(Report Producer/Author: Changjiang Securities, Xu Ke, Wu Bohua, Ma Jun, Ren Nan, Jia Shaobo)
The top-level design continues to advance, and the national hydrogen energy demonstration city cluster has been successively landed
2002-2014: Policy support for hydrogen fuel cells as a cutting-edge technology research and development
During the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, the three-vertical and three-horizontal strategy of electric vehicles was established, and fuel cells were taken as the focus of national research and development for the first time. As early as 2002, the "Tenth Five-Year" National High-tech Technology Research and Development Plan (863 Plan) electric vehicle major special project established a "three vertical and three horizontal" research and development layout for electric vehicles with hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles as the "three verticals" and multi-energy powertrain control systems, drive motors and power batteries as the "three horizontals". During this period, a breakthrough of "zero" hydrogen-air fuel cell engine has been achieved, and a hydrogen-air fuel cell engine with a net output of 60kW for passenger cars and a net output of 30kW has been successfully developed and loaded into operation.
Since then, hydrogen energy has been developed as a cutting-edge technology, and the development of hydrogen energy policy has been slow. In October 2006, the National "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" Science and Technology Development Plan listed hydrogen energy and fuel cell technology as the frontier technology of advanced deployment and carried out key research; in March 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue" to include hydrogen storage materials in the category of encouraged development; in 2012, the State Council issued the "State Council on Printing and Distributing the Development Plan for Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry" to actively promote the synchronous development of the fuel cell vehicle and vehicle hydrogen energy industry and the international community; in July 2012, the State Council issued the "" The Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of National Strategic Emerging Industries will include fuel cell vehicles in the key development direction of national strategic emerging industries. Overall, in the more than ten years from 2002 to 2014, the focus of new energy vehicles is to promote the industrialization of pure electric vehicles, and fuel battery vehicles are still in the cutting-edge technology research stage.
2014-2019: R&D of the whole industry chain from fuel cells to production and storage applications
From cutting-edge technology to the research and development of the whole industry chain. In 2014, the State Council issued the "Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)" officially took "hydrogen energy and fuel cells" as the strategic direction of energy science and technology innovation, and since then, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Energy Bureau, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology and other ministries and commissions have issued documents to support the technology of the whole industry chain of power batteries and fuel cells, achieve revolutionary breakthroughs, and realize the demonstration operation and promotion and application of electric vehicles. It shows that fuel cells are gradually out of the "laboratory", and in the process of landing applications, the whole industry chain needs to be collectively reduced.
2019 so far: the state, provinces and cities, demonstration groups have been promoted together, and the hydrogen energy policy has been wrong
In 2019, the State Council for the first time wrote "promoting infrastructure construction such as charging (hydrogenation)" into the "Government Work Report", and since then the development of hydrogen energy has opened a new chapter. Hydrogen energy was mentioned for the first time in the 2019 Government Work Report, and in April 2020, the Energy Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment) clarified the energy attributes of hydrogen for the first time. According to the mainland's current catalogue of hazardous chemicals (2015 edition), hydrogen is defined as a hazardous chemical, and its production and transportation use is strictly restricted, and the cost of hydrogen refueling station construction investment and approval time increases, affecting the development speed of the hydrogen energy industry. After the follow-up policy is officially released, it is expected to effectively promote the revision of relevant laws and regulations and standards, and accelerate the application of hydrogen energy.
Since then, a number of policies involving hydrogen energy have been introduced in 2020-2021, and on September 16, 2020, the five ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on Carrying Out Demonstration Applications of Fuel Cell Vehicles" to further promote the demonstration application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; In March 2021, the state issued the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035", which clearly listed hydrogen energy as an important area of cutting-edge science and technology and industrial transformation, and planned to lay out a number of future industries.
Industrial regulations and product standards are benchmarked against Europe and the United States, and the pace of promotion is gradually accelerating
Compared with developed countries in the mainland, there is still a certain gap in many links in the hydrogen energy industry chain, fuel cell engine power, life and mileage need to be improved, hydrogen storage and transportation technology bottlenecks, infrastructure is not perfect, scale benefits have not yet been formed, hydrogen energy utilization costs are high, and so on. At this stage, policy subsidies are still needed, especially in the application and promotion stage, and only with policy support can we achieve a positive incentive cycle of mass production, cost reduction and expansion of production.
A number of hydrogen-related standards are vacant, and Guangdong has taken the lead in clarifying the standardization planning roadmap
According to the "Guangdong Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Standard System and Planning Roadmap (2020-2024)", the national, industry, local, group and other levels of standards are screened and classified, and a detailed list of standard systems covering 127 national standards, 11 industry standards, 2 local standards, 3 group standards, and 94 standards to be formulated is sorted out. As far as the current standard system is concerned, the standards for storage and transportation, fuel cell systems and vehicle applications are relatively perfect, and the basic standards for management, preparation and filling are relatively missing. Therefore, the more demanding multi-set of standards to be developed in terms of foundation and management, preparation and refueling.
Guangdong Province has formulated a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle standardization planning roadmap in accordance with the principle of "strategic, forward-looking, scientific, critical and operable". Develop no less than 15 national standards or industry standards in 2020-2021 and no less than 25 in 2023-2024, and promote the integration of the standard system into industrial policies.
The four key technologies of hydrogen energy were listed in the National Energy Administration's "2022 Energy Industry Standard Plan Project Guidelines". On January 20, 2022, the National Energy Administration issued the "2022 Energy Industry Standard Plan Approval Guide", in which the key directions of the hydrogen energy key technology field standard plan include: electrolyte hydrogen production and comprehensive application, hydrogen-electric coupling technology, hydrogen fuel cell power stations, and key components of fuel cells. With the establishment of relevant standards, the industry will have standards to follow, which is conducive to the rapid growth of future health. (Source: Future Think Tank)
Fuel cell standards are gradually benchmarked against developed countries, and the target is fully controllable
From the perspective of technology research and development support, various ministries and commissions (mainly the Ministry of Science and Technology) have given financial support to the fuel cell industry chain and listed the quantitative indicators of technical assessment, from fuel cells to parts research and development, to the requirements of batch preparation indicators for parts, and then to the storage and transportation equipment and hydrogen production equipment technology breakthroughs have launched various special projects. In the early stage, fuel cell vehicles focused on the breakthrough of the whole vehicle.
As early as 2012, in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Electric Vehicle Science and Technology", it is required to develop fuel battery cars and buses that have reached the international advanced level for breakthroughs in high-end cutting-edge technology. Master the on-board hydrogen supply system technology, realize the independent development of key components, master the next generation of fuel battery vehicle power system platform technology, develop the next generation of fuel cell cars and bus products, and conduct operation assessment. Among them, the demonstration assessment indicators include: the specific power of the fuel cell stack and the specific power of the system are 1000W/kg, 300W/kg, -10 °C low temperature storage and start-up, not less than 5000 hours of service life; the driving range of the whole vehicle passenger car is not less than 350 kilometers, and the hydrogen consumption of the demonstration assessment economic 100 kilometers is less than 1.2kg.
In 2017-2018, fuel cell systems are the focus of breakthroughs. The 2018 annual project declaration guide for the "new energy vehicle" key special project released in October 2017 mainly made detailed technical requirements for the fuel cell system of various types of vehicles, for example, passenger cars need to develop 2 full-power fuel cell cars, which have certain assessment requirements for fuel cell rated power, service life, mileage and hydrogen consumption, which are improved compared with the requirements in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" electric vehicle special plan.
After 2019, we will focus on breakthrough fuel cell components. In 2019, the Ministry of Science and Technology issued the "2019 Annual Project Declaration Guide for Key Projects of "Renewable Energy and Hydrogen Energy Technology"", focusing on the fuel cell membrane electrodes, air compressors, hydrogen recirculation pumps, 70MPa vehicle-mounted high-pressure hydrogen storage bottles, vehicle-mounted liquid storage and supply hydrogen technology, 70MPa hydrogen refueling station pressurized refueling key equipment and other research and development directions to start special projects, and also gave assessment indicators, such as the platinum load of membrane electrodes needs to be reduced to less than 0.4mg/cm2, and the compression of air compressors is not less than 2.5 and so on, requiring hydrogen refueling machines and hydrogen compressors to be based on independent research and development, and the performance is not lower than that of similar international products.
In the 2020 key special project declaration guidelines released subsequently, in addition to the key breakthroughs in the quantitative production technology of proton exchange membranes, carbon paper and catalysts, certain requirements have been made for hydrogen storage, liquid hydrogen storage, storage, transportation and technical breakthroughs in high-pressure large-capacity tube bundle containers; in the 2021 project declaration, 4 technical directions such as hydrogen energy green production and scale transfer system, hydrogen energy safe storage and rapid transmission and distribution system, hydrogen energy convenient quality modification and efficient power system and "hydrogen into ten thousand homes" comprehensive demonstration are planned to be launched 18 The project is planned to arrange a state-allocated fund of 795 million yuan.
The demonstration group was introduced with an award in lieu of compensation policy, and the vehicle subsidy was transitioned to a point reward
In the past, hydrogen energy national supplements were mainly concentrated in the direction of fuel cell vehicles, mainly following the release of new energy policies
As early as 2009, fuel cell vehicles began to enjoy some state subsidies. In 2009, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology issued the "Notice on Carrying out Pilot Demonstration and Promotion of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles", carrying out demonstration and promotion pilots of new energy vehicles in 13 cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, subsidizing new energy vehicles in the field of public services, and the subsidies for pure electric vehicles for public service passenger cars and light commercial vehicles that meet the standards can reach 60,000 yuan / vehicle, fuel cell vehicle subsidies are as much as 250,000 yuan / vehicle, and the subsidy standard for buses and buses above 10 meters is 600,000 yuan / vehicle. At the same time, the document requires local financial and political leaders to arrange certain funds to give appropriate subsidies to the purchase of energy-saving and new energy vehicles, the construction of supporting facilities, maintenance and other related expenditures.
In 2010, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Subsidy for Private Purchase of New Energy Vehicles", which piloted a one-time subsidy of 3,000 yuan / kWh for private purchase of new energy vehicles in five cities of Hangzhou, Hefei, Shanghai, Changchun and Shenzhen, of which the maximum subsidy for plug-in hybrid and pure electric passenger cars was 50,000 yuan / vehicle and 60,000 yuan / vehicle, and the policy did not mention fuel cell vehicles.
In 2013, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology issued the document "Notice on Continuing to Carry Out the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", which requires that the promotion and application of new energy vehicles be continued from 2013 to 2015. Considering the scale effect, technological progress and other factors, the subsidy standard is declining year by year, of which the subsidy standard for fuel cell passenger cars and commercial vehicles in 2013 is 200,000 yuan / vehicle and 500,000 yuan / vehicle, and the fuel cell vehicle subsidy standard in 2014 and 2015 is planned to decrease by 10% and 20% respectively on the basis of the 2013 standard (that is, 180,000 yuan / vehicle and 160,000 yuan / vehicle, respectively). In the further policy issued in 2014, the subsidy decline ratio in 2014 and 2015 was adjusted to 5% and 10% respectively (that is, 190,000 yuan / vehicle and 180,000 yuan / vehicle, respectively).
In 2014, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on Incentives for the Construction of New Energy Vehicle Charging Facilities", which rewarded 4 million yuan per station for new fuel cell vehicle hydrogen refueling stations that meet national technical standards and have a daily hydrogen refueling capacity of not less than 200 kilograms, and the subsidy for hydrogen refueling stations was proposed for the first time at the national level.
The intensity of subsidies has not declined, but standards such as technical requirements have been improved, and subsidies have been further differentiated
In 2015, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2016-2020", which further clarified the specific subsidy standards for different types of new energy vehicles, and planned to implement the slope reduction mechanism from 2017, taking 2016 as the standard, down 20% in 2017-2018, and 40% in 2019-2020, to force the development of new energy vehicle companies. However, fuel cell vehicles will not retreat for the time being, of which in 2016, the subsidies for fuel cell passenger cars, light passenger vans, and medium and heavy passenger vans were 200,000 yuan / car, 300,000 yuan / car and 500,000 yuan / vehicle, respectively. At the same time, further requirements are made for the mileage of fuel cell vehicles subsidized by the central government, of which the pure electric mileage of passenger cars and buses is required to be no less than 150 kilometers, and the mileage of trucks and special vehicles is not less than 200 kilometers.
Although the subsidy policy implemented in 2017 has not declined, the subsidy requirements have been further refined, and the driving range has been increased to more than 300 kilometers, and the amount of power of the fuel cell system has also been further divided. (In fact, as early as 2013, the "Notice on Continuing to Carry out the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" for electric passenger cars has begun to use mileage instead of the original standard for differentiated subsidies, but there was no differentiated distinction between fuel cell vehicles at that time.
In 2018, the four ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Adjusting and Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", which remained unchanged for fuel-fired battery vehicles, of which fuel cell passenger cars were changed to subsidies according to the rated power of the fuel cell system, the subsidy ceiling was 200,000 yuan / vehicle, fuel cell buses and special vehicles adopted a fixed subsidy method, and the subsidy standard was still 300,000 yuan / vehicle and 500,000 yuan / vehicle.
After the withdrawal of the national subsidy in April 2020, the fuel cell vehicle subsidy policy was independently released
In 2019, the ground compensation for new energy vehicles was cancelled, and the national compensation requirements gradually declined. In 2019, the four ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", which pointed out that local governments should improve the policy, and after the transition period (march 26, 2019 to June 25, 2019 is the transition period), the purchase subsidy for new energy vehicles (except new energy buses and fuel cell vehicles) will no longer be given, and will be used to support the construction of charging (hydrogenation) infrastructure "short boards" and supporting operation services. This is also the hydrogen refueling station after it was written into the government work report, and it was again specially pointed out in the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. Fuel cell vehicles sold during the transition period will be subsidized by 0.8 times the corresponding standard in 2018, and the subsequent policy will extend this subsidy standard to April 22, 2020.
The policy of substituting awards for compensation is gradually brewing. The "Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued on April 23, 2020, said that the current purchase subsidy for fuel cell vehicles will be adjusted to select cities or regions with foundations, positives and characteristics, focusing on the technical research and industrialization application of key components to carry out demonstrations, and the central government will adopt the method of "awarding instead of making up" to reward the demonstration cities. Strive to establish a hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry chain through about 4 years, make breakthroughs in key core technologies, and form a good situation of reasonable layout and coordinated development. Since then, the promotion policy of fuel cell vehicles has been independently chapterd and introduced separately.
The subsidy policy of fuel cell + hydrogen energy demonstration city cluster was introduced, and the upper limit of the four-year reward national subsidy was 1.87 billion yuan. In 2020, the five ministries (compared with the previous new energy vehicle subsidy policy to increase the Ministry of Energy) issued the "Notice on Carrying out Fuel Cell Vehicle Demonstration Applications", the core meanings are:
Support method: During the demonstration period, the five departments will adopt the method of "substituting awards for compensation" to reward the shortlisted urban agglomerations in accordance with their goals. The incentive funds shall be used by local governments and enterprises for the industrialization of key core technologies of fuel cell vehicles, the introduction of talents and team building, as well as the demonstration and application of new models and new technologies, and shall not be used to support fuel cell vehicle production investment projects and hydrogenation infrastructure construction;
Demonstration content: 1) Build a fuel cell vehicle industry chain, achieve breakthroughs in the research and development of relevant basic materials, key components and vehicle products and preliminary industrialization applications; 2) Carry out the demonstration and application of new technologies and models of fuel cell vehicles, clarify suitable application scenarios, and focus on promoting the industrialization application of fuel cell vehicles in the field of medium- and long-distance, medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles; 3) Explore effective business operation models and continuously improve economy; 4) Improve the policy system environment and establish a hydrogen energy industry chain support policy system. It is necessary to clarify the energy positioning of hydrogen and introduce management measures for the approval of the construction of hydrogen refueling stations;
Selection of demonstration city clusters: local voluntary declaration and expert review methods are determined. The reporting city should break the administrative regional restrictions and select the city where the excellent enterprises in the industrial chain are located nationwide for alliance;
Demonstration period and extra-regional subsidy policy: In order to promote the rational layout of the industry, in principle, it is not appropriate for places outside the demonstration area to give purchase subsidies for the promotion of fuel cell vehicles, and the demonstration period is tentatively set at four years;
We believe that the introduction of the fuel cell vehicle demonstration application subsidy policy shows that the independent development of fuel cell vehicles and electric vehicles according to their respective suitable application scenarios has become an important strategic direction for the future country. More importantly, the points policy of awarding compensation focuses on promoting the cost reduction of the whole industry chain rather than just car companies and hydrogen refueling stations, for the whole vehicle 2021 1.2 points / standard car, for bipolar plates (reward points 0.20 points / car), membrane electrodes, air compressors, proton exchange membranes (0.25 points / vehicle), catalysts, carbon paper, hydrogen circulation system (0.30 points / vehicle), for the use of hydrogen terminals in 2021 reward points 6 points / 100 tons (cost compliance with the increase of rewards 1 points / 100 tons, Clean hydrogen plus bonus 3 cents/100 tons, transport radius
At present, the strength of local compensation is still relatively large, involving many aspects of the industrial chain
In addition to the national supplement, the provinces and cities have also issued various policies to subsidize and support all aspects of the hydrogen energy industry chain, and the subsidies involve hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and transportation, hydrogen refueling station construction, terminal hydrogen, fuel cell vehicle purchase, fuel cell parts and components, etc., of which hydrogen refueling station construction and operation subsidies are the mainstay.
Local subsidies for hydrogen production: The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission exempts the basic electricity fee for the electricity consumption of more than 50% of the electricity consumption of the electrolysis hydrogen production integration station in the valley period; Inner Mongolia is duty-free for the import of key equipment for hydrogen production; Sichuan Province has certain preferential treatment for the electricity price of electrolyzed water hydrogen production enterprises, achieving a household electricity price of about 0.3 yuan / kwh;
Local subsidies for the construction of hydrogen refueling stations:
Subsidy conditions: Most local governments have certain scale requirements for hydrogen refueling station subsidies, mainly focusing on hydrogen refueling stations with a hydrogen refueling capacity of 500~1000kg/day and more than 1000kg/day;
Station construction subsidies: The station construction subsidies are all one-time subsidies (allocated in three years in Shanghai), and the subsidy scale is about 30%-50% of the investment in building the station, and there is a certain upper limit. For example, Shanghai will give a one-time construction subsidy of 30% of the investment amount (not more than 5 million, 2022), Weifang subsidy of 1.6 million yuan (500~1000kg/day, 2022), Zibo subsidy of 20-30% of the investment amount (not more than 5 million), Guangdong subsidy of 2.5 million yuan (integrated comprehensive energy supply station, to be built by 2025), etc.;
Year by year decline: Or taking into account the downward trend of the construction cost of hydrogen refueling stations in the future, some cities will pay tribute to the construction of hydrogen refueling stations year by year, such as: Shanghai's subsidies for each hydrogen refueling station built in 2022-2024 are capped at 5 million yuan, 4 million yuan and 3 million yuan; Weifang City's construction subsidies for hydrogen refueling stations with a scale of 1000kg/day in 2022 and 2023 are 3.5 million yuan and 3 million yuan, respectively.
Hydrogen refueling station operation subsidies:
Subsidy strength: Terminal hydrogen sales price subsidies are concentrated in 10-20 yuan / kg, such as: 2022 Shanghai subsidy standard is 15 yuan / kg, Weifang city subsidy standard is 15 yuan / kg, Zibo City 10 yuan / kg, Foshan City 18 yuan / kg, Guangzhou 18 yuan / kg, Jiaxing City 15 yuan / kg, Chengdu City 20 yuan / kg;
Subsidy requirements: The cost of hydrogen will show a downward trend in the long run, but the short-term terminal hydrogen cost is higher, and the core intention of the subsidy is to reduce the current terminal hydrogen price to a relatively economic situation. However, in order to promote the rapid decline in costs, the policy also has certain requirements for the price after the subsidy, otherwise it will not be subsidized, such as: Shanghai requires that the terminal price be reduced to less than 35 yuan / kg by 2025, Weifang requires that the price after the subsidy in 2022 does not exceed 38 yuan / kg, Foshan requires no more than 36 yuan / kg, Guangzhou city requires no more than 30 yuan / kg, etc.;
Subsidy decline: the annual operating subsidy is reduced by 2-5 yuan / kg.
Vehicle Purchase Subsidy:
Supporting central subsidies: local support is relatively high, Beijing fuel cell vehicles in accordance with the central and local 1:0.5 ratio of municipal financial subsidies, Shandong Jining, Shandong Jinan and Zhejiang Jiaxing according to 1:1 subsidies (buses, logistics vehicles), Shanghai according to 1 points 200,000 yuan to reward vehicle manufacturers;
Assessment mileage: Like the demonstration city cluster, local subsidies are also gradually precise, requiring vehicles to drive the ordered mileage before receiving corresponding incentives or subsidies, such as: Shanghai for heavy trucks with a mileage of not less than 20,000 kilometers / year before 2025, can get a reward of no more than 20,000 yuan / year, Guangdong Foshan for the annual mileage of 1-5 kilometers of heavy trucks to give 2.3 yuan / km subsidy. (Source: Future Think Tank)
A number of provinces and cities have introduced hydrogen energy plans, and the output value in 2025 may exceed one trillion yuan
The construction of fuel cell vehicles + hydrogen refueling stations is the focus of future promotion and application
At the same time that the ministries and commissions of the state have intensively issued hydrogen energy-related policies, local governments have responded positively, and many provinces and cities such as Beijing, Guangdong, Hebei, and Henan have issued hydrogen energy industry development plans or fuel cell vehicle industry development plans, and some provinces and cities such as Guangxi, Jilin, and Liaoning have issued new energy vehicle industry development plans or "14th Five-Year Plan" development plans that mention the development goals of the hydrogen energy industry.
According to incomplete statistics, 13 of the provinces that issued the plan have issued fuel cell promotion plans, planning to promote a total of 101,000 fuel cell vehicles by 2025, of which Beijing, Hebei, Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai and Inner Mongolia each plan to promote a total of 10,000 vehicles; 14 provinces plan to build a total of 1,104 hydrogen refueling stations by 2025, Guangdong Province plans to promote 300, the country is in the forefront, and Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu and Shandong are planned to 2025 The annual cumulative construction of 100; the output value of the whole industry chain, 7 provinces plan to reach 470 billion yuan by 2025 hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry chain output value (some provinces and cities plan for 2025 before the target, the actual output value will be higher in 2025).
In 2025, the output value of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry may exceed one trillion yuan. If the six provinces and cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Henan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia) that simultaneously publish the number of fuel cell promotions, hydrogen refueling stations and the output value of the whole industry chain are calculated, by 2025, the cumulative promotion of fuel vehicles will be 51,000, the cumulative operation of 474 hydrogen refueling stations, and the output value of the whole industry chain will be 400 billion yuan, then the proportion of the industrial chain output value to the number of fuel cell vehicles promoted and the number of hydrogen refueling stations put into operation will be 7.8431 million yuan / vehicle and 844 million yuan / seat, respectively. According to this ratio, linear extrapolation to the above-mentioned 13 provinces that have disclosed the vehicle promotion and hydrogen refueling station construction plans (Ningxia only disclosed the construction of 2 hydrogen refueling stations, temporarily excluded), the corresponding hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry output value of 792.2 billion yuan and 931.6 billion yuan, respectively, considering that the relevant plans of other provinces in the country will be released in the future, and the output value of the national hydrogen energy industry will reach more than one trillion yuan in 2025.
Europe's 2020-2030 hydrogen energy strategic investment covers the whole industrial chain of hydrogen production, storage and transportation, hydrogenation, as well as carbon capture technology upgrading, hydrogen steelmaking, etc., and the total investment is expected to be about 320-460 billion euros. Referring to the investment plan of the EU hydrogen energy strategy, wind power and photovoltaics account for more than 70% of the trillion output value of hydrogen energy in the future, and the higher proportion is hydrogen storage and transportation hydrogenation (16.7%), electrolyzers (8.5%) and carbon capture technology (2.8%).
Compared with the planning of European and American countries, China's hydrogen energy industry planning is catching up. The United States plans to put into operation 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations by 2025 (excluding forklifts), promote 150,000 fuel cell vehicles and 125,000 forklifts; Europe plans to put into operation about 1,500 hydrogen refueling stations by 2025; and Japan plans to build about 900 hydrogen refueling stations by 2030. China's 13 provinces plan to promote a total of 101,000 fuel cell vehicles by 2025, and 14 provinces plan to build a total of 1,104 hydrogen refueling stations by 2025, which is comparable to that of developed countries, so for the whole country, the mainland target is also the world's leading level.
The three demonstration city clusters have carefully built hydrogen energy planning
In August 2021, the five ministries and commissions of the state officially approved Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong as the first batch of fuel cell vehicle demonstration application city clusters in China. The main reason is that the industrial layout of these three urban agglomerations has obvious advantages and the demonstration application system is mature, for example, as of the time of the approval of the document, 16 hydrogen refueling stations have been completed and put into operation, with an annual hydrogen production capacity of 3 million tons, and the number of fuel battery vehicles has been promoted to 1,908. On December 25, 2021, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Fuel Cell Vehicle Demonstration City Cluster Launch Conference was held in the Daxing International Hydrogen Energy Demonstration Zone, marking the official launch of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Fuel Cell Vehicle Demonstration City Cluster, and at this point, the construction of the first batch of fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters has all started.
The core of the development of the whole industry chain promotes the decline of hydrogen terminal costs
We believe that this point policy is a policy carefully formulated by the central government after absorbing the lessons learned from the fraud of pure electric new energy vehicles, and the ultimate goal is to reduce the cost of terminal hydrogen through the whole industry chain. Beishangguang expects that the terminal cost usage price will be reduced to less than 30/35 yuan / kg in 2025, when the operating economy of fuel cell vehicles will be very competitive.
Beijing: In April 2021, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology issued the "Beijing Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Implementation Plan (2021-2025)", proposing to achieve a breakthrough in the key technology of the hydrogen energy industry chain such as proton exchange membranes and compressors by 2023, comprehensively reduce the terminal application cost by more than 30%, and reach the international leading level of hydrogen energy economic performance indicators in 2025;
Shanghai: The Shanghai Development and Reform Commission proposed in the "Several Policies on Supporting the Development of the Fuel Cell Vehicle Industry in the City" that before the end of 2025, for hydrogen refueling stations that have obtained gas business licenses (vehicle hydrogen), the retail price of hydrogen does not exceed 35 yuan / kg, according to the actual annual sales volume of hydrogen, the main body of hydrogen refueling station operators will be given subsidies;
Guangdong: The Provincial Development and Reform Commission said in the "Guangdong Province Accelerated Construction of Fuel Cell Vehicle Demonstration City Cluster Action Plan (2021-2025)" draft for comments that by the end of the demonstration period, Guangdong's annual hydrogen supply exceeds 100,000 tons, about 200 hydrogen refueling stations are built, and the price of vehicle hydrogen terminals is reduced to less than 30 yuan / kg.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].