Local elections in India are about to start, and foreign media: peasant protests have spawned new parties or stirred up the situation

The Paper's reporter Xu Zhenhua intern Yuan Mingqing

Recently, elections in five Indian states are imminent. The peasant protests that have lasted for more than a year have spawned new political parties, and there is concern about whether this will affect India's local elections.

The Diplomat magazine said in a Feb. 9 article that in three of the five states that are about to hold state assembly elections are expected to be affected by farmers' protests, namely Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

On November 19, 2021, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi abruptly announced his decision to repeal three agricultural bills that have caused widespread farmers' protests. The Diplomat article notes that today, the influence of the peasant protests has expanded to political elections. There is a lot of concern about whether India's peasant protests will remain politically agitated or, as the AAP party did before, successfully transform from a social movement to a political party that will soon usher in a dazzling electoral victory.

"Alternative"

On 20 February, Punjab will usher in local legislative elections. According to Diplomat, 104 candidates with backgrounds in peasant protests will run in the state's elections. They had planned to conduct elections under the name of the United Social Front (SSM) of Sanyukt Samaj Morcha. But since the SSM has not yet registered with the Election Commission, the vast majority of candidates under the party's umbrella will participate in the Punjab elections in their personal capacity.

The SSM was born out of the United Farmers Front (SKM) (SKM) that led farmers in protest against three farm bills. In its propaganda, the SSM stressed that the past practices of other parties in Punjab were failures and that it was a practical alternative. SSM promised the public that they would form an incorruptible and transparent government.

The Diplomat article notes that the SSM does not mention the word "party" in its name, but instead refers to itself as Morcha (meaning "front"), emphasizing that it is a coalition of peasant groups and paying tribute to the peasant protest movement that gave birth to it.

The SSM's symbolic strategy helps it maintain the positive factors in the peasant movement, turning it into votes. The SSM also plans to expand the voter base from farmers. This can be seen in the diverse careers on its list of candidates: candidates include professors, doctors, lawyers, agronomists and social activists, among others.

After Modi announced the repeal of three new farmers' laws in November last year, farmer groups that have been protest www.thepaper.cn ing for a long time welcomed this, but still asked the government to follow up on other agricultural issues, showing that "the protest sentiment will not immediately subside".

But SSM also faces a number of obstacles. Many farmer groups were unhappy with the formation of the SSM and chose not to join the SSM. This has somewhat divised and weakened the momentum of the peasant movement. It is also a challenge to transform a social movement into a political force involved in the election campaign with limited resources and time. As a result, SSM inevitably leaves the impression of lack of experience and organizational structure.

According to India Today reported on February 9, SSM recently organized an election rally and encountered the problem of too few participants. SSM leaders also acknowledged the party's low resources and lack of electoral political experience.

Lesson?

The Diplomat article points out that social movements are often constrained by time and space, and can only last for a short period of time, and it is difficult to solve the problem of collective action by establishing an organizational structure. Thus, activists have sought to promote the transformation of social movements into political party forces in order to mobilize continuously and extensively. But that doesn't necessarily work out.

The experience of the Indian Civilian Party (AAP) is an example. In 2011, Indian social activist Anna Hazare and official-turned-activist Arvind Kejriwal led a series of mass protests in India, collectively known as the India Anti-Corruption Movement (IAC).

The IAC calls for a strong anti-corruption mechanism, the Jan Lokpal Bill. Activists in the IAC movement argue that this is the only way to investigate and eliminate corruption in political and bureaucratic institutions with minimal government intervention. The movement has also received widespread support and participation.

In November 2012, with the energy of an anti-corruption campaign, KegiRivar and his companions founded the Indian Civilian Party (AAP), which it said would represent "ordinary people." With the momentum of the movement, AAP's election debut was very impressive. In December 2013, the AAP, led by Kejirivar, ran for the New Delhi Parliamentary Election, winning 28 seats. However, in 2014, KegiRivar resigned as Chief Minister of New Delhi after 49 days in power, meaning that the AAP maintained only a short-lived government at the time.

Still, the AAP received 30 percent of the vote in that election, and few Indian political parties have achieved such results when they first entered the election.

In 2015, AAP made a "strong comeback" in the New Delhi parliamentary elections, winning 67 seats; in 2020, AAP won 62 seats. Over the past decade, the AAP has managed to gain power in the New Delhi parliamentary elections each time, but has had little success in elections in other states.

The Diplomat article notes that it is uncertain whether the SSM will succeed today like the AAP; but what is certain is that with the emergence of new political actors and new political alliances, electoral competition in Punjab will be more intense than before. Before 2012, Punjab maintained a political ecology of bipartisan competition; in 2022, the state ushered in a "five-legged" situation.

This growing political competition can easily lead to more dispersed votes, so many polls suggest that there may be a floating parliament in Punjab (a situation in which no political party in a parliamentary state has an absolute majority in parliament). Even if the SSM doesn't win a seat, if it gets enough votes, it's a victory for the party.

Responsible editor: Hu Zhenqing Photo editor: Jiang Lidong

Proofreader: Liu Wei