Zeping's great cause of fertility for China a few days ago, and proposed:
It is recommended that the central bank print 2 trillion yuan of money every year to encourage fertility, and 50 million more children will be born in 10 years.
At that time, as soon as such a brilliant idea came out, the masses directly boiled to the point of frenzy to report.
In the words of the comment section: this is mainly unworthy of the Nobel Prize!
But not the Prize for Scientific Invention, but the Nobel Bragging Prize.
First, take a look at his article titled "The Solution to Low Fertility Found - China Fertility Report".
The paper is more than 10,000 words, and now it cannot be seen, only a preface.
To the effect that Ren Zeping believes that the main reason for low fertility is that the cost of having children is too high and the house price is too high.
This is actually true, and it can be called a reproductive problem for all mankind.
Then Ren Zeping said that he thought of a good way to print 2 trillion yuan.
The millennium plan was solved by the word "printing money"? Don't worry, Ren Zeping has his reason.
On Weibo, Ren Zeping gave a detailed explanation of the great cause of "printing money".
For example, why is it printing 2 trillion.
Ren Zeping explained that OECD countries (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) encourage birth-related household social welfare spending as a proportion of GDP by 2%-3%.
China's GDP is 110 trillion yuan, so the fund for encouraging fertility should be 2 trillion yuan.
Note that Ren Zeping is not talking about printing a total of 2 trillion yuan to encourage fertility, but printing 2 trillion yuan per year and printing 20 trillion yuan per decade to encourage fertility.
With this 20 trillion yuan, it can help China give birth to an additional 50 million newborns in a decade.
With more than 50 million people in a decade, China's fertility rate will soon return to healthy levels.
Becoming a first-class power is just around the corner.
In addition, Ren Zeping also intimately pointed out that do not worry about social fairness.
Children born are inherently future builders of the nation, and it is unfair not to give encouragement and support and cash subsidies.
When implemented, high-income families have less childcare subsidies and low-income families have more childcare subsidies.
As for the inflation problem that everyone is worried about, Ren Zeping also thought of it.
He felt that as long as the special funds were dedicated, they would not swell.
To sum up, it is necessary to use planned economy to develop family planning.
In this comment area, they have said:
Go out and buy something for 1000 yuan to start in the future? Dreaming of returning to the Republic of China?
After the first year's $2 trillion subsidy is completed, the second year's $2 trillion is subsidized to 15 million babies born in the second year.
That is to say, babies born in the first year can only eat the old age after 75-85 after receiving 13,300 yuan. It's bad.
The Paper also posted:
Macroeconomic regulation and control and the formulation of population policies are a scientific and precise decision-making process, not a "Ren Zeping-style" sensationalism.
That's the problem, the great economist, usually analyze the problem is also the head of the tao.
Why is it that when it comes to giving advice, it is "sensationalism"?
It can only be said that this should be Ren Zeping's occupational disease.
Looking at Ren Zeping's resume, it can be found that in 2014, he once wrote: "The party gave me wisdom and gave me guts, and 5,000 points is not a dream."
In 2016, he also said that he wanted to"take the party constitution and rush into the A shares."
At the end of 2017, Ren Zeping officially joined Evergrande as the chief economist of Evergrande Group and the president of Evergrande Economic Research Institute.
At that time, the salary printed to him by the Xu family was 1250000/month.
Then he predicted that China's housing prices in first- and second-tier cities would triple in the next 10 years, and house prices in third- and fourth-tier cities would triple.
Looking back now, it cannot be wrong, but his suggestion is that Evergrande should add 1.48 billion to 1.74 billion square meters of housing demand at least a year.
It may be that Ren Zeping gave Xu Jiayin confidence, so today Evergrande's on-balance sheet liabilities reached 1.95 trillion yuan.
According to the house price, it is really similar to Ren Zeping's prediction.
In March 2021, Ren Zeping announced his departure from Evergrande.
The reason for the departure was not elaborated, but after leaving, he shouted:
Real estate is the hardest bubble in China.
I don't know how Xu Jiayin felt when he heard this.
But then again, Ren Zeping can come up with the idea of printing money and giving birth to a baby, and he can indeed glimpse the fertility problem.
According to data from the Seventh National Population Census, the total fertility rate in 2020 will be as low as 1.3.
There are really fewer and fewer young people who have children.
The reason is also very simple, that is, many people think that making money is more important than falling in love.
After all, when you get married, you have to prepare a bride price to buy a house, take care of your children when you have a baby, and spend a lot of money on education.
No money where to raise it?
Just like, the cost of childcare in the ten major cities spread on the Internet is 2.76 million yuan in Beijing and 2.47 million yuan in Shanghai.
A month's salary can't support a child's summer cram school.
More importantly, if a child is born, the child will also have to face both the old and the young, and the birth is a sin.
This does not take into account their parents' pension expenses.
It is really passed down from generation to generation, and the loans are passed down from generation to generation.
Of course, it is not necessary that everyone does not want to be born because of this.
The premise is to remove obstacles to women's fertility and give fair rights and guarantees to the settlement, education, medical care and other aspects of children.
In other words, it's not that people don't want to have children, but they want to have children well.
Not only to be affordable, but also to raise well, not only material satisfaction, but also to give children enough love.
Therefore, fertility problems are really comprehensive decisions made by individuals and families based on the living environment and individual needs.
It needs to be comprehensively considered from many aspects, such as the policy environment, the cost of social parenting, and the specific conditions of individuals.
At this point, printing tens of billions is not necessarily useful.
In the words of the surging news: From this point of view, it is okay, Ren Zeping said it does not count.
Of course, we can't wait until all conditions are perfect before we get married and have children.
No one is born to be a parent.
But as long as you are willing to accompany your child to grow up and be willing to continue to learn and improve, you are a qualified parent.
In short, to be born or not to be born is a basic human right.
We cannot force people to become tools of fertility, but we should not hinder the life that really wants to be born because of the lag in policies and welfare.
No matter what kind of reproductive choices are made, it should be out of respect for life.
This is the prerequisite for fertility and the true value of procreation.
-Ends-
Images and sources:
"India 20 trillion to encourage the birth of a baby, Ren Zeping did not win the Nobel Prize heavenly reason is intolerable! Zhigu, 2022.01.11
"Ren Zeping, an Economist Who Doesn't Understand the Four Arithmetics", Snow Night Reading Idle Book, 2022.01.12
Why do so many young people not want to have children? ,2018.02.27
"On Ren Zeping's "Printing More than 2 Trillion To Encourage Fertility", I went to read his 10,000-word paper, write a story for you, 2022.01.11