On January 10, economist Ren Zeping, in his "Solution to Low Fertility – China's Fertility Report," mentioned the proposal to encourage post-75s and post-85s to have children through the establishment of fertility funds. "The central bank printed 2 trillion yuan more, and 10 years more than 50 million." His bold assertion subsequently sparked a heated discussion on social media.
On January 12, Ren Zeping was banned from Weibo for two weeks, not knowing whether his idea of printing money was too radical, but for the logistics industry in the transition from labor-intensive to technology-intensive, it is a good thing to have more children. The logistics industry has been positioned as a national basic, strategic and leading industry, but in recent years, it has fallen into difficulty in recruiting workers and retaining people.
There are more than 50 million employees in China's logistics industry, but even so, it is still unable to meet the logistics labor needs of the world's first express delivery country, the first road freight country, and the first shipping country. Even the takeaway industry is the same, the network article lamented: Meituan takeaway employees have a monthly salary of tens of thousands, but why is it so difficult to recruit?
Previously, palm chain media published an article "China's freight and express delivery, takeaway "labor shortage" anxiety has come" to analyze the impact of the ebb and flow of demographic dividends, interpret the demand for logistics robots and unmanned design. Taking 2 trillion raw babies is too radical, but from the perspective of strategic layout, can the international set up a smart logistics fund to support the development of unmanned logistics technology and equipment?
First, the downward trend of the population, the decline of the working-age population
In Ren Zeping's view, the impact of low fertility includes the shrinking labor force, the acceleration of aging, the imminent peak of the population, the disappearance of the demographic dividend, and the severe problem of leftover men.
(1) The total population has declined. Chinese population of 1.41 billion people is on the verge of negative growth. Ren Zeping predicts that Chinese will fall into negative growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and will begin to shrink sharply around 2050, and its global proportion in 2100 will drop from about 18% to 7% at present.
(2) The decline in the working-age population. The working-age population aged 15-64 peaked in 2010, the demographic dividend disappeared, and the working-age population aged 15-64 is expected to be significantly reduced by 23% in 2050 compared with 2020.
(3) Aging is accelerating. Due to the unprecedented aging speed and scale of family planning in China, China's aging will reach 13.5% in 2020, and it will enter a deeply aging society around 2021 and a super-aging society around 2033.
(4) The problem of getting old before getting rich is prominent. When the proportion of elderly people in the United States, Japan and South Korea reached 13.5%, the per capita GDP was above 25,000 US dollars, while China only had more than 10,000 US dollars. The aging of the population has made the contradiction between social security revenue and expenditure increasingly prominent, and the pension gap will increase day by day.
The harm of the population decline was gradually revealed, and Ren Zeping issued a proposal to print money and have a baby.
In the previous article of the palm chain, some netizens commented that the decline in fertility rate has only appeared in recent years and will not quickly react to the shortage of labor in the logistics industry. However, the disappearance of the demographic dividend since 2010, the gap in the age-appropriate labor force is accelerating, not to mention that the labor-intensive logistics industry can not get rid of the dependence on the "population" in the short term, compared with other industries, it is reasonable to have early "pain" in the labor shortage.
Second, the relationship between the logistics industry and "people" goes through three stages
On January 12, China's first five-year development plan for the digital economy, the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Digital Economy", was officially released, with the full text of 12 logistics and 10 supply chains, especially mentioning the vigorous development of smart logistics and encouraging the development of smart economy, including promoting "smart parks, automatic driving, unmanned distribution" and so on. But how to develop the unmanned logistics?
(Zhongtong Express recruitment data map)
Stage 1: Humanization of logistics
In the early stage of the development of the logistics industry, it is a typical labor-intensive industry, and in logistics scenarios such as express delivery, takeaway, LTL express, port terminals, park warehousing, and community distribution, almost all of them are inseparable from the figure of people. According to the latest data, the number of truck drivers in China is 17.2873 million; the number of registered crew members in China is 1.65 million; the number of registered pilots in China's civil aviation has reached more than 72,600, and the logistics labor market is huge.
Especially the courier industry. According to the Data of the State Post Bureau, in 2010, the number of express delivery employees in China was only 542,000, and in 2021, this number has reached nearly 4.5 million, an increase of 8 times in 10 years. With the rapid development of the industry, the logistics industry has absorbed a large number of social labor force employment.
The rapid development of China's e-commerce and logistics is based on the small three-wheeled running of countless courier brothers. The rise of China's express delivery and takeaway logistics is an errand economy supported by the demographic dividend.
Although the number of express delivery employees is increasing year by year, the rapidly growing demand for express delivery still makes the relationship between employment supply and demand more and more severe. In 2020, the number of express parcels in China reached 83 billion pieces, and the number of couriers was only more than 4 million. In 2021, 4.5 million couriers will send 108.5 billion pieces of couriers.
The increase in per capita delivery volume has led to problems such as lazy goods, express delays, lost damage, and delivery upstairs to break promises. When "people" alone can no longer promote the progress of the industry, the only way to achieve intelligence through science and technology and reduce the humanization scene.
Stage 2: Logistics man-machine interconnection
With the application of intelligent technologies such as information technology, automation control technology, and Internet of Things technology, the express logistics industry has embarked on a process from labor-intensive to knowledge-intensive, and gradually moved away from the manpower era of "hand-to-shoulder".
Since 2016, express delivery companies such as Tee Yida have successively introduced automated sorting equipment in the transfer center, according to reports, the equipment can reduce labor costs by 70%-80%. In 2018, mainstream express delivery companies basically began to deploy and apply automation equipment on a large scale in transit centers.
(Cainiao Network released handheld terminal Cainiao LEMO PDA)
But the deeper technology is the interconnected interaction between humans and smart machines. At the 2019 Global Smart Logistics Summit, Daniel Zhang, CEO of Alibaba Group and chairman of Cainiao Network, boldly imagined: "There must be a logistics equipment in the future, looking like a car, but it must not be a car." A small pieceman PDA can also be a part of its body. "This is the intelligent logistics equipment of human-machine interconnection, and at this summit, Gu Xuemei, then CTO of Cainiao Network, released cainiao LEMO, a new handheld terminal developed by Cainiao.
In 2020, Debon Logistics, which mainly promotes large-scale express delivery, showed off the mechanical skeleton of human-machine interconnection. Wearing this equipment, so that the frail girl can also carry oversized home appliances upstairs to deliver. The human-machine interconnection of logistics equipment and facilities has liberated more manpower and reduced the pressure of employment.
(Mechanical skeleton launched by Debon Logistics)
2021 China International Trade in Services Fair, the palm chain reporter walked into the rookie network booth to see the rookie smart glasses, the equipment is mainly used for the picking link of the warehouse, the picker wears smart glasses is equivalent to installing navigation on the eyes, no longer have to worry about how to pick goods.
(Rookie network smart glasses)
Stage 3: Unmanned logistics
Under the empowerment of artificial intelligence and deep learning algorithms, the application of autonomous driving, intelligent logistics robots, and terminal unmanned distribution technology, including unmanned vehicles, drones, and unmanned stations, is becoming the mainstream. Related technology companies are also attracting the attention of capital.
According to the incomplete statistics of the palm chain, there were a total of 242 investment and financing events in the logistics industry last year, of which the largest number of investment and financing events occurred in the field of logistics technology, reaching 179 times.
(1) Autonomous driving of freight. In the field of technology, autonomous driving has become an outlet for investment institutions in 2021, with a total of 14 investments and financings completed. Among them, Zebra Zhixing completed a capital increase of 3 billion yuan, and the investors include Alibaba Group, SAIC Group, SDIC China Merchants and Yunfeng Fund. In addition, mainline technology, which has built the world's largest fleet of self-driving trucks, has also received hundreds of millions of yuan in financing, as well as $300 million in yuanrong and $270 million in winche technology.
(2) Logistics robots. In 2021, there were 30 investment and financing events related to intelligent logistics robots, including the capital increase of 10 million yuan of blue core technology, a robot company invested in Tencent, jiazhi technology developed by mobile robot technology, which received 100 million yuan of B+ round financing, and logistics robot Jizhijia raised 500 million US dollars.
(Logistics robot launched by JD Logistics)
The application of logistics robots is mainly in the warehousing scenario, taking Jizhijia as an example, at present, through robots, AI algorithms and other technologies to provide intelligent handling, intelligent forklifts, intelligent sorting and intelligent warehouses and other products and services, so that logistics operations are more intelligent and efficient.
(3) Cargo drones. In the cargo drone market, Fengyi Technology, a drone company under SF, received a series A financing this year. Both SF and Shentong's large unmanned freighters have completed test flights. As early as 2015, SF's independent research and development of the flight control navigation system has been successful, the same year into the bureau also in the Yuantong and Jingdong Logistics, YTO Express and Taobao also launched a drone express experiment, Jingdong also set up a drone project team in 2015.
In the promotion of the terminal unmanned delivery business, there is also an urgent need for instant delivery business, especially in the takeaway industry. In 2016, Ele.me and Meituan have successively launched explorations of drone delivery services.
Third, the "technical cage" and the response to the ebb and flow of the demographic dividend
(1) The plight of logistics people
Income dilemma: According to the "2020 National Courier Grassroots Employment Status and Satisfaction Survey Report", the per capita number of couriers is increasing every year. In 2020, the number of couriers who deliver more than 600 pieces per day exceeds 1 percentage point, less than half of the couriers who deliver less than 100 pieces per day, and the number of couriers who deliver less than 200 pieces per day accounts for 80%. However, more than 50% of the couriers have a monthly income of no more than 5,000 yuan, and only 1.3% of the monthly income of more than 10,000 yuan.
Technical cage: Also terminal delivery, the situation of takeaway riders is even more lamentable. On September 8, 2020, People published an article titled "Takeaway Riders, Trapped in the System", pointing out that the systems and algorithms of meituan and Ele.me platform companies are imprisoned, and the takeaway riders suffer from the continuous compression of delivery time and high overtime fines. Under the penalty mechanism, the delivery volume of delivery workers has increased, but the salary has decreased. Machine algorithms have become a tool for the platform side to exploit the value of workers, and many takeaway brothers can only be forced to change careers.
(2) Improve the current human dilemma
Strengthen training and improve the quality of practitioners. As the tertiary industry with the fastest growth rate of employees, the logistics industry is also a new growth point of the national economy, and the construction of the industry talent team is crucial. In December 2021, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Education, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the 14th Five-Year Plan for Vocational Skills Training. This is China's first five-year special plan for national vocational skills training, proposing the cultivation of high-skilled talents in modern service industries and other industries. The training of logistics employees shall start from job skills, safety skills, legal awareness, service awareness, etc., and implement a system of certificates for special industry personnel in the express delivery industry.
(Shentong courier holding smart device)
Protect rights and interests and avoid the loss of employees. In order to protect the rights and interests of 20 million truck drivers, at the end of 2021, the Ministry of Transport, together with the Ministry of Public Security and 16 other departments, jointly issued the "Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of the Rights and Interests of Truck Drivers", requiring online freight platform enterprises not to induce cargo owners to unreasonablely reduce prices, and not to induce drivers to compete at low prices and overtime work.
Similarly, in 2021, the Ministry of Communications, the State Post Bureau and other seven departments also formulated the "Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Protecting the Legitimate Rights and Interests of Courier Groups", specifically deployed the rights and interests protection of couriers, and proposed corresponding measures for problems such as unfair market competition and regional differentiated fees, to solve the problems of unstable income, incomplete protection and low recognition of couriers.
In terms of the protection of the rights and interests of takeaway brothers, on October 8, 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an Administrative Guidance Letter to Meituan, requiring it to carry out comprehensive rectification around improving the platform commission charging mechanism and algorithm rules, safeguarding the legitimate interests of small and medium-sized catering businesses on the platform, and strengthening the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of takeaway riders, and submitting a self-inspection compliance report to the State Administration for Market Regulation for three consecutive years.
From the current development situation, express transportation, express delivery and takeaway unmanned and intelligent still have a long way to go, from "someone" to "no one" the transformation can not be achieved overnight, "people-oriented" will also be the main theme of the logistics industry for a long time.
(Author: Man Zhi)
Editor: Xiaolan