【The fifth wave of the epidemic has caused Hong Kong's economy to decline】
The fifth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong broke out on 27 December 2021, and the SAR government took measures such as banning restaurants and evening markets from 7 January 2022, affecting the retail service industry, while the supply chain continued to be blocked and affected entrepot trade. These negative effects are beginning to show. London-based, information-based IHS Markit, which announced its January 2022 Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), fell 1.9 points to 48.9 points month-on-month, below 50 again since January 2021, falling into contraction zone, reflecting another downward trend after 11 months of economic expansion in Hong Kong.
On 7 February 2022, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Yu Wai Man said in a video briefing to the Legislative Council that the impact of Omilon on the global and Hong Kong economies may further emerge in the first half of 2022, which may pose greater pressure on the business atmosphere in Hong Kong in the first quarter, and the unemployment rate is expected to rebound.
Morgan Stanley, a major international investment bank, said in a report that it expects the resumption of customs clearance between Hong Kong and the mainland to be postponed until July 2022, so the forecast of Hong Kong retail sales in 2020 will be sharply reduced from the original estimate of 7% to only 1%.
Observers pointed out that the fifth wave of the epidemic must be controlled before the end of March 2022, and Hong Kong must establish a large database-based circulation traceability system and mechanism in the process of controlling the fifth wave of the epidemic to restore customs clearance with the mainland, otherwise, on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the return to the motherland and the change of government, Hong Kong will fall into economic recession and social unrest.
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